Earlier this week the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released their ‘look ahead’ betting lines for NFL Week 11. These early odds are published in advance of the prior week’s games being played. These early lines give some clairvoyant risk takers an opportunity to roll the dice on games that will not take place for another week and a half. There are times when public reaction to the most recent game clouds reality, and for a moment one can exploit the odds on an overrated or underrated team – or be done in by an unforeseen injury.
There are only two home teams in Week 11 that are not favored. Not surprisingly these are the two worst teams in the NFL this season, San Francisco and Cleveland. The Forty Niners have the misfortune of being on New England’s schedule next week. The Patriot 2016 Vindication for Defamegate Tour travels to the City by the Bay Santa Clara for a late afternoon game (4:25 pm ET) at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday November 20.
Normally the Patriots playing in the late time slot is good news for out of town fans who don’t always get to watch the Pats on a local channel on a weekly basis. When the NFL announced their 2016 schedule last spring the Eagles-Seahawks game was cross-flexed from FOX to CBS, to'”bring a potentially under-distributed games to wider audiences”. With that thought in mind – and the disparity in quality of play between the Pats and Niners – this looms as a rather noncompetitive game. I would think that the Philly-Seattle game will be broadcast to most of the nation, while the NE-SF game will likely air only in northern California and New England.
The Week 11 lineup kicks off with – for a welcome change – a decent matchup on Thursday night. New Orleans will be at Carolina in a battle of NFC South rivals. Heading into this weekend’s games the Saints have won four of their last five, while the Panthers have won both of their games since a week seven bye. Rather than being relegated to the NFL Network, this contest will be televised on NBC.
What appears to be the best game of the week will also be broadcast by NBC, with Green Bay at Washington on Sunday night. Here is a look at the full Week 11 schedule with early look ahead lines. The Falcons, Broncos, Jets and Chargers will all be off with a bye.
NFL Week 11 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines
4-4 New Orleans Saints at 3-5 Carolina Panthers (-5)
Thursday November 17 at 8:25 pm ET on NBC
4-5 Tennessee Titans at 4-5 Indianapolis Colts (-4)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars at 5-4 Detroit Lions (-6)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
3-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs (-8½)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX
2-6 Chicago Bears at 5-3 New York Giants (-5½)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX
3-4-1 Arizona Cardinals at 5-3 Minnesota Vikings (-1)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX
4-5 Buffalo Bills at 3-4-1 Cincinnati Bengals (-4½)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX
4-4 Baltimore Ravens at 7-1 Dallas Cowboys (-6)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
4-4 Pittsburgh Steelers (-8½) at 0-9 Cleveland Browns
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
4-4 Miami Dolphins at 3-5 Los Angeles Rams (-1½)
Sunday November 20 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX
7-1 New England Patriots (-14½) at 1-7 San Francisco 49ers
Sunday November 20 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS
4-4 Philadelphia Eagles at 5-2-1 Seattle Seahawks (-5½)
Sunday November 20 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS
4-4 Green Bay Packers at 4-3-1 Washington Redskins (-1½)
Sunday November 20 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC
5-3 Houston Texans ‘at’ 7-2 Oakland Raiders (-3), in Mexico City
Monday November 21 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN
Back to Week 10, the Thursday night game is not particularly appealing. The Browns have yet to win a game and only one of Baltimore’s four victories was against a club with a winning record. The Ravens may be in for a letdown after defeating arch rival Pittsburgh last week. Cleveland does not have the talent level to compete with better teams, as evidenced by their blowout losses to Philadelphia, Washington, New England, Cincinnati and Dallas. However, the Browns have been very competitive with average teams. Cleveland took Miami to overtime and lost by only five in their first meeting with Baltimore, by two at Tennessee and by three versus the Jets.
Vegas has been losing money on the betting public simply taking the Patriots and Cowboys, and wagering against the Browns and Niners this season. The professional handicappers arbitrarily set a higher line than the expected result when the odds were at 10 and 10½ earlier this week, daring the public to take Ravens minus that many points. The smart players took the Browns and eventually the line adjusted downward due to all the money on that side. By Thursday night the line was all the way down to 7½, which is where it reasonably should be for these two teams.
I placed a small wager (one unit) on Cleveland when the line was 10½ because that line was just too much to pass up – even though I cringed at the the thought of backing a team that has been this bad. I do believe Baltimore will be a bit flat between the short week and last week’s game, which should result in a low scoring game.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Browns 16
Browns +7½ . . . . under 44½ (one unit) . . . . Baltimore -350
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