The Patriots return home to Gillette Stadium after a tough road trip. A flood of injuries compounded losses to the Jets and 49ers. Now, they want to get back on track and stop the bleeding.
The Patriots’ old rivals, the Miami Dolphins, are facing them. Surprisingly, the Dolphins enter this week’s game at 1-3. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is on IR with another concussion, but they still have a plethora of weapons on offense. Yet, to this point, they’ve scored fewer points than the Patriots.
FOX will broadcast this week’s game, which can be seen locally in Boston on WFXT-TV Channel 25. Chris Myers will handle play-by-play duties, with Mark Sanchez as the color analyst. Christina Pink will work from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots flagship radio station, 98.5 The Sports Hub, with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
We at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2024 to analyze some of the game’s key matchups and what to expect in the game’s outcome.
So now we can look at some key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
Patriots RBs vs. Dolphins Front Seven — Edge Miami
The Patriots’ running game has hit a rough spot. After pounding the ball for 355 yards in the first two weeks, production has dropped off. While the offensive line play hasn’t been good, the injuries along the way have also taken a toll.
Rhamondre Stevenson has had a fumble in every game, and opponents are now tugging at the ball during every carry. Antonio Gibson may see an uptick in snaps this week in an attempt to reignite the running game.
Miami has been good against the run, allowing 119.5 yards per game, which is in the middle of the NFL’s rankings. They are stout up front and in the middle. Calais Campbell and Zach Seiler will be tough to move off their spot. This week might be a good time to use JaMycal Hasty and Gibson more and sit Stevenson more to get his issues straight.
Patriots WRs vs. Dolphins Secondary — Edge Miami
The Patriots’ passing game is mired in last place in the NFL, averaging a paltry 112.3 yards per game. Jacoby Brissett’s pass protection has been sieve-like, but it has affected him even when he has had time. He’s missed open receivers, held the ball too long, and been off-target. The offense may get Kendrick Bourne back this week.
Miami’s pass defense has been inconsistent so far in 2024. They’ve allowed only 162.5 yards per game, which is fifth-best in the league but have been susceptible to giving up big plays at times. Miami’s pass rush has been so-so but Jaelan Phillips will be looking to pad his stats on Sunday.
But the wide receiver-secondary matchups are rendered moot unless the pass protection improves. “Teams are going to pressure us… So now, it’s about how do we answer and combat that moving forward,” Jacoby Brissett said.
Next up, the Dolphins offense:
Dolphins RBs vs. NE Front Seven — Edge New England
The Dolphins’ running game has suffered from Tua’s loss. With their quarterback issues, teams have been able to slow down De’Von Achane’s running. Raheem Mostert may be able to return this week to bolster the running game, which has a lot of speed. But they’ve also suffered injuries to their OL as well.
The Patriots run defense hasn’t been as stout as the first two weeks. The loss of Ja’Whaun Bentley as an inside linebacker has hurt. Also, setting the edge has been a recurring issue for a few weeks. Davon Godchaux has been solid, but they need a better effort across the board this week.
The defense still ranks ninth, allowing just 99.3 yards rushing per game. They should be able to handle Miami’s rushing attack and force the ball into Huntley’s hands.
Dolphins WRs vs. NE Secondary — Edge New England
The Dolphins’ passing game has really struggled since Tua’s injury. They went with backup Skylar Thompson, who struggled and then was injured. Tim Boyle was next, and he, too, was ineffective. Now, they’ve added former Raven backup QB Tyler Huntley. Huntley has been learning the offense on the go, but he hasn’t yet gotten his timing, chemistry with the receivers, and accuracy down.
It is inconceivable that a Dolphins team with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are averaging just 11.3 points per game (32nd in the NFL) and 187 yards per game passing. Odell Beckham Jr. should return this week.
The Patriots’ secondary has had a rough few weeks. The pass rush hasn’t been effective, and they’ve done a poor job of setting the edge. Those factors have to be fixed, but this week, keeping Huntley inside the pocket and not allowing him to escape to either scramble for yardage or complete plays down the field will be key.
Expect Jon Jones to match up with Hill and Christian Gonzalez, and Waddle to compete. These will be great battles to watch.
Special Teams — Edge New England
The Patriots’ special teams have been a bright spot thus far this season. It is great to see them performing well after being arguably the worst STs units in the league last year, which was a position of strength for so long.
Bryce Barringer is having an All-Pro-type season. He’s averaging 51.7 yards per punt, and has only one touchback and 13 punts inside the 20-yard line on his 17 punts. That is some outstanding work.
Kicker Joey Slye has only missed one field goal, a block against Seattle resulting from a breakdown in blocking. He set a Patriot record with a 63-yard field goal last week. Returner Marcus Jones is averaging 10.6 yards per punt return.
Miami is good in the kicking department with Jason Sanders and former Patriot punter Jake Bailey. They have returner Braxton Berrios, who has a 44-yard punt return against Seattle and a 27-yarder against Tennessee.
Next up, who wins and why…
The Patriots face a tough divisional matchup against a long-time rival. Both teams are struggling right now, at 1-3, and both will be looking to break their losing streaks this week. On Wednesday, the Patriots had a laundry list of injured players, who were either not participating or limited.
Keys to the Game from a Patriots Perspective:
Keep Huntley In the Pocket And Set The Edge —
Huntley is very mobile and athletic. If he escapes containment, he’s a threat to make big plays with his feet, either running or passing. Keeping him bottled up is critical here. They’ll have to contain him, squeeze the pocket, and force him into making a turnover or two to help the struggling offense.
That means the edge players, Keion White, Deatrich Wise, Josh Uche, and Anfernee Jennings (if he’s available), must maintain their rush lane integrity and get a push up the middle.
Reignite the Running Game —
The Patriots MUST find a way to get their running game going again. Part of the issue has been that they’ve fallen behind early in games and have been to pass. But this week, they must return to the success of the first two weeks when they ran the ball for 355 yards.
I would like to see them mix up their running game by using Gibson and JaMycal Hasty more early in the game. They are different types of runners and may catch the Dolphins’ defense off-guard.
Win The Turnover Battle —
When teams are 31st (NE) and 32nd (MIA) in points scored, they need a boost from either the defense or the Special Teams to gain the needed points. Turnovers will be key here. The Patriots must prevent them on offense while forcing them on defense or in the kicking game. Last week, they forced a fumble on a kickoff and recovered it, resulting in their only TD of the game.
This is the way to get an edge and come away with a win.
___________
Prediction:
The Patriots and Dolphins will have a slobber-knocker fest of big hits and defense ruling the day. I don’t expect many points from either team. But a key turnover or return will help the moribund New England offense win the game at home.
New England 16-15
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A former US Army Special Forces NCO and Officer, Steve has been following the Patriots since their days at Fenway Park. Steve has worked in the film industry and wrote as an Military Editor at SpecialOperations.com, 1945.com as a reporter for the Millbury Daily Voice, Millbury-Sutton Chronicle, and the Grafton News. He's also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)
