Perspective Pats fans, perspective..
But let's put that production into some perspective. Over the past five seasons, there have been 48 receivers drafted in the first two rounds. Brandon Lloyd's 2012 season?
#2 in Receptions [74] - Eddie Royal led rookies with 91 in 2008. Dwayne Bowe is 3rd with 70.
#6 in Yards [911] - DeSean Jackson posted 912.Justin Blackmon is next with 865.
#11 in Touchdowns [4] - Tied with Calvin Johnson and Sidney Rice.
So what does that mean? It means that if Dobson put up Lloyd's numbers as a rookie, he would have had one of the top five or six rookie seasons by a first or second round receiver of the past five years.
I'm sorry but IMO the premise of that article is terribly flawed.
In the last five years, there have been 53 instances of a wide receiver getting 129 targets or more in a season. In 51/53 of those cases, that player surpassed 911 receiving yards. The other two cases are Lloyd in 2012 and Larry Fitzgerald 2012 season, who was playing with some combination of Kevin Kolb, John Skelton and Max Hall.
My point? People need to stop throwing around "but Lloyd got almost 1000 yards" as if its impressive. Toss 129 balls in a guy's direction and they will get yards. Lloyd gained the least impressive 911 yards you can possibly manage. If one of Dobson or Boyce gets the luxury of having 130 balls thrown at them, they will get 911 yards as well. Its hard not to hit 911 yards if you get targeted 130 times.
Furthermore, Lloyd's catch rate versus his YPC adds some context to Lloyd's production last season. Generally possession-style receivers catch balls at a more efficient rate, and deep threat types have lower-percentage balls thrown in their direction. Look at the following YPC numbers:
Kevin Walter HST 12.6
Eric Decker DEN 12.5
James Jones GB 12.3
Brandon Lloyd NE 12.3
Jason Avant PHI 12.2
Brandon Stokley DEN 12.1
As you can see, Lloyd's YPC was firmly among those of a bunch of slot, possession-style receivers. However, lets look at the Catch rates of these players:
Kevin Walter HST 12.6 64.1
Eric Decker DEN 12.5 70.8
James Jones GB 12.3 68.8
Brandon Lloyd NE 12.3 57.4
Jason Avant PHI 12.2 74.6
Brandon Stokley DEN 12.1 74.6
Lloyd's efficiency as a target was firmly below the rest of the group, despite the fact that he offered the same payout as a target as they did. They gave their teams the same YPC and did so more reliably. To put this in perspective, we may look at other players with comparable catch rates, in the sub 60% area.
Steve L. Smith CAR 57.5 16.1
Miles Austin DAL 57.4 14.3
T.Y. Hilton IND 56.8 17.2
Josh Gordon CLV 56.2 16.1
Cecil Shorts JAX 54.5 17.8
Chris Givens SL 54.5 16.6
A bunch of pure deep threats more or less. What is my point? Throwing the ball to Brandon Lloyd last season was a high risk/low reward proposition. All this talk about "replacing Lloyd's production" is misguided - RELATIVE TO HIS ROLE. To use a baseball term, his production was replacement level.
If Dobson plays well in a smaller role, I will be pleased. If he is mediocre in a larger one like Lloyd, I will be thoroughly disappointed and surprised, as most starting WR in the NFL could manage Lloyd's numbers given his opportunity.
Don't forget Jerry Rice ran a 4.71 40 (seriously), and he's THE GOAT at WR. It's all about playing speed, and it looks like Dobson has a little bit of Moss in him with his sneaky fast strides (not comparing 40 time, but he's a long-strider).
