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I think you sort of have to just do the math. First, you have to take into account the possibility of failing on one-point kick after touchdown. I think those are made about .965 of the time. Then you have to take into account your chances of winning in overtime. I don't know what Shanahan thought those chances were. Let's say he thought it was 50/50. That means if you decide to kick there, your chances of winning are about 48.25 percent.
If you think you have a play that has a better than 48.25 percent chance of success on the two point conversion, it seems like the right call to me. If I remember correctly, Denver also had at least one time out left. So, you have to also add in the possibility of recovering an onside kick and getting a field goal. Admittedly, that's a low probability, but they still would have that option and it's worth something if they fail to convert, and it's part of the math (there is a corresponding possibility that you have to take into account on the other side, if you go for one point and miss, you can still onside kick, but this is a much smaller number).
Now, if an honest assessment would have said the chances of converting the two-point conversion was closer to 40 percent, and if Shanahan did it anyway because of his "gut," I have no use for a coach like that. No thanks -- the fact that it worked out notwithstanding.
When I heard Shanahan did that on his gut (or as he alternatively stated the defense could not get a stop and he did not want to risk the game outcome on the coin toss), I immediately flashed back to two or three years ago when he repeatedly onside kicked because his defense could not come close to stopping the Colts. Sad.
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