Salary Cap Status as of 1/3

[Miguel]

Now I have a question for you - did you think the Patriots should have paid Branch and Givens what they got from the Seahawks and Titans??? Because at one time I could have sworn you didn't, but later it seemed as if you did. And what seemed to change your position was this team being in a position to afford it, rather than whether it represented good value.

If you are going to make the charge that I ever changed my position on Branch and Givens, please provide some proof. That type of charge directly changes my credibility on this board. At least provide a quote so that other readers can decide whether your take on my post is a reasonable.

I have not changed my position. Starting in the winter of 2005 I opined that Givens was not going to be a Patriot in 2006 because he was going to get paid more money than he would get from the Pats. I always said that Givens would have more value to another team than to the Pats. IIRC, I had the highest estimate for what Givens would get in FA and I was way off. As for Branch, I have said that the Patriots can not be blamed for losing Branch since he did not want to deal with the Pats.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=49540&page=2

I wrote:
"On January 22
Here are my problems with this premise that the Patriots were being cheap.

1.) The Patriots were not the only team in the NFL that entered the season millions under the cap.
2.)Nor were the Patriots the only team that use the phony LTBE incentive bonus move to use cap space this year.
3.)No one has explained how the Pats could have retained either Givens or Branch. - Why I wrote "no one" if I thought that the Pats could have kept one of them.
4.)No one has named a linebacker with good pass coverage skills that was available in free agency."

The charge that I changed my position on Branch and Givens is baseless.

 

[Miguel]

Unless they have so many young players because they can't afford to pay veteran salaries because of Manning and Harrison.

The Colts ended up with the highest payroll in the NFL this year. One could believe that it was because of the cash given to Manning and Harrison ($20 million) even though that duo took home less cash than did Brady and Seymour ($28.7 million). In other words, the Colts spent more money on players 3 through 53, PS players, and players on reserves lists than did the Patriots. On the other hand, one could believe that the Colts ended up with the highest payroll in the NFL because the combination of these three factors
1.)The Colts had 22 players on reserve lists.
2.) The Colts gave 15, maybe 16 players one million or more in cash this year. The Pats gave 16 players one million or more in cash.
3.) The Colts had 20 players with a cap hit of at least a million dollars. The Pats had 22 players with a cap hit of least a million dollars and one of them, Spann, was solely because of the phony LTBE move.

Either way, the notion that the Colts could not afford to pay veteran salaries of Manning and Harrison is not supported by any facts.

I am of the opinion that a SB appearance and a possible SB victory will help the Colts in the cash-flow department greatly so I do not foresee any cash-flow problems for the Colts in the near future.

 

[pats1]

1.)The Colts had 22 players on reserve lists.

Where did you get that number?!?

They had 6 on Injured Reserve:

Collins, Jerome
Doss, Mike
Goddard, Jonathan
Mungro, James
Stokley, Brandon
Welsh, Jonathan

They had 1 on Practice Squad Injured (barely any cap hit):

Burns, Sweet Pea

They had 1 on NFLE/Injured:

Johnson, Mike

They had 2 on Reserve/NFI:

Reagor, Montae
Simon, Corey

They had 1 Suspended:

Pope, Kendyll

They had 1 on Reserve/Left Squad:

Roberts, Corey
(Marsh was released)

...

That's a total of 12 on reserve lists, not 22.

...

Meanwhile, the Pats had 13 on IR, 1 on PSQ/Injured, 3 on NFLE/injured, and 1 on Reserve/Left Squad.

That's a total of 18.

And as another comparison, the Jaguars had 13 on IR, and the Texans had 17 on IR. The Titans had 10 on reserve lists.

The Colts ended up with the highest payroll in the NFL this year. One could believe that it was because of the cash given to Manning and Harrison ($20 million) even though that duo took home less cash than did Brady and Seymour ($28.7 million).

That's a bit misleading, Miguel, and you know it.

How much the Colts spend in cash doesn't really have an effect on whether they can afford other players. MLR isn't arguing if the teams are cheap or not - we know both owners probably wouldn't mind having a bigger cap for they can spend more. We all know Seymour got paid part of his option bonus this year, so that skews the numbers in your favor. We also know that 2006 was the last year they team still had to pay off Brady's previous deal's bonus.

Obviously the real number that matters in the realm of if a team can afford other players is the players' cap hit/teams' adjusted cap.

And let's not forget about these points:

-Manning is due a $10,000,000 roster bonus this March.
-Manning has only a $1,000,000 base salary in 2007, but look at all the backloaded money:

2008 11,500,000.00
2009 14,000,000.00
2010 15,800,000.00
2011 14,000,000.00
2012 14,000,000.00

 

[Miguel]

Only because his salaries are backloaded. He will also represent a substantial dead cap hit for a couple of years that will probably limit who they can replace Wayne with after he replaces Marvin.

Harrison is signed through the 2011 season with backloaded salaries. Backloaded salaries - that he will never see. IMO, the Colts and Harrison both know that he is never ever going to get the new money due him in the 2009/2010/2011 seasons so that they set up the deal so his dead money hits are going to be reasonable for those years. This is a fluff factor deal just like Willie's was. You can believe that the Colts will be redoing the deal while giving him that new money. I do not. One of us will be right. I am betting that it will be me.

If he is released in 2011, the dead money hit would be zero and the Colts would gain $11.4 million in cap space.
If he is released in 2010, the dead money hit would be $2 million and the Colts would gain $10 million in cap space.
Let's say that he is released in 2009. The Colts would probably spread the dead money hit over 2 years by releasing him on 6/2/2009. The dead money hit in 2009 would be $4,400,000 and $2,000,000 in 2010. The Colts would gain $9 million in cap space in 2009 and $10 million in 2010.
Let's say that he is released in 2008. The Colts would probably spread the dead money hit over 2 years by releasing him on 6/2/2008. The dead money hit in 2008 would be $4,400,000 and $6,400,000 in 2009. The Colts would gain $7.6 million in cap space in 2008 and $7 million in 2009.

Therefore, the Colts have the 2007 and 2008 seasons to worry about Harrison not being worth the new money due him and to find his eventual replacement. Harrison remains a Top 5 receiver and is definitely worth $4 million in new money in 2007.

 

[Miguel]

Where did you get that number?!?

From
http://www.localsports.ca/nfl_rosters/indianapolis_colts_dc.html

 

[pats1]

Where did you get that number?!?

From
http://www.localsports.ca/nfl_rosters/indianapolis_colts_dc.html

That's where I get my info too.

They are counting all of the guys who were just signed to futures contracts.

http://www.localsports.ca/nfl_rosters/indianapolis_colts_alpha.html

That's 9 guys, plus Marsh who was released according to KFFL. 22-10 = 12.

 

[Miguel]

That's a bit misleading, Miguel, and you know it.

I was being sarcastic.

Obviously the real number that matters in the realm of if a team can afford other players is the players' cap hit/teams' adjusted cap.

I totally agree. I have been arguing that for years now.

And let's not forget about these points:

-Manning is due a $10,000,000 roster bonus this March.
-Manning has only a $1,000,000 base salary in 2007, but look at all the backloaded money:

2008 11,500,000.00
2009 14,000,000.00
2010 15,800,000.00
2011 14,000,000.00
2012 14,000,000.00

Fluff numbers. The only way Manning sees those numbers is if he continues to be among the best players at his position through that time.

 

[Miguel]

That's where I get my info too.

They are counting all of the guys who were just signed to futures contracts.

http://www.localsports.ca/nfl_rosters/indianapolis_colts_alpha.html

That's 9 guys, plus Marsh who was released according to KFFL. 22-10 = 12.

Thanks for pointing me to the correct number. I should have looked around that site more.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Then what you are actually saying is that the raw rankings on the chart to which you linked cannot be used in any meaningful way to determine which teams will be well-off cap-wise next year, and which teams will not.

What is the purpose of posting this chart, then? Surely the majority of posters on this site, myself included, are not going to be able to use this information as it is?

FYI... The datum that you need for the Patriots is that as of 1/25/07, 49 players are under contract for 2007. Three starters are not. Samuels, TBC and Graham are not under contract.

he franchise price for all three is ($7.8 CB + 3.7 TE + 6.3? LB = $17.8) $17.8 million; but long term contracts are less expensive than franchise prices. And there is only $26.7 million available to sign them... Woe is us!

 

[pats1]

Fluff numbers. The only way Manning sees those numbers is if he continues to be among the best players at his position through that time.

I assume you are being sarcastic here too?

(At least in the sense that Manning is and probably will be for another 5 years or so among the best at QB)

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I assume you are being sarcastic here too?

(At least in the sense that Manning is and probably will be for another 5 years or so among the best at QB)

Yup, and he ain't gonna play for free (even though he should...) after 2007 just because they gave him a lot of bonus money that is just a fleeting memory where Tom Condon is concerned...

And if the Colts don't win next Sunday it may make it tough to expand their cash flow even with a new luxury box filled taxpayer funded stadium coming on line in 2008. He's got to sell those boxes in 2007, which could be a rough year for the Colts win or lose looking at how all but one recent Superbowl participant has fared in the aftermath of their appearance...

 

[pats1]

Yup, and he ain't gonna play for free (even though he should...) after 2007 just because they gave him a lot of bonus money that is just a fleeting memory where Tom Condon is concerned...

And if the Colts don't win next Sunday it may make it tough to expand their cash flow even with a new luxury box filled taxpayer funded stadium coming on line in 2008. He's got to sell those boxes in 2007, which could be a rough year for the Colts win or lose looking at how all but one recent Superbowl participant has fared in the aftermath of their appearance...

If the Colts lose, everything goes back to where it was, especially if the Pats defeat the Colts in their matchup next year.

 

[Miguel]

I assume you are being sarcastic here too?

(At least in the sense that Manning is and probably will be for another 5 years or so among the best at QB)

IMO, Manning is among the best at QB today. And going into 2007 he will be widely considered (maybe not on this board) to be among the best at his position, the most important position.

Let me be perfectly clear.

As soon as Manning stops one of the top players at his position, the days of his seeing Top 5 money will soon end. Do I know when Manning will stop being among the best at his position??No. Does anyone on this board know??? No. Do I think that it is likely that Manning will remain among the best at his position for a couple more years??

 

[Miguel]

If the Colts lose, everything goes back to where it was, especially if the Pats defeat the Colts in their matchup next year.

You and MLR are using the word "if" a lot. A certain someone (someone that I respect greatly) wrote on this board on 12/19/2006 "If you take away the first floor of a building, you no longer have a building any more.

On a serious note, IMO, once PM is no longer a Top 5 player, then the Colts will no longer be a serious SB contender. Hall of Fame quarterbacks do not come by that often. Please note that I also think that once Brady is no longer a Top 5 player, then the Pats will no longer be a serious SB contender.

I have been saying for years now that I have yet to see a team get into cap trouble paying Top 5 players Top 5 money. Teams get into trouble when they overpay for players. Is Manning worth $11 million in new money in 2007??I say yes. Is Harrison worth $4 million in new money in 2007?? IMO, that is a bargain price for him.

 

[pats1]

You and MLR are using the word "if" a lot. A certain someone (someone that I respect greatly) wrote on this board on 12/19/2006 "If you take away the first floor of a building, you no longer have a building any more.

Yes, yes, a certain someone...

On a serious note, IMO, once PM is no longer a Top 5 player, then the Colts will no longer be a serious SB contender. Hall of Fame quarterbacks do not come by that often. Please note that I also think that once Brady is no longer a Top 5 player, then the Pats will no longer be a serious SB contender.

I agree with the first point, but not the second.

I have been saying for years now that I have yet to see a team get into cap trouble paying Top 5 players Top 5 money. Teams get into trouble when they overpay for players. Is Manning worth $11 million in new money in 2007??I say yes. Is Harrison worth $4 million in new money in 2007?? IMO, that is a bargain price for him.

I'll still stick with the Pats' philosophy that brought the Lombardi home in 2001.

 

[everlong]

LG Ryan Lilja
RG Jake Scott
TE Ben Utecht
RDE Dwight Freeney
SLB Rob Morris
WLB Cato June
LCB Nick Harper
RCB Jason David

Lilja, David and Scott are RFAs, not UFAs.
Utecht does not start at TE. Dallas Clark does.

The Colts are UNDER the cap by those numbers by $4.9 million. They can easily free up another $15 million by redoing the deals of Manning, Glenn,McFarland and Mathis. If the Colts work out deal with Simon, they may be able to get out of his deal which would free up close to another $7 million.
Yeah, the Colts are in bad shape only if you believe that Manning will turn 33 next year and that Dallas Clark does not start for the Colts.

Before everyone says that it is bad to push money into the future, the Pats have been doing it every year since BB and Pioli have arrived in Foxboro. In 2006 they pushed money into the future with Dillon and Seymour.

Oh, my. The Colts may have to cut players or redo deals. Gee, every team cuts players or redoes player's deals each and every year. I finally get it -When the Patriots cuts a player or redoes a player's deal, it is a good salary cap practice. When the Colts does the same thing, it means salary cap hell for the Colts.

I think the Colts have shown a history of letting the LBs walk. Washington, Triplet, Thorton, Petersen being the big names. I think based on history we can assume June and Morris would be the players they would not give the big contact too. If they can sign them for a reasonable price they would do so. They probably view this position much like the Pats do the O-line where they figure they can get value in the draft and coach the players up to fit the system really quickly. If they can sign players for a value like the Pats did with Light, Koppen, or Neil then great, if they want big money like Woody or above value like Ashworth or Andruzzi then bye-bye.

There are a lot of 3-4 LBs to be found in the later rounds compared to other positions and they can troll the FA market and get a player who's 95% of the skill at 50% the cost. So it makes sense for them.

So they give RFA contracts to Lilja, David and Scott that's 3M or so and their rookies is 1.5M. So that's basically their cap space as it stands.

They re-do some deals for 10M and get deals done with Freeney and Harper that accounts for another 7M and they get Utecht done for another 1M. Leaving them 2M, maybe more depending on what they can get done.

June and Morris walk.

They're still a playoff team, but unless they hit on the draft with immediate impact players, and they have no second round pick, they are certainly a weaker team.

They have also put more debt on the back end. The good news for them is the cap is going up the next three years by a good percentage. So unlike the Titans who had to blow it up they will be able to maintain but can they get better?

It will be interesting to watch.

 

[Mainefan]

I feel exactly as if I've been listening to a group of physicists discussing string theory. I have great respect for all of you and I thank you for illuminating an aspect of professional football about which the average fan, even the fairly obsessive fan (like me) understands only to the point that he knows he doesn't understand it. It's discussions like this that lift PatsFans.com into the stratosphere.

 

[pats1]

I think the Colts have shown a history of letting the LBs walk. Washington, Triplet, Thorton, Petersen being the big names. I think based on history we can assume June and Morris would be the players they would not give the big contact too. If they can sign them for a reasonable price they would do so. They probably view this position much like the Pats do the O-line where they figure they can get value in the draft and coach the players up to fit the system really quickly. If they can sign players for a value like the Pats did with Light, Koppen, or Neil then great, if they want big money like Woody or above value like Ashworth or Andruzzi then bye-bye.

There are a lot of 3-4 LBs to be found in the later rounds compared to other positions and they can troll the FA market and get a player who's 95% of the skill at 50% the cost. So it makes sense for them.

So they give RFA contracts to Lilja, David and Scott that's 3M or so and their rookies is 1.5M. So that's basically their cap space as it stands.

They re-do some deals for 10M and get deals done with Freeney and Harper that accounts for another 7M and they get Utecht done for another 1M. Leaving them 2M, maybe more depending on what they can get done.

June and Morris walk.

They're still a playoff team, but unless they hit on the draft with immediate impact players, and they have no second round pick, they are certainly a weaker team.

They have also put more debt on the back end. The good news for them is the cap is going up the next three years by a good percentage. So unlike the Titans who had to blow it up they will be able to maintain but can they get better?

It will be interesting to watch.

Larry Tripplett is a DT.

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302232

 

[everlong]

You're correct my bad.