Patriots at Broncos – stats, odds and prediction

John Morgan

8 years ago at 6:00 pm ET

Follow @AllThingsPats

Posted Under: Patriots Stat Breakdowns

The 10-0 New England Patriots are on the road this week to face the 8-2 Denver Broncos in a battle between the longtime original AFL rivals on Sunday night. A victory by the Patriots virtually assures New England of a first round bye, whereas a win by Denver closes the lead in the AFC to just one game over the Bengals and Broncos, with Denver holding the tiebreaker over the Pats.

When: Sunday, November 29 at 8:30 pm ET

Where: Sports Authority Field, Denver CO

Television: NBC; announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth

Weather: Forecast is for cloudy skies and temperature of about 26°; 70% chance of snow, about one inch expected; light winds of about 5 mph.

Odds: The Patriots opened as 5½ point favorites a week ago Thursday, prior to last week’s games. With the news that WR Danny Amendola would join Julian Edelman on the sideline with an injury, the line quickly dropped down to three points and eventually settled at 2½ points in most venues on Sunday. Likewise the point total dropped five points from 47½ to 42½, with a few venues at 42. Typical money lines have the Patriots -135 and the Broncos +115.

Head-to-Head Series Record: Denver is one of a handful of franchises to own a winning record against the Patriots: the Broncos are 25-20 in the regular season and 3-1 in the playoffs versus the Pats. The Patriots have won five of the last six meetings going back to 2011, and New England trounced Denver in the last matchup, 43-21 last November.

Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game (or per play), rather than aggregate totals. Per-game and per-play stats are used rather than gross totals because that makes the rankings more meaningful, considering some NFL teams have played a different number of games, and because they provide a better context in regards to what to expect in any given game. Numbers in green indicate a top-ten ranking.

New England Patriots Offense versus Denver Broncos Defense

Scoring: Patriots 32.3 (2nd); Broncos 18.3 (2nd)

Yardage: Patriots 412 (3rd); Broncos 284 (1st)

First Downs: Patriots 24.2 (1st); Broncos 18.5 (6th)

Yards per Play: Patriots 6.2 (3rd); Broncos 4.4 (1st)

Yards per Drive: Patriots 39.2 (2nd); Broncos 26.8 (3rd)

Points per Drive: Patriots 3.14 (1st); Broncos 1.42 (2nd)

Drive Success Rate: Patriots .782 (1st); Broncos .647 (4th)

Points per Play: Patriots .484 (2nd); Broncos .285 (3rd)

Touchdowns: Patriots 3.6 (2nd); Broncos 1.9 (3rd)

Red Zone Touchdowns: Patriots 2.9 (1st); Broncos 1.3 (7th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Patriots 64.4% (6th); Broncos 48.2% (6th)

Plays per Game: Patriots 66.7 (8th); Broncos 64.3 (16th)

Third Down Conversions: Patriots 6.0 (5th); Broncos 4.7 (11th)

Third Down Percentage: Patriots 46.5% (2nd); Broncos 34.8% (7th)

Punts per Score: Patriots 0.6 (1st); Broncos 1.4 (10th)

Rushing Yards: Patriots 92.0 (28th); Broncos 93.7 (8th)

Yards per Rush: Patriots 3.90 (23rd); Broncos 3.51 (2nd)

Passing Yards: Patriots 320 (1st); Broncos 191 (1st)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 8.1 (4th); Broncos 6.2 (2nd)

Completion Percentage: Patriots 66.3% (7th); Broncos 60.8% (9th)

Passer Rating: Patriots 107.4 (2nd); Broncos 74.2 (2nd)

TD Passes/Picks: Patriots +21 (1st), 25/4; Broncos +2 (2nd), 8/10

Complete Passes: Patriots 27.1 (3rd); Broncos 20.8 (8th)

Incomplete Passes: Patriots 13.8 (21st); Broncos 13.4 (15th)

Quarterback Sacks: Patriots 2.2 (15th); Broncos 3.4 (1st)

Sack Yardage Lost: Patriots 11.6 (11th); Broncos 21.3 (2nd)

Denver Broncos Offense versus New England Patriots Defense

Scoring: Broncos 22.2 (18th); Patriots 18.2 (1st)

Yardage: Broncos 337 (24th); Patriots 341 (14th)

First Downs: Broncos 18.9 (28th); Patriots 19.9 (15th)

Yards per Play: Broncos 5.3 (23rd); Patriots 5.2 (9th)

Yards per Drive: Broncos 29.4 (23rd); Patriots 30.4 (10th)

Points per Drive: Broncos 1.64 (26th); Patriots 1.60 (5th)

Drive Success Rate: Broncos .659 (29th); Patriots .684 (12th)

Points per Play: Broncos .349 (17th); Patriots .279 (1st)

Touchdowns: Broncos 2.3 (22nd); Patriots 2.0 (5th)

Red Zone Touchdowns: Broncos 1.2 (26th); Patriots 1.4 (8th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Broncos 44.4% (25th); Patriots 51.9% (13th)

Plays per Game: Broncos 63.7 (20th); Patriots 65.3 (20th)

Third Down Conversions: Broncos 4.7 (23rd); Patriots 5.5 (18th)

Third Down Percentage: Broncos 34.1% (28th); Patriots 39.6% (19th)

Punts per Score: Broncos 1.3 (21st); Patriots 1.4 (6th)

Rushing Yards: Broncos 94.4 (27th); Patriots 88.8 (3rd)

Yards per Rush: Broncos 3.92 (19th); Patriots 3.89 (12th)

Passing Yards: Broncos 243 (17th); Patriots 253 (21st)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Broncos 6.9 (22nd); Patriots 7.0 (11th)

Completion Percentage: Broncos 60.9% (23rd); Patriots 60.6% (8th)

Passer Rating: Broncos 72.2 (32nd); Patriots 83.9 (9th)

TD Passes/Picks: Broncos -6 (32nd), 12/18; Patriots -5 (8th), 14/9

Complete Passes: Broncos 22.7 (15th); Patriots 23.8 (24th)

Incomplete Passes: Broncos 14.6 (26th); Patriots 15.5 (4th)

Quarterback Sacks: Broncos 2.3 (17th); Patriots 3.2 (2nd)

Sack Yardage Lost: Broncos 14.6 (15th); Patriots 21.5 (1st)

Turnovers

Patriot Giveaways: 0.8 (2nd);  Bronco Takeaways: 1.9 (5th)

Bronco Giveaways: 1.9 (25th); Patriot Takeaways: 1.4 (17th)

Penalties

Penalties: Patriots 6.9 (15th); Broncos 7.9 (25th)

Penalty Yards: Patriots 65.4 (23rd); Broncos 77.0 (30th)

Opponent Penalties: Patriots 7.5 (9th); Broncos 5.9 (30th)

Opponent Penalty Yards: Patriots 67.3 (10th); Broncos 43.1 (30th)

Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings

Team Efficiency: Weighted DVOA: Patriots 32.0% (1st); Broncos 12.3% (8th)

Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA: Patriots 20.8% (2nd); Broncos -16.0% (30th)

Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA: Patriots -4.3% (10th); Broncos -24.2% (1st)

Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 8.7% (1st); Broncos 4.4% (6th)

Prediction: Patriots 20, Broncos 19

Despite all the injuries and where the game is being played, I’ll still go with Bill Belichick over Gary Kubiak.