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Another common mistake made in offseason roster building projection is Cap Space Hit for combined 2021 Draft Class.
While the cost for Pats Draft Class is currently projected at 9M most these contracts will not make TOP 51. Only 1st and 2nd round picks (if they keep them) would make the top 51. So when you account TOP 51 rule only 1.5M would be taken off Free Cap.
@Miguel or @Sciz can correct me if im too much off.
Rule #1: Top players are acquired via trade, solid starters for mid to quarter market $ in Free Agency.
maybe not very likely scenario for BB but lets put it here for reference:
My personal preference would be Smith: he is more athletic, faster and under Vrabel developed into solid blocker. He improved every year and is still improving. He is also stronger in YAC & he looks to be more dependant injury wise as well. Henry is bigger, more to BBs prototype, although red zone efficiency were similar. Injuries slowed him down a bit and he was somehow able to regress as a blocker. Smith could also present easier competition since Titans are in cap trouble while Chargers are well positioned to fight for their FA if they choose so. Both are projected at around 10M apy with top market set by Kittle & Kelce standing at 15M so one of them could go higher than 10.
From value stand point trading for top TE would be cheaper: both Higbee and Brate at 6.5M apy, Errtz in his last yr 8.3M. Ertz is available for trade and might also be cut. The cost floated around is 4th rounder. Higbee and Brate would be more difficult to get since Tampa is ok in cap and Rams probably see him as core piece of going all in although something will have to give there with their cap situation. But as we know - everyone has a price tag..
With COVID, it looks like another wasted offseason for rookies. Push those picks to next year when your coaching and teaching advantage can really show.He can compensate loss of 2022 comp picks by trading some 2021 Draft picks for 2022.
This is interesting- thanks for this.5th YEAR OPTIONS RUNDOWN
From 2020 new CBA : Fifth-year options become fully guaranteed at the time they are exercised which is before May 3 in the fourth league year of their contracts. This makes the fourth year fully guaranteed as well.
This affects both strategies of team building and cap space over next 2 yrs.
Below are 2 rundowns, both pretty generous. Much better 1rd class than 2017 but bigger decision.
btw : Of the top 5 picks of 2017 Draft - only 1 5th yr option was exercised and only 17/32 combined. Over 20 projected this yr.
Best option is extension. Only McCaffrey agreed to extension before deadline. Only Garrett, Mahomes, Watson, Humphrey, T.White signed extensions with their original teams after.
(Tre'Davius White's contract could be considered one of most valuable currently in the league. Advantage Bills..)
Players on exercised options that were not extended and are in contract years are possible trade targets. Some intriguing names are on this list like
ED TJ Watt, CB Lattimore, DL Allen, WR Mike Williams, DE Barnett, TE OJ Howard, OT Ramczyk (also Engram, Njoku)
Same goes for players that will be declined this yr: interesting among projected maybe DE Davenport.
Projections of exercising agree on Pats own 2 decision: Wynn yes Sony no.
Projected cost for Wynn = 10M. (Sony would cost 4.5M & additional 1.3M fgtd in 2021).
Hopefully Wynn can stay healthy and gets extended on a bargain this yr.
btw : Darnold's option = 18.8M fully guaranteed at exercising!
5th year Options cost projections by Over The Cap:
Fifth Year Option Projections | Over the Cap
Fifth Year Option Projections | Over the Capoverthecap.com
5th year Options projections:
Weighing fifth-year options for 2018 NFL Draft's first-rounders
Gil Brandt examines which first-round picks from 2018 should have their fifth-year options picked up. Where do the Browns' Baker Mayfield and the Jets' Sam Darnold stand?www.nfl.comFifth-year option predictions for every first-round pick from 2018
The first-round picks from the 2018 NFL draft will be eligible for fifth-year options this offseason. Here are predictions as to who gets them.touchdownwire.usatoday.com
I agree with this part. I still like Henry more as a full package TE than Smith but that will also be reflected in his price in FA. I think we can easily swallow a 10-12m APY TE1 but that player really has to be the expected difference maker. If there is a TE1 signing then LaCosse is gone and we get 1.5M in cap space back. So there is already a kind of baked in discount.
None of those three are a potential TE1 for me and I am not really sure they'd be a real difference maker. Now if we were also to upgrade at WR then they immediately become interesting and effective complementary options. But on their own it would not really move the needle much.
I don't think there will be any substantial draft resources used -- unless some crazy opportunity presents itself -- and thats fine. With a FA upgrade and Asiasi making a year 2 jump we'd be in fine condition. Keene has always been a versatile wildcard that was more like an h-back to me and not a pure TE.
I’m going to disagree with your conclusion and think that BB declines the option on Wynn too. BB’s gone on the record before saying that you can’t be afraid of free agency. I think he’d be hesitant to give an injury-guaranteed $10m to Wynn when he has yet to complete a full NFL season. Yes, he’s looked good when out there, but he’s not out there enough yet. BB may also have his eye on a LT for that 1st round pick too.
I love the thread concept, by the way. I’d love to do a full analysis but haven’t had a chance yet. I’m a firm believer in using the free agency and trade period prior to the draft to shore up all a team’s weaknesses, so that there are no holes on the roster even if there are no exceptional players. That leaves the team free to draft the best player and best fit for the roster, so that if the board doesn’t fall their way for immediate need there won’t be a huge hole that could bring down the team. In other words, I want legit NFL vets (not saying stars, but guys who have proven they can play) signed for all current weak positions (really, everything except P, RB, and DB). That way they can draft any position and focus on getting the best player who will work in the Patriots system.
Agreed. I’ve always liked Zuber & was a proponent of him getting touches not only in space, but via the route tree as well. Definitely possesses an element that we could use going forward.Hidden Patriots: Pats Manufactured Touches For Rookie Wide Receiver
Patriots wide receiver Isaiah Zuber showed potential when New England manufactured ways to get the ball in his hands as a rookie.nesn.com
An often overlooked element of team building is player development. Most players don’t come into the NFL as finished products. The fastest way for a team to get better is for the players already on the roster to become better players.
We’ve not seen as much of this lately from the Patriots because playing for a championship every year makes it hard to be patient with young players, but we’ve watched Jonathan Jones develop from a special teamer to first rate slot corner. I would not be surprised to see the same from Myles Bryant going forward.
I shared the article about Isaiah Zuber above because I think Zuber has a chance to develop into a playmaker WR for the Pats. He really caught my eye when I started watching videos of Patriot draftees and UDFAs after last year’s draft. And, in his limited touches last season, he showed plus quickness and speed. Two attributes the Pats offense could certainly use.
Belichick has often spoke of the jump good players make from their 1st to 2nd seasons. We saw some of that last season (muted by there not being a hands on off-season) in the play of Jakobi Meyers and Damian Harris who developed into quality starters.
I would not be surprised to see JJ Taylor, Zuber, Devin Asiasi, and Dalton Keene do the same next season. They may not become All-Pros, but they can be skill players good enough to win big with a good OLine and the right QB.
I agree except for Myles Bryant. In the last game against the JETEs I thought he was awful. Maybe a bad game. We will see. Seems to short and slow.Hidden Patriots: Pats Manufactured Touches For Rookie Wide Receiver
Patriots wide receiver Isaiah Zuber showed potential when New England manufactured ways to get the ball in his hands as a rookie.nesn.com
An often overlooked element of team building is player development. Most players don’t come into the NFL as finished products. The fastest way for a team to get better is for the players already on the roster to become better players.
We’ve not seen as much of this lately from the Patriots because playing for a championship every year makes it hard to be patient with young players, but we’ve watched Jonathan Jones develop from a special teamer to first rate slot corner. I would not be surprised to see the same from Myles Bryant going forward.
I shared the article about Isaiah Zuber above because I think Zuber has a chance to develop into a playmaker WR for the Pats. He really caught my eye when I started watching videos of Patriot draftees and UDFAs after last year’s draft. And, in his limited touches last season, he showed plus quickness and speed. Two attributes the Pats offense could certainly use.
Belichick has often spoke of the jump good players make from their 1st to 2nd seasons. We saw some of that last season (muted by there not being a hands on off-season) in the play of Jakobi Meyers and Damian Harris who developed into quality starters.
I would not be surprised to see JJ Taylor, Zuber, Devin Asiasi, and Dalton Keene do the same next season. They may not become All-Pros, but they can be skill players good enough to win big with a good OLine and the right QB.
An often overlooked element of team building is player development. Most players don’t come into the NFL as finished products. The fastest way for a team to get better is for the players already on the roster to become better players.
Now that I’ve stated how valuable player development can be in team building. I’m now going to make the point that draft picks, well high draft picks anyway, are highly overrated in importance.
If they want to turn this around and quickly get back in the championship hunt, they should use their high picks and cap space to get players good enough to get there fast.