SlowGettingUp
2nd Team Getting Their First Start
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Interesting article in the Wall Street Journal today:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/kicking-after-a-touchdown-now-lacks-a-point-1442353209
I'll post some of it here in case this is a behind a paywall for some:
Thoughts?
http://www.wsj.com/articles/kicking-after-a-touchdown-now-lacks-a-point-1442353209
I'll post some of it here in case this is a behind a paywall for some:
Successfully kicking an extra point has long been the least impressive accomplishment in sports. From 2010-14, NFL kickers took 5,869 extra points and missed only 42. The play had become such an afterthought that the league made it more difficult this season, making the extra point a 33-yard kick rather than a 20-yard chip shot.
The plan already is working: four of 75 extra points were missed in Week 1 after 15 of 218 were missed in the preseason. Now, not only is the extra point no longer automatic, it may not even be worth trying—ever.
The NFL’s notoriously conservative coaches have viewed the two-point attempt as a risky maneuver suitable only late in games when the score demands it. But that thinking is based on the assumption that extra points are a given. Looking at the new percentages, the smart play may be to attempt 2-point conversions after every touchdown. Since 2010, teams made 2-point conversions at a rate of roughly 48%, making them worth 95.6 points per 100 attempts. Extra points, by comparison, were worth 99.3 points per 100 attempts from 2010 to 2014.. But if NFL kickers continue kicking the new 33-yard kick at a rate of 93.5%—the combined preseason and regular season rate in 2015—the 2-point conversion suddenly becomes the more logical choice on paper.
Plus there’s room for improvement, as some teams are clearly better at the play than others. The Giants, Steelers, Rams and Bears are a combined 38-for-45 on 2-pointers since 2010, while the Packers, Jets, Browns and Chiefs collectively are 4-for-31. A simple way to boost 2-point success may be merely calling more runs, which are converted 53.6% of the time compared with 46.4% on passing plays.
....
So two things are different for the Pats that move the decision in opposite directions - Gostkowski and the new all-tight-end goal-line package. If we assume Gostkowski is going to be at say 96% (up from league average so far of 94.7%) then we would only need a better than 48% conversion rate on 2-pointers to make it worth (on average) going for the 2.The plan already is working: four of 75 extra points were missed in Week 1 after 15 of 218 were missed in the preseason. Now, not only is the extra point no longer automatic, it may not even be worth trying—ever.
The NFL’s notoriously conservative coaches have viewed the two-point attempt as a risky maneuver suitable only late in games when the score demands it. But that thinking is based on the assumption that extra points are a given. Looking at the new percentages, the smart play may be to attempt 2-point conversions after every touchdown. Since 2010, teams made 2-point conversions at a rate of roughly 48%, making them worth 95.6 points per 100 attempts. Extra points, by comparison, were worth 99.3 points per 100 attempts from 2010 to 2014.. But if NFL kickers continue kicking the new 33-yard kick at a rate of 93.5%—the combined preseason and regular season rate in 2015—the 2-point conversion suddenly becomes the more logical choice on paper.
Plus there’s room for improvement, as some teams are clearly better at the play than others. The Giants, Steelers, Rams and Bears are a combined 38-for-45 on 2-pointers since 2010, while the Packers, Jets, Browns and Chiefs collectively are 4-for-31. A simple way to boost 2-point success may be merely calling more runs, which are converted 53.6% of the time compared with 46.4% on passing plays.
....
Thoughts?