Patriots – Steelers AFC Championship Key Matchups
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Steelers RBs vs NE Front Seven – Razor’s Edge Pittsburgh
The Pittsburgh running game has arguably the best back in the business with LeVeon Bell who rushed for the 5th most yards in the league despite playing in just 12 games this season. Bell rushed for 167 yards against Miami in the Wildcard Round and followed that up with 170 against the Chiefs. Bell’s patience is his best attribute, at times stopping and waiting for a slight crack to burst thru.
The Patriots were excellent against the run in 2016 allowing just 88.6 yards per game, third-best in the league. Interior lineman Alan Branch, Malcom Brown and Vincent Valentine have been outstanding at slowing the run at the point of attack and allowing the linebackers, Dont’a Hightower and Elandon Roberts to clean up. The Patriots defense has been a sure tackling team and that helps in limiting yards after contact.
The Steelers offensive line is very good upfront. This will be a great matchup of strength in the trenches. The Patriots did a good job of limiting Bell in the running game in Pittsburgh, he ran for 81 on 20 carries. Patience and discipline are the keys for both sides here. The Patriots have to keep gap control or Bell will exploit the tiniest crack for big yardage.
Steelers WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor’s Edge New England
The Steelers will have Roethlisberger for this one and he has a plethora of weapons to throw to. First among them is Antonio Brown, again, arguably the best wide receiver in the business. Brown can break open a game by going deep or taking a short pass and getting yards after the catch.
Pittsburgh also has 2nd year WR Eli Rogers, Darrius Heyward-Bey, TE Jessie James and the ever-dangerous Bell out of the backfield. When the passing offense is clicking, they’re very difficult to stop.
The Patriots secondary finished the season 12th against the pass and was particularly adept at forcing turnovers down the stretch. They’ve forced 17 in their final six games and the pass rush has become more effective as they’re mixing things up as to where the pass rush is coming from.
Look for the Patriots to double Brown up and force Roethlisberger to beat them with Rogers. James may be the “X-Factor” here in this game. With the focus on Bell and Brown, Roethlisberger may go to his big TE more in this one much like we saw Heath Miller in years past during big games.
The Patriots get the slightest edge here because Pittsburgh’s passing offense hasn’t been the same on the road as it has at home. A quick check of Roethlisberger’s numbers shows he completed 160 of 226 passes (70.8%) for 1915 yards (8.5 yards per attempt), with 20 TDs and just 5 INTs for a passer rating of 116.7 at home.
But on the road, his numbers are 168 of 283 (59.4%) 1904 yards, (6.7 yards per attempt) with 9 TDs and 8 INTs for a passer rating of 78.4. The home field advantage, despite Bill Belichick’s comments early this week, may make a big difference here.
Special Teams- Razor’s Edge New England
The Patriots get the slight edge here Stephen Gostkowski shook off his early season struggles and was solid down the stretch. Punter Ryan Allen has been quite effective at pinning opponents inside the 20-yard line. Chris Boswell has been very solid for the Steelers and was outstanding for them last week, nailing six field goals in the win over the Chiefs. Jordan Berry has been solid for the Steelers. But despite the outstanding job at limiting the Chiefs Tyreek Hill last week, Pittsburgh’s coverage units have not been great. The Patriots got a 98-yard kickoff return for a TD from Dion Lewis last week. He also fumbled and no one has fumbled more in the return game than NE … Stay tuned for some fireworks either way.
Next up, who wins and why…
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