The Patriots travel to New Orleans this week, riding a modest two-game winning streak. They have blown out Carolina at home and beaten the Bills 23-20 on the road on Sunday night.
The Patriots can achieve their first three-game winning streak in three years with a win on Sunday, keeping pace a game behind the Bills, who play on Monday night in Atlanta against the Falcons. This week, in the division, the Jets are the “home team” in London against the Broncos, while the Dolphins host the Chargers in Miami.
The Saints forced five turnovers against the Giants last week, erasing a 14-3 deficit, and ran back a fumble 86 yards for a game-clinching touchdown to win their first game of the year 26-14.
CBS will broadcast this week’s game, which can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4. Spero Dedes will handle play-by-play duties with Adam Archuleta as the color analyst. Aditi Kinkhabwala will provide analysis from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots’ flagship radio station, 98.5 The Sports Hub, with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
We at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2025 to analyze some of the game’s key matchups and predict the game’s outcome.
Some Quick Notes:
The Saints, except for the Seattle game, have been in all of their other games, which also featured close losses against Arizona, San Francisco, and Buffalo. They can stick around with anyone, as referenced by their record.
But although they play hard, they are not a very good team and rank 31st in overall team DVOA (22nd on offense, 29th on defense, and 32nd on STs).
The Patriots this week are in the midst of a three-game road trip, Buffalo, New Orleans, and Tennessee next week, before they return to Gillette to face the Cleveland Browns. They can really get the team rolling the right way if they take care of business in the next few winnable games.
Now, we can examine some key matchups and determine who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
Patriots RBs vs. Saints Front Seven — Edge New Orleans
The Patriots’ running game is stuck in no man’s land thus far this season. The Patriots’ running game is 32nd (dead last) in DVOA. The backs aren’t making people miss, and they’re not breaking tackles. And that has to improve. It is not a matter of the blocking but the backs themselves.
New Orleans isn’t necessarily good against the run, they are 20th in the league allowing an average of 122. 2 yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush. But until the Patriots can get the backs going, it is hard to think they’ll generate much. Former Patriot NT Davon Godchaux has been playing well.
With Antonio Gibson out for the year, they will have to rely more on Rhamondre Stevenson. They’re not putting too much on TreVeyon Henderson’s plate yet. The question this week, will Terrell Jennings get activated or will new RB Jashaun Corbin get the nod. Corbin was a kick returner in the UFL this spring.
Patriots WRs vs. Saints Secondary — Edge New England
The Patriots’ passing game is rounding into form the past three games. Drake Maye and Stefon Diggs have been building chemistry, with Diggs going over 100 yards the past two games.
The Saints pass defense ranks at #9 in the league, allowing just 209 yards per game. They run a lighter 3-4 defense with a zone match coverage system. That means they’ll match up on vertical routes while dropping into zone coverages if the receivers break off their routes. If it sounds a tad confusing, it is, especially for opposing offenses.
Drake Maye said this week, “Instead of depth and spacing, winning versus match coverage, winning versus man, and winning your one-on-ones is what it comes down to. It comes down to, for me, ball placement, get it out on time and making sure the football is in the right spot for them to catch and run or catch and make a play.”
As film builds on the Saints defense, opponents are flooding the zones and attacking the one-on-one matchups. It will be interesting to see how Josh McDaniels decides to attack this defense. I think this will be a good Hunter Henry type of day. But besides Diggs and Henry, it would be nice to see McDaniels getting Kyle Williams more involved in the passing game.
Big matchups at the tackles this week bear watching. Will Campbell will face Curtis Granderson, while Morgan Moses will face Cameron Jordan who is still playing at a high level at age 36.
Next up, the Saints’ offense:
Saints RBs vs. NE Front Seven — Edge New England
The Patriots have done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents’ running games, and with Milton Williams and Christian Barmore penetrating and creating havoc, teams haven’t been able to run effectively.
The Saints run a lot of RPOs offensively and still have Alvin Kamara. Right guard Cesar Ruiz was back to a full participant on Thursday, so he’ll play this week, but I still like the Patriots interior players disrupting the Saints outside zone runs.
Saints WRs vs. NE Secondary — Edge New England
The Saints have WRs with speed, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Brandin Cooks, but they have been cutting everything short for QB Spencer Rattler who is averaging just 5.6 yards per pass. That is because they don’t trust the OL to protect the QB. New Orleans’ OL is 30th in pass blocking win rate and last in run blocking win rate.
They get the ball out quickly with short, quick passes. They don’t push the ball down the field, and are 28th in air yards per pass. Perhaps this week, at home, they may attempt some play action shots down the field to generate some opportunities.
Look for the Patriots to simulate pressure and dial things up from all over the field this week, to get the Saints behind the sticks and off the field on third downs. Harold Landry will be a player to watch on Sunday. TreVWith the secondary coming together the matchups against the Saints talented and speedy wideouts will bear watching.
Taysom Hill is the “X” factor. He returned last week and always plays a big role.
Special Teams — Edge New England
The Patriots’ special teams units have been very good the past two weeks. Marcus Jones will be facing a team that allowed a 95-yard punt return against Seattle. Shaheed is a dangerous punt returner in his own right with a 40-yarder this season.
But the Patriots units have been on an upswing, and I see that continuing.
Next up, who wins and why…
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Prediction:
The Patriots are feeling very confident after their upset win over Buffalo on Sunday night. Now, they are facing a bad, but pesky 1-4 Saints team on the road. New Orleans played Buffalo hard into the fourth quarter and turned the game against the Giants last week by forcing five turnovers.
And that is the key thing to avoid this week for Mike Vrabel’s team. Avoid letting your press clippings get the best of you, and don’t fall into that turnover trap. The Patriots are a better overall team (it’s been a while since we said that much) than New Orleans. Maye and the offense take care of business on the road, and the Patriots move on to Tennessee.
Patriots 31-17
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A former US Army Special Forces NCO and Officer, Steve has been following the Patriots since their days at Fenway Park. Steve has worked in the film industry and wrote as an Military Editor at SpecialOperations.com, 1945.com as a reporter for the Millbury Daily Voice, Millbury-Sutton Chronicle, and the Grafton News. He's also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)
In New Orleans. Saints have indeed hung with opponents, but lose. It won’t be easy or pretty. I see a low scoring match. Pats 23 Saints 16.