Six months after SB win, what little thing sticks in your memory?

[Kontradiction]

I think so, given the caliber of opponent, yes. Here are, IMO, the candidates for best defensive performance in a Super Bowl:

SB 3 - Jets 16, Colts 7
SB 18 - Raiders 38, Redskins 9
SB 20 - Bears 46, Patriots 10
SB 35 - Ravens 34, Giants 7
SB 42 - Giants 17, Patriots 14
SB 48 - Seahawks 43, Broncos 8
SB 53 - Patriots 13, Rams 3

Ok so let's break those down.

SB 3: Colts had the #2 scoring, #4 yardage offense in the NFL that year. They averaged 28.7 points a game, so the Jets held them to 21.7 fewer points than average. They allowed 324 total yards to Baltimore that day.

SB 18: Redskins had the #1 scoring, #3 yardage offense in the NFL that year. They averaged 33.8 points a game, so the Raiders held them to 24.8 fewer points than average. They allowed just 283 total yards to Washington that day. But the Raiders blew them out, so it made defense easier as the game went on.

SB 20: Pats had the #10 scoring, #9 yardage offense in the NFL that year. They averaged 25.8 points a game, so the Bears held them to 15.8 fewer points than average. They allowed just 123 total yards to NE in that game, but just as was the case with SB 18, the Bears were up by so much that it made NE one-dimensional, and a bad one at that.

SB 35: Giants had the #15 scoring, #13 yardage offense in the NFL that year. They averaged 20.5 points a game, so the Ravens held them to 13.5 fewer points than average. They allowed just 152 total yards to NY in that game, but see the previous two situations, as the lopsided score made playing defense easier. Also, the Giants' offense was the definition of mediocre that year.

SB 42: Pats had the #1 scoring, #1 yardage offense in the NFL that year. They averaged 36.8 points a game, so the Giants held them to 22.8 fewer points than average. They allowed just 274 total yards to NE in that game. Great performance against maybe the greatest offense the NFL has ever seen. -sigh-

SB 48: Broncos had the #1 scoring, #1 yardage offense in the NFL that year. They averaged 37.9 points a game, so the Seahawks held them to 29.9 fewer points than average. They allowed just 306 total yards to Den in that game. Great performance against an all-time great offense, but the lopsided score made it far easier to play the suddenly one-dimensional Broncos' offense.

SB 53: Rams had the #2 scoring, #2 yardage offense in the NFL that year. They averaged 32.9 points a game, so the Patriots held them to 29.9 fewer points than average. They allowed just 260 total yards to LA in that game. Great performance against one of the great offenses in history, AND the score was so tight all game long that there was absolutely no room for error.


So in SB 53, the Patriots tied the SB 48 Seahawks for the record of holding their opponents to more points under their average than any other team in SB history. Moreover, they held the Rams to fewer total yards than Seattle did Denver. AND the game was much tighter, meaning the defense had no margin for error all game long until the last drive of the game.

So yes, at WORST, it's on the short short list of best defensive performances in SB history, but a strong case can be made that it was numero uno, all things considered.

I’d say it’s a top two effort in the last 19 years. Maybe even #1 overall. However, you’re forgetting that a lot of those other games got out of hand BECAUSE of outstanding defense. I can’t put it above the 2000 Ravens. That team had absolutely no offense whatsoever and yet that game got out of hand because they had picked off the Giants 4 times before the 4th quarter.

Edit: While we on that note, look at the Giants’ drives in that game. That’s defensive domination...

Super Bowl XXXV - Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants - January 28th, 2001 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[ivanvamp]

I’d say it’s a top two effort in the last 19 years. Maybe even #1 overall. However, you’re forgetting that a lot of those other games got out of hand BECAUSE of outstanding defense. I can’t put it above the 2000 Ravens. That team had absolutely no offense whatsoever and yet that game got out of hand because they had picked off the Giants 4 times before the 4th quarter.

Edit: While we on that note, look at the Giants’ drives in that game. That’s defensive domination...

Super Bowl XXXV - Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants - January 28th, 2001 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

No doubt that was dominant. And of course that Ravens defense was better than last year's Patriots defense over the course of the year, no question.

But the Giants' offense that year was bad. This past year's Rams' offense was one of the top 15 offenses in NFL history.

45 of the Rams' 260 yards came in that last garbage time drive, meaning that when the game was in doubt, the Patriots only allowed 3 points and 205 yards to a team that had averaged 33 points and 421 yards per game.

But to be fair, the Ravens' D that day didn't actually allow any points. The Giants' only points came on a kickoff return. So maybe that's #1. Either way, the Pats' D this past SB is on the very very short list of all-time great SB performances.

I'm ok with that.

 

[Doctor DDS]

"We're still here" is what I will remember. Team had a very uneven season and at times looked completely out of sorts. The final play against the Dolphins was an uncharacteristic lapse in both coaching and execution. And it happened in the same game where a mental lapse hurt them right before halftime. Losing Gordon and with a banged up Gronk there were a lot of questions about their ability to score in a big spot. But once again the Pats pulled it all together and refused to quit. May not be the most talented team but they are almost always the most relentless. Their refusal to die despite all of the adversity stamps the 2018 addition to me.

(plus watching the 4th quarter of the Chiefs game over and over)

 

[luuked]

It can change on a single play because that’s the sport. That doesn’t negate the fact that momentum doesn’t exist. It does. That you’re saying otherwise has me asking myself whether or not you’ve ever actually played anything competitively.

Here’s another quote on momentum within a game, this time coming from the GOAT QB of all time...

Brady 10/26: "We've got a lot of momentum"

You now have direct quotes from the mouths of both the GOAT HC and the GOAT QB in the history of American football on momentum.

You can quote whoever or whatever you want. As long as it is not some kind of somewhat recent and representative scientific text with a clear statistical analysis I could not care less. Whatever BB, Brady or anyone else without some kind of scientific degree has to say about it is anecdotal at best and highly subjective.

Being GOATs in the sports of football doesn't mean they are experts when it comes to scientific aspects of it. One can throw a ball very well the other is among other things a great manager, strategist and talent evaluator. Neither is even remotely close to be a scientific expert.

Hell one of them is selling anti-concussion water and "far infrared" recovery sleepwear.

Sure it did. You hoped they’d win the coin toss because they couldn’t be stopped on offense late in the game once they started attacking the boundary. They had built momentum and had it going into the OT period.

No it didn't. They tired the Falcons out, got lucky with a coin flip and then kept pounding a defence who had nothing left. They didn't win because of momentum or some other voodoo but because they found their mismatches, were in superior physical shape and got statistically speaking unbelievably lucky to win essentially every single 50/50 situation and have the ball bounce their way.

It was not meant to be, it was not done through willpower or anything else. It was random luck that Hightower didn't arrive even 100 milliseconds later turning a fumble into an incompletion. It was random luck that Coleman got injured on exactly that play before and Freeman ended up screwing up that protection. It was random luck that the ball bounced into Alan Branch's arms and not the other way around where an Atlanta lineman was waiting for it.

The same can be said about at least another 5-6 situations in that game.

But in the end it is not your fault that your human brain is wired that way. We are seeing patterns even when there are none because that's what our mind is good at.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

I love his dad;

but I hate Wade Phillips.

 

[Kontradiction]

You can quote whoever or whatever you want. As long as it is not some kind of somewhat recent and representative scientific text with a clear statistical analysis I could not care less. Whatever BB, Brady or anyone else without some kind of scientific degree has to say about it is anecdotal at best and highly subjective.

Being GOATs in the sports of football doesn't mean they are experts when it comes to scientific aspects of it. One can throw a ball very well the other is among other things a great manager, strategist and talent evaluator. Neither is even remotely close to be a scientific expert.

Hell one of them is selling anti-concussion water and "far infrared" recovery sleepwear.



No it didn't. They tired the Falcons out, got lucky with a coin flip and then kept pounding a defence who had nothing left. They didn't win because of momentum or some other voodoo but because they found their mismatches, were in superior physical shape and got statistically speaking unbelievably lucky to win essentially every single 50/50 situation and have the ball bounce their way.

It was not meant to be, it was not done through willpower or anything else. It was random luck that Hightower didn't arrive even 100 milliseconds later turning a fumble into an incompletion. It was random luck that Coleman got injured on exactly that play before and Freeman ended up screwing up that protection. It was random luck that the ball bounced into Alan Branch's arms and not the other way around where an Atlanta lineman was waiting for it.

The same can be said about at least another 5-6 situations in that game.

But in the end it is not your fault that your human brain is wired that way. We are seeing patterns even when there are none because that's what our mind is good at.

LOL... what? You’re not familiar with the concepts of self-efficacy in leadership and managerial studies? There’s very clear, very real data on the positive effects of self-efficacy, which studies on momentum in sports is based on, and it’s positive effect on employee output. But if you want qualitative studies and evidence, we can go that route, too...

The Reality of Momentum in Sports

Lee Crust and Mark Nesti have recommended that researchers look at psychological momentum more from the qualitative side. Maybe there are more subjective measures of athlete or team confidence that contribute to success that don't show up in individual stats or account for teams wins and losses. As Jeff Greenwaldput it in his article, Riding the Wave of Momentum, "The reason momentum is so powerful is because of the heightened sense of confidence it gives us -- the most important aspect of peak performance. There is a term in sport psychology known as self-efficacy, which is simply a player's belief in his/her ability to perform a specific task or shot. Typically, a player’s success depends on this efficacy. During a momentum shift, self-efficacy is very high and players have immediate proof their ability matches the challenge. As stated earlier, they then experience subsequent increases in energy and motivation, and gain a feeling of control. In addition, during a positive momentum shift, a player’s self-image also changes. He/she feels invincible and this takes the "performer self" to a higher level."

Finally, at the end of the chain, if momentum makes it that far, there should be an immediate outcome change. When the pressure of a precipitating event occurs against a team, the players may begin to get out of their normal, confident flow and start to overanalyze their own performance and skills. We saw this in Dr. Sian Beilock's research in our article, Putt With Your Brain - Part 2. As an athlete's skills improve they don't need to consciously focus on them during a game. But pressure brought on by a negative event can take them out of this "automatic" mode as they start to focus on their mechanics to fix or reverse the problem. As Patrick Cohn, a sport psychologist, pointed out in a recent USA Today article on momentum, "You stop playing the game you played to be in that position. And the moment you switch to trying not to screw up, you go from a very offensive mind-set to a very defensive mind-set. If you're focusing too much on the outcome, it's difficult to play freely. And now they're worried more about the consequences and what's going to happen than what they need to do right now."

What Sports Tells Us About the Psychology of Momentum | AllPsych Blog

Researchers looking at how psychological momentum affects athletes’ performance have found that momentum matters, and that negative momentum matters more than positive momentum. That is, the negative effects of having momentum against you outweigh the positive effects of having momentum on your side.

The effects of momentum show up in several ways:

• A 2010 study of table tennis players found that anxiety levels went down linearly when score gaps increased (indicating positive momentum) but went up much faster when score gaps decreased (indicating negative momentum).
• A 2014 study of rowers found that overall effort exerted decreased more during times of negative momentum than it increased during times of positive momentum. Interpersonal coordination also got worse under negative momentum.

Specifically, the study looked at athletes’ performance over the course of a manipulated tournament consisting of three simulated races. Compared to athletes who’d won the first two races, athletes who’d lost the races perceived negative shifts in short-term momentum within the third race to be of greater magnitude, had their senses of self-efficacy go down more quickly and decreased how much effort they were exerting more quickly.

Psychological Momentum—A Key to Continued Success

In general, people strive to be efficient in completing tasks and in doing so, to save time and energy. PM facilitates this efficiency by making successful task completion more likely and faster. This efficiency principle of PM means that whatever tasks people undertake, perceptions of positive PM enhance their sense of success in goal pursuit. When they initially experience success, their self-confidence and competence grow, leading to heightened expectations, expanded mental and physical effort in task performance, increased perceptions of positive PM, and a greater likelihood of success (Figure (Figure1;1; Iso-Ahola and Dotson, 2015).

I mean... do I need to keep going here or am I going to get an admission that maybe, just maybe, you’re wrong on this one? I’ve referenced two of the GOATS IN THE SPORT that we are talking about as well as three independent studies by psychologists. Momentum has been quantified scientifically. It’s been quantified in sports, it’s been quantified in business, it’s been quantified in simple household chores. I’m left to believe that either A) you’re sticking to some argument that you took the wrong side on here at some point in time, or B) you have either never played a sport competitively or it’s been a VERRRRRY long time since you have. Either way, you’re not correct here and if it’s scientific studies that you’re looking for, I can provide many more. Oh, and yes... Super Bowl 51 was the perfect example of what positive momentum can do for, and against, a squad. That’s perhaps the biggest reason why you wanted the Patriots to win the toss in OT... even if it was subconscious.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I don't agree with your last statement. The Pats were trying to score right out of the chute, and BB also went for it on 4th down early in the game instead of kicking a field goal. They were trying to score as many points as possible without taking unnecessary risks. I'm 100% sure they'd rather have been up 20-3 rather than 10-3.

Yes in the first half the Pats were somewhat aggressive, but they were so certain the Rams weren't scoring that it shaped how they played the 2nd half (I also think they respected LA's defense and ability to create turnovers). Very conservative 2nd half, but out of confidence not fear.

 

[Pats Fanatic]

I think so, given the caliber of opponent, yes. Here are, IMO, the candidates for best defensive performance in a Super Bowl:

SB 3 - Jets 16, Colts 7
SB 18 - Raiders 38, Redskins 9
SB 20 - Bears 46, Patriots 10
SB 35 - Ravens 34, Giants 7
SB 42 - Giants 17, Patriots 14
SB 48 - Seahawks 43, Broncos 8
SB 53 - Patriots 13, Rams 3

Ok so let's break those down.

SB 3: Colts had the #2 scoring, #4 yardage offense in the NFL that year. They averaged 28.7 points a game, so the Jets held them to 21.7 fewer points than average. They allowed 324 total yards to Baltimore that day.

SB 18: Redskins had the #1 scoring, #3 yardage offense in the NFL that year. They averaged 33.8 points a game, so the Raiders held them to 24.8 fewer points than average. They allowed just 283 total yards to Washington that day. But the Raiders blew them out, so it made defense easier as the game went on.

SB 20: Pats had the #10 scoring, #9 yardage offense in the NFL that year. They averaged 25.8 points a game, so the Bears held them to 15.8 fewer points than average. They allowed just 123 total yards to NE in that game, but just as was the case with SB 18, the Bears were up by so much that it made NE one-dimensional, and a bad one at that.

SB 35: Giants had the #15 scoring, #13 yardage offense in the NFL that year. They averaged 20.5 points a game, so the Ravens held them to 13.5 fewer points than average. They allowed just 152 total yards to NY in that game, but see the previous two situations, as the lopsided score made playing defense easier. Also, the Giants' offense was the definition of mediocre that year.

SB 42: Pats had the #1 scoring, #1 yardage offense in the NFL that year. They averaged 36.8 points a game, so the Giants held them to 22.8 fewer points than average. They allowed just 274 total yards to NE in that game. Great performance against maybe the greatest offense the NFL has ever seen. -sigh-

SB 48: Broncos had the #1 scoring, #1 yardage offense in the NFL that year. They averaged 37.9 points a game, so the Seahawks held them to 29.9 fewer points than average. They allowed just 306 total yards to Den in that game. Great performance against an all-time great offense, but the lopsided score made it far easier to play the suddenly one-dimensional Broncos' offense.

SB 53: Rams had the #2 scoring, #2 yardage offense in the NFL that year. They averaged 32.9 points a game, so the Patriots held them to 29.9 fewer points than average. They allowed just 260 total yards to LA in that game. Great performance against one of the great offenses in history, AND the score was so tight all game long that there was absolutely no room for error.


So in SB 53, the Patriots tied the SB 48 Seahawks for the record of holding their opponents to more points under their average than any other team in SB history. Moreover, they held the Rams to fewer total yards than Seattle did Denver. AND the game was much tighter, meaning the defense had no margin for error all game long until the last drive of the game.

So yes, at WORST, it's on the short short list of best defensive performances in SB history, but a strong case can be made that it was numero uno, all things considered.

To me SB 6 Cowboy's defense was great vs. a Dolphins team that had a few offensive Hall of Famers and they only scored 3 points. The next year the Dolphins would have had a shut out if not for Yepremian's "pass".

 

[TruthSeeker]

Here are a series of articles providing a statistical look at momentum in football (links to articles 1-4 in article 5):

Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Momentum Part 5 - Series Level Analysis

This shows a very slight (essentially unnoticeable, certainly not statistically significant) momentum. I remember reading other statistical articles on momentum that showed a slight anti-momentum.

Bottom line is I've never seen any statistical proof for momentum.

 

[XLIX]

The thing that stood out to me the most was that as the game progressed - and it didn't take long to get to this point - I felt more comfortable when the Patriots' defense was on the field than the offense.

It had been probably at least a decade since I last had that feeling with this team.

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

Winning it with Defense.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

We finally got the game where the other QB sucked. I mean, great coaching and defense, but Goff really crapped the bed. That 3rd quarter pass to Cooks where he had roughly thirty yards of separation in the end zone, but the ball hung in the air for like six seconds? Wow. I knew after that pass that the Rams weren’t winning that game with Goff.

 

[slam]

Here's the weird observation about the game: The passing game was finally unlocked by splitting Dwayne Allen out wide and asking him to run fly routes. If someone told you that would be the case beforehand, you would've thought he was nuts. The defenses were so onto the offenses it took a counterintuitive strategy to break through.

 

[Lavictoire]

Just the way our defence played and how slow Goff looked at getting rid of the ball.

I have kept highlights of chargers/chiefs/rams games and usually watch at least one of them every week.....so good

I kept the Chiefs and Rams on DVR but regret now eventually deleting the Chiefs game. The talk then was how the Pats were lucky to beat the Chiefs at Foxboro but woe betide them in KC. In my mind I keep seeing Mahomes running for his life. I wish I kept that game.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Forgive me - I do not have any "X's & O's" to add. Instead I was happy to share the day with family and later that day with members of this site.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

I still chuckle at in 9 SBs since 2001:

- SB52 featured the most points the Pats scored in regulation...and lost.

- SB53 featured their fewest points scored...and the win was by their largest margin.

Regards,
Chris

 

[Uptown]

I remember converting the 3 consecutive third and longs in OT of the AFC title game. What are the odds, especially in that type of environment on the road?

Couldn’t have said it any better.

 

[Hyped]

Similarly, we are the Seahawks not running a ******ed pick play (pass all you want but make it absolute low risk; fade ?) and the Falcons running the ball and kicking a FG away from losing 49 and 51.

You shouldn't lament the ones you lose and take the ones you won in similar lucky fashion for granted at the same time.

LOL! I'll lament the losses all I want to. BTW, I tell the haters the same thing when they point out how lucky we were to win....

 

[Kontradiction]

Here are a series of articles providing a statistical look at momentum in football (links to articles 1-4 in article 5):

Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Momentum Part 5 - Series Level Analysis

This shows a very slight (essentially unnoticeable, certainly not statistically significant) momentum. I remember reading other statistical articles on momentum that showed a slight anti-momentum.

Bottom line is I've never seen any statistical proof for momentum.

The studies I posted are the closest you’re going to get to statistical proof. They wouldn’t have been published by psychologists if there wasn’t statistical significance in the data they collected. Ever been “in the flow?” Either at work, in sport, or somehow in your daily day-to-day? That’s momentum. In management and leadership, you want to give your constituents tasks that, while difficult, they can achieve. This increases levels of self-efficacy and gets them “in the flow.” That statement was quantified by research by Kouzes and Posner. That same mindset has utility in sports as well. You perform difficult tasks well as an athlete (put together drives, turn the offense over, etc), and you increase your flow. You begin to execute without thinking. That’s momentum.

 

[mosslost]

Michel needed one yard and got the game winning TD instead.

actually only took the lead. Then took the lead back, then we did again with Burkehead, then they tied it. Game winning score was Burkehead..