Prediction:
This one has been circled as a possible AFC Championship Game since early September. Many people had these two teams battling it out for the right to go to the Super Bowl. The winner of this game will go to the Super Bowl for the ninth time…most in NFL history. If there is a better barometer for continued excellence, I don’t know it.
This should be a hard-hitting, physical affair. I would expect the offenses to start slowly and then begin to heat up in the second half as each team makes their offensive adjustments. Some of the keys from a NE perspective that would generate a win:
Protect the Ball and Don’t Give Roethlisberger a Short Field: The Patriots turned the ball over three times last week. A repeat of that type of week would spell disaster for the Patriots, as they wouldn’t survive that.
They especially need to be aware of ball security on special teams where every week it seems there is a big return or turnover. I’m sure that point was hammered home by Bill Belichick this week. While there isn’t much that can be done about tipped passes, wrapping up the ball and locking it away is paramount this week.
On the flip side, generating a turnover or two would go a long way in winning the game as well. They’ve been very good down the stretch at generating turnovers. No better time than Sunday to get a couple more.
Win the Red Zone Battles: Pittsburgh’s defense was excellent in the red zone this season ranking 4th in the NFL. Their offense, however, was another story. Like their passing game, their red-zone offensive production was vastly different between at home and on the road. At home, they tooled along at 72.4 percent second best in the league. On the road, the Steelers were scoring on just 37 percent of red-zone scoring opportunities which was third worst in the league.
The Patriots were the 8th best RZ scoring offense in the league and the top one left of the four playoff teams. They were also the 8th ranked RZ defense in the league. It is imperative for the Patriots to score when they get the chances and stop the Steelers in the RZ where they’ve struggled. Last week they scored zero TDs in KC but won because their defense was easily winning the day over the Chiefs offense.
Stay Balanced on Offense and Use the RBs in the Passing Game: The backs will be key for the Patriots offense this week. Dion Lewis and James White will have to be productive in the running and passing games and in White’s to-do list, be solid in pass protection to keep Brady upright.
Look for Brady and McDaniels to get those players in space where they can take advantage of their individual matchups and keep the linebackers reacting to them rather than allowing them to dictate.
Brady has traditionally played well against the Steelers defense, which has changed little from the Dick LeBeau days. Home field advantage is a real thing, despite BB’s objections. Just look at the Steelers offensive numbers on the road.
This one will go down to the wire between the two best teams in the AFC but the Patriots get the one key stop to get them on their way to Houston. Patriots 31-24
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A former US Army Special Forces NCO and Officer, Steve has been following the Patriots since their days at Fenway Park. Steve has worked in the film industry and wrote as an Military Editor at SpecialOperations.com, 1945.com as a reporter for the Millbury Daily Voice, Millbury-Sutton Chronicle, and the Grafton News. He's also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)
