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jmt57

Moderator
Staff member
Week 10 TV Maps are up.

Big shout out to Pats fan JP Kirby at 506 Sports for putting these together for us.

Don't shoot the messenger, but it is another Dan Fouts week for us.
(Ducks for cover in order to avoid lethal projectiles.)

Thursday night and late game Sunday matchups look interesting.

NATIONAL BROADCASTS
  • Thursday Night: Carolina @ Pittsburgh (Fox/NFLN)
  • Sunday Night: Dallas @ Philadelphia (NBC)
  • Monday Night: NY Giants @ San Francisco (espn)

CBS Early Game

Red: New England @ Tennessee; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts
Blue: Arizona @ Kansas City; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, Bruce Arians
Green: Buffalo @ NY Jets; Andrew Catalon, James Lofton
Yellow: Jacksonville @ Indianapolis; Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta
Gray: NO GAME due to local home game on Fox

CBS Late Game

Red: Seattle @ LA Rams; Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Blue: Miami @ Green Bay; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon
Gray: NO GAME due to local home game on Fox

Fox Single Game

Early:
Red: New Orleans @ Cincinnati; Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis
Green: Washington @ Tampa Bay; Thom Brennaman, Chris Spielman
Yellow: Detroit @ Chicago; Chris Myers, Daryl Johnston
Orange: Atlanta @ Cleveland; Kenny Albert, Ronde Barber
Late:
Blue: LA Chargers @ Oakland; Dick Stockton, Mark Schlereth



Odds as of late Wednesday afternoon (give or take a half point or so depending on venue):
6-2 Panthers at 5-2-1 Steelers (-4), 51½
2-7 Bills at 3-6 Jets (-7), 36½
4-4 Falcons (-4) at 2-6-1 Browns, 50½
7-1 Saints (-5½) at 5-3 Bengals, 54
5-3 Redskins at 3-5 Buccaneers (-3), 51½
7-2 Patriots (-6½) at 4-4 Titans, 46½
5-4 Dolphins at 3-4-1 Packers (-9½), 47½
3-5 Jaguars at 3-5 Colts (-3), 47
3-5 Lions at 5-3 Bears (-6½), 45
2-6 Cardinals at 8-1 Chiefs (-16½), 49½
6-2 Chargers (-10) at 1-7 Raiders, 50
4-4 Seahawks at 8-1 Rams (-10), 50½
3-5 Cowboys at 4-4 Eagles (-7), 43
1-7 Giants at 2-7 Niners (-3), 44
 

Pat the Pats Fan

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Sheesh, I think this is the 8th week the pats have been on air in my area.....that’s equal to all of last year. I hope I am able to see some games in December...but we are playing the bills, fish and jest, so chances are slim there.
 

jmt57

Moderator
Staff member
Of all the stats available, other than scoring margin (total points scored minus total points allowed) I had always considered turnover margin to have the best correlation to wins and losses.

Appears that we have an outlier at the top this season. So far this season the correlation is not as strong as I had anticipated it to be.

+11 -- 2-6-1 -- Browns
+10 -- 5-3 -- Bears
+9 -- 4-4 -- Seahawks
+7 -- 5-3 -- Redskins
+7 -- 8-1 -- Rams

+6 -- 6-2 -- Chargers
+6 -- 6-2 -- Panthers
+5 -- 8-1 -- Chiefs
+5 -- 5-4 -- Dolphins

+4 -- 7-2 -- Patriots
+4 -- 6-3 -- Texans
+4 -- 5-3 -- Bengals
+3 -- 4-4 -- Falcons
+3 -- 3-5 -- Colts

+1 -- 3-5-1 -- Vikings
+0 -- 7-1 -- Saints
+0 -- 3-6 -- Broncos
-1 -- 6-2-1 -- Steelers
-1 -- 4-4 -- Titans
-1 -- 3-4-1 -- Packers

-2 -- 3-5 -- Cowboys
-3 -- 3-5 -- Lions
-4 -- 4-5 -- Ravens
-4 -- 1-7 -- Giants

-5 -- 4-4 -- Eagles
-5 -- 3-6 -- Jets
-5 -- 2-6 -- Cardinals
-6 -- 1-7 -- Raiders

-9 -- 2-7 -- Bills
-11 -- 3-5 -- Jaguars
-13 -- 2-7 -- Niners
-15 -- 3-5 -- Buccaneers


The correlation appears to be more pronounced at the bottom than at the top. Bad teams are apparently unable to overcome turnovers, while better teams find a way to do so.

Chicago is a bit of an oddity; the Bears do not have a single game this year with a negative turnover margin, yet they are only 5-3. It looks as though their offense is so mediocre that their defense has to carry the team to victory, in large part via turnovers. In games the Bears have a turnover margin of plus-2 or greater they are 3-0, which is not a surprise. However, in games where they have a turnover margin of plus-1 they are 0-2 (and 2-1 in even turnover margin games).

Then there is a team like the Saints that doesn't turn the ball over often (8 giveaways, 6th best). That is part of why their offense does not have to rely on defensive takeaways (8 takeaways, 8th worst).

Some of the randomness can also be explained by the effect a single game can have. In week one Pittsburgh turned the ball over six times to Cleveland; the Browns had a net +5 and the Steelers a net -5 in that overtime tie.
 

Palm Beach Pats Fan

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Sheesh, I think this is the 8th week the pats have been on air in my area.....that’s equal to all of last year. I hope I am able to see some games in December...but we are playing the bills, fish and jest, so chances are slim there.
I think I will go 13-for-16 for the year, here in the Miami market. 10-for-10 so far. Amazing... The two Jets games and the remaining Bills game are all at the same time on the same network as the Dolphins so it will be a stream for them.
 

maineman209

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Odds as of late Wednesday afternoon (give or take a half point or so depending on venue):
6-2 Panthers at 5-2-1 Steelers (-4), 51½
2-7 Bills at 3-6 Jets (-7), 36½
4-4 Falcons (-4) at 2-6-1 Browns, 50½
7-1 Saints (-5½) at 5-3 Bengals, 54
5-3 Redskins at 3-5 Buccaneers (-3), 51½
7-2 Patriots (-6½) at 4-4 Titans, 46½
5-4 Dolphins at 3-4-1 Packers (-9½), 47½
3-5 Jaguars at 3-5 Colts (-3), 47
3-5 Lions at 5-3 Bears (-6½), 45
2-6 Cardinals at 8-1 Chiefs (-16½), 49½
6-2 Chargers (-10) at 1-7 Raiders, 50
4-4 Seahawks at 8-1 Rams (-10), 50½
3-5 Cowboys at 4-4 Eagles (-7), 43
1-7 Giants at 2-7 Niners (-3), 44

Steelers (-4) and the over/under (52.5) were off by a smidge.
 

jboston19

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
Oh, thank God. I get yo watch the Patriots here in Texas today! It was close, too! Galveston where I live gets it but Beaumont, where I am today, is right on the edge of coverage for it. Sweet!
 

Joey007

Pro Bowl Player
Damn I don’t get this one.

At least it looks like I might actually get Pats Jets after the bye.
 

jmt57

Moderator
Staff member
I think I will go 13-for-16 for the year, here in the Miami market. 10-for-10 so far. Amazing... The two Jets games and the remaining Bills game are all at the same time on the same network as the Dolphins so it will be a stream for them.
I have had some good years in the past here in Tampa territory (Clearwater FL), but that has not been the case this season. Once again this week I get screwed by the Bucs.

Week 1: TB at Saints early, Fox single game; CBS goes w/late game over Pats-Houston early, which is being broadcast throughout most of the rest of the eastern US.
Week 2: Pats-Jax was on tv here as well as most of the US. Didn't matter because (a) I was watching the game in Boston at the Cask'n Flagon after the Sox game finished, and (b) the game sucked.
Week 3: Pats-Detroit on SNF. Everybody got to see it, including me. Another game I wish I had not been able to view.
Week 4: Miami at Pats. Far too often a Pats game (or another good game) gets knocked out because the local CBS station here will broadcast a Dolphins game. In the past I have written to them and pointed out that this area has very few Miami fans; you see far more Pats, Steelers, Giants, Eagles, etc bumper stickers, shirt, etc. They agree, put the best game on for a few weeks, and eventually go back to jamming Dolphin games down our throats. In this case it worked out for me though. First win I got to see that was not in a bar or stream.
Week 5: Thursday night game vs Colts. Beating Indy never gets old.
Week 6: Chiefs at Pats, Sunday Night Football. A happy but groggy Monday morning work day for me.
Week 7: The TV map was a sea of red (Pats at Bears) with the exception of a couple of cities that were blacked out. One of them was where I live, where we instead were treated to the Browns at the Bucs in that time slot.
Week 8: Another national game (Pats at Bills on MNF), another groggy Monday morning.
Week 9: At this point my game-day routine is to rush home from work, take a nap, and get up 15 minutes before kickoff. SNF, Packers at Patriots.
Week 10: Once again Tampa is a gray blacked out area with no early game thanks to the Bucs playing at home at the same time on Fox. Not sure if I will stay home and follow a Reddit link or hit a sports bar.

Scorecard thus far:
(5) Night games, available to all.
(3) Blackouts, no Pats.
(2) Day games with Pats on local tv.

Looking ahead:
Week 12: Pats at Jets early on CBS will be blacked out because SF at TB on Fox at same time.
Week 13: Minn at NE will be broadcast in the late time slot by Fox (who has the doubleheader); it will be available in all markets except Oakland and Nashville.
Week 14: NE at Miami on CBS. Another blackout for me since TB is playing at home at the same time.
Week 15: Pats at Pittsburgh. Only game in late time slot for CBS. Available everywhere except SF and Seattle.
Week 16: Buff at NE early on CBS. Won't be shown here because our CBS station will either air the 'local' Miami (4 hours away) vs Jax (5 hours away) game, or the best available game (Houston at Philly).
Week 17: Jets at Pats. Another blackout, TB at home at the same time.

Final 2018 Scorecard: 9-7
(5) National Night Games
(6) Blackouts due to Bucs playing at home at same time.
(2) Early day games with Pats on my local tv.
(2) Late time slot, semi-national games, on local tv.
(1) Game with no Pats, early time slot, another game broadcast.
 

FortressX

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
Fox must be torqued off CBS gets Seahawks/Rams while they get the Raiders..
 

sb1

Pro Bowl Player
Well- looks like still a 2 game lead in the AFC East after tonight even with the blowout loss. I’m ok with that.
 

Joker

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
My pick of the week tonight...Philly...after that debacle today in Tenn I'm looking forward to a Big D meltdown....Jerruh fires the OC after the game.
 

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