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CAP INTERMEZZO

Since lots of people are spending pats cap & paid Pats “reporters“ making rookie mistakes maybe just a few notes:

63M free cap is even much more than it looks at first sight:

1.
The 2021 cap hit will be 20-40% lower than average per year contract.
So if you want and go spend 60M of Pats 2021 Cap Space - you can sign c 80M worth of apy contracts.

f.e.: Hightower 2017 - one of top LB on the market — reported 4y/35.5M = 8.9M apy (all projections well over 10) = 5.3M cap hit in 2017
This is a bit backloaded since Pats were well in SB window. Here is more normal example of signing solid vet:
John Simon - solid starter/rotation > first reported 2y/7.1M = 3.5M apy turned into 2y/4.4M = 2.2apy = 1.8M cap hit (projected iirc 2y/12M)

2.
Those Cap Hits are actually even lower bc of the TOP 51 contracts rule. Every new contract higher than 51st contract replaces that contract. Usually that contract is around 0.8M. Pats already have 62 players signed. Current 51st contract is already around 0.8M.
That means Pats only lost around 4.5M cap space signing Hightower on 9M apy contract.

3.
Another common mistake made in offseason roster building projection is Cap Space Hit for combined 2021 Draft Class.
While the cost for Pats Draft Class is currently projected at 9M most these contracts will not make TOP 51. Only 1st and 2nd round picks (if they keep them) would make the top 51. So when you account TOP 51 rule only 1.5M would be taken off Free Cap.
@Miguel or @Sciz can correct me if im too much off.

4.
Also - even if Pats don't NEED to cut or restructure players, some additional 2021 cap will come from that anyway (high priced opt-outs etc)

5.
Projected apy contracts (that i will include in my positional listings to follow) will probably be even lower than normally due to tighter League Cap - especially after top tier.

6.
180M is the new floor now & expectations are higher - speculations between 185-195.


BTW - as projected earlier, Pats are now #3 in 2021 Free Cap after Indy traded for Wentz (and lost 25.4M). This means they are even better situated to take advantage of the bargain FA market 2021.
Pats are #1 in effective Cap Space in 2022!


Bottom line: 63M+ Free Cap can buy you a lot of team. Hope you can enjoy your roster building even more.

-.-
 
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3.
Another common mistake made in offseason roster building projection is Cap Space Hit for combined 2021 Draft Class.
While the cost for Pats Draft Class is currently projected at 9M most these contracts will not make TOP 51. Only 1st and 2nd round picks (if they keep them) would make the top 51. So when you account TOP 51 rule only 1.5M would be taken off Free Cap.
@Miguel or @Sciz can correct me if im too much off.

Thanks :)

 
re. BB spending this is a short history of PATS carryover $.




This doesn't mean BB is spending 60M and especially not in first part of FA. Some of the best opportunities come in the after June and before Oct deadline. Since cap is likely going over 180M and there's significant extra cap coming from releasing/retiring/restructuring opt-outs & possibly some other contracts, id guess he'll keep at least 20M for after Draft /june 1st - End Oct period, depending on QB situation/opportunities.

-.-
 
Rule #1: Top players are acquired via trade, solid starters for mid to quarter market $ in Free Agency.

One important thing i forgot to add here is that important byproduct or even significant product of this “rule“ is collecting compensatory picks (that in return are often used for trades next offseason).

This was always a cornerstone of BBs roster/draft picks management - so it will be interesting to see how it changes in this specific year where Pats dont have strong FA class of their own (only Thuney could generate high comp pick). Id guess roster needs and special FA opportunities due to lower market and higher Pats cap space would dictate a different approach and leave BB wo comp picks for the first time in a long time.

BB might still go for some lower comp picks at least. In this sense special attention should be placed to players that will be cut (and there will be plenty) since they dont count against comp picks formula. It is true like @Miguel says that these will be mostly older players so I hope BB can skip the comp picks hunt for once and concentrate on adding some prime age talent.

He can compensate loss of 2022 comp picks by trading some 2021 Draft picks for 2022. Pats have 10 picks and roster full of 1-2 year players (and old vets) as mentioned before: counting UDFA the last thing they need is use all 10 picks in 2021 Draft as well..


“Of 62 players currently under contract only 7 are in their prime (27-30) and only one of them is a starter - Mason + two regulars/rotational (J.Jones, Phillips) (im not including very uncertain players like opt-outs that never played a snap for NE). 8 players are well over 30 and the rest are kids many of them not having even one full year in the process.“
 
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maybe not very likely scenario for BB but lets put it here for reference:

 
5th YEAR OPTIONS RUNDOWN

From 2020 new CBA : Fifth-year options become fully guaranteed at the time they are exercised which is before May 3 in the fourth league year of their contracts. This makes the fourth year fully guaranteed as well.

This affects both strategies of team building and cap space over next 2 yrs.

Below are 2 rundowns, both pretty generous. Much better 1rd class than 2017 but bigger decision.
btw : Of the top 5 picks of 2017 Draft - only 1 5th yr option was exercised :) and only 17/32 combined. Over 20 projected this yr.
Best option is extension. Only McCaffrey agreed to extension before deadline. Only Garrett, Mahomes, Watson, Humphrey, T.White signed extensions with their original teams after.
(Tre'Davius White's contract could be considered one of most valuable currently in the league. Advantage Bills..)

Players on exercised options that were not extended and are in contract years are possible trade targets. Some intriguing names are on this list like
ED TJ Watt, CB Lattimore, DL Allen, WR Mike Williams, DE Barnett, TE OJ Howard, OT Ramczyk (also Engram, Njoku)

Same goes for players that will be declined this yr: interesting among projected maybe DE Davenport.


Projections of exercising agree on Pats own 2 decision: Wynn yes Sony no.
Projected cost for Wynn = 10M. (Sony would cost 4.5M & additional 1.3M fgtd in 2021).
Hopefully Wynn can stay healthy and gets extended on a bargain this yr.
btw : Darnold's option = 18.8M fully guaranteed at exercising!


5th year Options cost projections by Over The Cap:

5th year Options projections:
 
maybe not very likely scenario for BB but lets put it here for reference:


Damn, obviously hindsight is 20/20 but two firsts & a third for Mahomes is the equivalent of robbing an empty bank, without security cameras & an open safe. May go down as one of the top 3 trades in draft history. Going to be interesting to see how the remainder of his career plays out.
 
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My personal preference would be Smith: he is more athletic, faster and under Vrabel developed into solid blocker. He improved every year and is still improving. He is also stronger in YAC & he looks to be more dependant injury wise as well. Henry is bigger, more to BBs prototype, although red zone efficiency were similar. Injuries slowed him down a bit and he was somehow able to regress as a blocker. Smith could also present easier competition since Titans are in cap trouble while Chargers are well positioned to fight for their FA if they choose so. Both are projected at around 10M apy with top market set by Kittle & Kelce standing at 15M so one of them could go higher than 10.

I agree with this part. I still like Henry more as a full package TE than Smith but that will also be reflected in his price in FA. I think we can easily swallow a 10-12m APY TE1 but that player really has to be the expected difference maker. If there is a TE1 signing then LaCosse is gone and we get 1.5M in cap space back. So there is already a kind of baked in discount.

From value stand point trading for top TE would be cheaper: both Higbee and Brate at 6.5M apy, Errtz in his last yr 8.3M. Ertz is available for trade and might also be cut. The cost floated around is 4th rounder. Higbee and Brate would be more difficult to get since Tampa is ok in cap and Rams probably see him as core piece of going all in although something will have to give there with their cap situation. But as we know - everyone has a price tag..

None of those three are a potential TE1 for me and I am not really sure they'd be a real difference maker. Now if we were also to upgrade at WR then they immediately become interesting and effective complementary options. But on their own it would not really move the needle much.

I don't think there will be any substantial draft resources used -- unless some crazy opportunity presents itself -- and thats fine. With a FA upgrade and Asiasi making a year 2 jump we'd be in fine condition. Keene has always been a versatile wildcard that was more like an h-back to me and not a pure TE.
 
He can compensate loss of 2022 comp picks by trading some 2021 Draft picks for 2022.
With COVID, it looks like another wasted offseason for rookies. Push those picks to next year when your coaching and teaching advantage can really show.
 
5th YEAR OPTIONS RUNDOWN

From 2020 new CBA : Fifth-year options become fully guaranteed at the time they are exercised which is before May 3 in the fourth league year of their contracts. This makes the fourth year fully guaranteed as well.

This affects both strategies of team building and cap space over next 2 yrs.

Below are 2 rundowns, both pretty generous. Much better 1rd class than 2017 but bigger decision.
btw : Of the top 5 picks of 2017 Draft - only 1 5th yr option was exercised :) and only 17/32 combined. Over 20 projected this yr.
Best option is extension. Only McCaffrey agreed to extension before deadline. Only Garrett, Mahomes, Watson, Humphrey, T.White signed extensions with their original teams after.
(Tre'Davius White's contract could be considered one of most valuable currently in the league. Advantage Bills..)

Players on exercised options that were not extended and are in contract years are possible trade targets. Some intriguing names are on this list like
ED TJ Watt, CB Lattimore, DL Allen, WR Mike Williams, DE Barnett, TE OJ Howard, OT Ramczyk (also Engram, Njoku)

Same goes for players that will be declined this yr: interesting among projected maybe DE Davenport.


Projections of exercising agree on Pats own 2 decision: Wynn yes Sony no.
Projected cost for Wynn = 10M. (Sony would cost 4.5M & additional 1.3M fgtd in 2021).
Hopefully Wynn can stay healthy and gets extended on a bargain this yr.
btw : Darnold's option = 18.8M fully guaranteed at exercising!


5th year Options cost projections by Over The Cap:

5th year Options projections:
This is interesting- thanks for this.

I’m going to disagree with your conclusion and think that BB declines the option on Wynn too. BB’s gone on the record before saying that you can’t be afraid of free agency. I think he’d be hesitant to give an injury-guaranteed $10m to Wynn when he has yet to complete a full NFL season. Yes, he’s looked good when out there, but he’s not out there enough yet. BB may also have his eye on a LT for that 1st round pick too.

I love the thread concept, by the way. I’d love to do a full analysis but haven’t had a chance yet. I’m a firm believer in using the free agency and trade period prior to the draft to shore up all a team’s weaknesses, so that there are no holes on the roster even if there are no exceptional players. That leaves the team free to draft the best player and best fit for the roster, so that if the board doesn’t fall their way for immediate need there won’t be a huge hole that could bring down the team. In other words, I want legit NFL vets (not saying stars, but guys who have proven they can play) signed for all current weak positions (really, everything except P, RB, and DB). That way they can draft any position and focus on getting the best player who will work in the Patriots system.
 
I agree with this part. I still like Henry more as a full package TE than Smith but that will also be reflected in his price in FA. I think we can easily swallow a 10-12m APY TE1 but that player really has to be the expected difference maker. If there is a TE1 signing then LaCosse is gone and we get 1.5M in cap space back. So there is already a kind of baked in discount.



None of those three are a potential TE1 for me and I am not really sure they'd be a real difference maker. Now if we were also to upgrade at WR then they immediately become interesting and effective complementary options. But on their own it would not really move the needle much.

I don't think there will be any substantial draft resources used -- unless some crazy opportunity presents itself -- and thats fine. With a FA upgrade and Asiasi making a year 2 jump we'd be in fine condition. Keene has always been a versatile wildcard that was more like an h-back to me and not a pure TE.

TE is possibly most circumstantial position in NFL. Their production depends on so many outside factors.

Smith had 220 yds on 18 targets and 5 TDs in first 4 games of 2020 - second only to Kelce. Then Titans lost LT Lewan and Smith's job changed and so did his numbers. While his rec production plummeted, his value on the field didnt. Im sure his agent will be pushing this narrative to exceed relatively modest contract projections.

TE1 is therefore a wide proposition. You have two monster TEs in the game (+Gronk) and then a group of 10 or more on similar level/production with slightly different characteristics & circumstances. They are all valuable as TE1 on their teams and have TE1 potential but need circumstantial help to “move the needle“.

While Henry looks like top TE1, his production and value on the field lag behind this image a bit. Surprisingly his production and usage in blocking regressed quite significantly last 2 years after inj: LA Chargers: Five reasons to not re-sign Hunter Henry.
As rec he was catching 70% of targets, 11yds per reception, only 4 YAC and 9 TD over 2y combined. Smith's rec avg numbers are similar on less targets with 2 more TDs on far less RZ targets. While Henry's depth of target is better, Smith's YAC is significantly better.

Id be fine with both but Jonnu is on upward trajectory, more dependable and more versatile (adding 80 rushing yards and a TD as HB).

Higbee is a long shot to trade for anyway but his numbers as TE1-2 (sharing his targets with receiving TE Everett) are not far off (w Goff). He's no Gronk of course but he is quite a character :)

 
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I’m going to disagree with your conclusion and think that BB declines the option on Wynn too. BB’s gone on the record before saying that you can’t be afraid of free agency. I think he’d be hesitant to give an injury-guaranteed $10m to Wynn when he has yet to complete a full NFL season. Yes, he’s looked good when out there, but he’s not out there enough yet. BB may also have his eye on a LT for that 1st round pick too.

Thanks for chipping in!

Didnt make conclusion myself actually - those are projections of league pundits ;)
It is very rare even for average starting LTs that options are not picked up. Id be surprised to see any different re Wynn regardless of BBs FA philosophy or “inj history“. Wynn was very dependable long time starter in college so there is reason to believe his injury luck turns in NFL.

This is not about being afraid of FA, its about taking advantage of the opportunity. Lack of extending homegrown talent (or any talent entering their prime for that matter) is one of the biggest flaws of current roster as analysed earlier. Securing one of better LTs in the league for half price for another year is always a bargain. Guarantee is a risk but one that they can certainly take in current roster/cap situation. Id prefer straight extension using his two more cheaper years as basis for bargain deal. If you dont extend him and Wynn stays healthy you're going straight to 20M+ apy deal or 15M FT losing at least one cheaper year and chance for bargain contract. If they believe Cajuste or Herron can be quality starters than its another matter but we haven't seen that yet.

Deadline is May 3 so we will see what Draft brings first. I agree its a deep OT class and I would draft OT (and another IOL w center experience) and then with additional positional security make team friendly extension offer to Wynn :) If he doesn't take it Id buy another cheap year of a player that can play 4 positions high quality.

Lets say Pats draft f.e. Meinertz in 3rd and Christensen in 4th - they could have top OL unit incl. depth for c.23M avg over 2 years (= one top LT contract) & relatively low Draft investment leaving top 2 picks for QB or D or trade.

LT: Wynn (7M*) - Cajuste (0.9M) - Christensen(0.8M) . . . . . *cap hit avg over 2 yrs
LG: Onwenu - Wynn - Meinertz (0.8M)
C: Andrews (3-5M) - Meinertz
RG: Mason (10M) - Onwenu - Meinertz
RT: Christensen - Onwenu (0.8M) - Herron (0.8M)

This gives you top quality 2021 OL Day 1, injury security, time for development and ton of flexibility to move on/trade in 2022 whoever you want.
If you want to trade away my guy Wynn 10M get off the books and net nice draft pick.

Having said all this i can certainly see your argument for declining - i just wouldn't like to see it happen :)


I love the thread concept, by the way. I’d love to do a full analysis but haven’t had a chance yet. I’m a firm believer in using the free agency and trade period prior to the draft to shore up all a team’s weaknesses, so that there are no holes on the roster even if there are no exceptional players. That leaves the team free to draft the best player and best fit for the roster, so that if the board doesn’t fall their way for immediate need there won’t be a huge hole that could bring down the team. In other words, I want legit NFL vets (not saying stars, but guys who have proven they can play) signed for all current weak positions (really, everything except P, RB, and DB). That way they can draft any position and focus on getting the best player who will work in the Patriots system.

100%
 
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An often overlooked element of team building is player development. Most players don’t come into the NFL as finished products. The fastest way for a team to get better is for the players already on the roster to become better players.

We’ve not seen as much of this lately from the Patriots because playing for a championship every year makes it hard to be patient with young players, but we’ve watched Jonathan Jones develop from a special teamer to first rate slot corner. I would not be surprised to see the same from Myles Bryant going forward.

I shared the article about Isaiah Zuber above because I think Zuber has a chance to develop into a playmaker WR for the Pats. He really caught my eye when I started watching videos of Patriot draftees and UDFAs after last year’s draft. And, in his limited touches last season, he showed plus quickness and speed. Two attributes the Pats offense could certainly use.

Belichick has often spoke of the jump good players make from their 1st to 2nd seasons. We saw some of that last season (muted by there not being a hands on off-season) in the play of Jakobi Meyers and Damian Harris who developed into quality starters.

I would not be surprised to see JJ Taylor, Zuber, Devin Asiasi, and Dalton Keene do the same next season. They may not become All-Pros, but they can be skill players good enough to win big with a good OLine and the right QB.
 
Now that I’ve stated how valuable player development can be in team building. I’m now going to make the point that draft picks, well high draft picks anyway, are highly overrated in importance.

My mother (God bless her) let me skip school in 1980 to watch my first draft, so I’ve been following this for awhile now.
Free agency and the salary cap has changed the draft some but not as much as the changes in the college game and advances in training and nutrition have.

To put in succinctly, there are now more players coming out with the physical attributes to play in the NFL but fewer known or proven prospects because most of these guys only play two seasons before declaring for the draft. We’ve seen it for ourselves. Jakobi Meyers a UDFA is a better WR than 1st rounder N’Keal Harry. JC Jackson and Jon Jones are worlds better players than Duke Dawson and Joe Juan Williams et al taken in the 2nd round. We’ll probably look back at it some day and see that the two best and most valuable players the Pats got in last year’s draft were Olinemen selected in the 6th round.

The draft really begins on day 3. With that said, I’ve come to the conclusion that the Pats should not be shy about trading high draft picks for players they want who are good enough to not be a cap casualty but still might be available via trade from teams with cap problems.

If they want to turn this around and quickly get back in the championship hunt, they should use their high picks and cap space to get players good enough to get there fast. If Bill had his way, Jimmy G would have never left. Why let a draft pick or two get in the way of getting him back. Maybe, Atlanta might be willing to trade Julio Jones or the Browns OBJ. Brady really liked OJ Howard before he got hurt. That’s good enough for me. Maybe, the Bucs will deal him because they need cap space to keep most of it together. Perhaps, the Lions will trade us Trey Flowers who’s a difference maker in a Belichick defense.
 

An often overlooked element of team building is player development. Most players don’t come into the NFL as finished products. The fastest way for a team to get better is for the players already on the roster to become better players.

We’ve not seen as much of this lately from the Patriots because playing for a championship every year makes it hard to be patient with young players, but we’ve watched Jonathan Jones develop from a special teamer to first rate slot corner. I would not be surprised to see the same from Myles Bryant going forward.

I shared the article about Isaiah Zuber above because I think Zuber has a chance to develop into a playmaker WR for the Pats. He really caught my eye when I started watching videos of Patriot draftees and UDFAs after last year’s draft. And, in his limited touches last season, he showed plus quickness and speed. Two attributes the Pats offense could certainly use.

Belichick has often spoke of the jump good players make from their 1st to 2nd seasons. We saw some of that last season (muted by there not being a hands on off-season) in the play of Jakobi Meyers and Damian Harris who developed into quality starters.

I would not be surprised to see JJ Taylor, Zuber, Devin Asiasi, and Dalton Keene do the same next season. They may not become All-Pros, but they can be skill players good enough to win big with a good OLine and the right QB.
Agreed. I’ve always liked Zuber & was a proponent of him getting touches not only in space, but via the route tree as well. Definitely possesses an element that we could use going forward.
 

An often overlooked element of team building is player development. Most players don’t come into the NFL as finished products. The fastest way for a team to get better is for the players already on the roster to become better players.

We’ve not seen as much of this lately from the Patriots because playing for a championship every year makes it hard to be patient with young players, but we’ve watched Jonathan Jones develop from a special teamer to first rate slot corner. I would not be surprised to see the same from Myles Bryant going forward.

I shared the article about Isaiah Zuber above because I think Zuber has a chance to develop into a playmaker WR for the Pats. He really caught my eye when I started watching videos of Patriot draftees and UDFAs after last year’s draft. And, in his limited touches last season, he showed plus quickness and speed. Two attributes the Pats offense could certainly use.

Belichick has often spoke of the jump good players make from their 1st to 2nd seasons. We saw some of that last season (muted by there not being a hands on off-season) in the play of Jakobi Meyers and Damian Harris who developed into quality starters.

I would not be surprised to see JJ Taylor, Zuber, Devin Asiasi, and Dalton Keene do the same next season. They may not become All-Pros, but they can be skill players good enough to win big with a good OLine and the right QB.
I agree except for Myles Bryant. In the last game against the JETEs I thought he was awful. Maybe a bad game. We will see. Seems to short and slow.
 
An often overlooked element of team building is player development. Most players don’t come into the NFL as finished products. The fastest way for a team to get better is for the players already on the roster to become better players.

Thanks for highlighting this great point mostly completely overlooked and marginalized not only by fans and posters but s.c. experts and of course media as well. Nothing sexy about trusting the process one has no access to.

I remember how players like White, Cannon and so many others were trashed for years here only to become key pieces of SB runs. The roster is full of young players that hardly had a chance for normal process esp. on this demanding offense. For many different reasons the roster is depleted of homegrown talent in their prime and hopefully now is the time for this to change.

White was trash, jag, not nfl player for 2 years, like Harry. And in much more stable environment with Brady and quality vets. Not that i am holding too much hope for Harry . but if only a few of the guys like Harry, Olszewski (on Edelman trajectory), Zuber, Asiasi, Keene, Cajuste, Herron, Jennings, Maluia, Bryant, Williams, Jackson can step up - this roster has significantly different look and needs..

Now that I’ve stated how valuable player development can be in team building. I’m now going to make the point that draft picks, well high draft picks anyway, are highly overrated in importance.

If they want to turn this around and quickly get back in the championship hunt, they should use their high picks and cap space to get players good enough to get there fast.

I feel a lot of 2017 dejavu. Our Draft Board was excited about new Draft class esp. edge, there was plenty of draft capital available and BB traded away most of it incl. top 2 picks. In the end he used only 4 picks in the Draft. 4 yrs later most of that draft class is available in FA (and that makes it even more interesting) incl. many top draft picks. Feels almost like 2017 redraft.

I already suggested this offseason might be/should be about targeting vets in prime years (trade & FA). I just hope with better success than 2017 ;)

BB 2017 Draft punt - trading for 2WR, 2DE, 2TE, 2ST vets:

Cooks - 1&3 for 4
Dorsett - Brissett
Ealy - 2 for 3
Marsh - 5&7
D.Allen - 4 for 6
O'Shaughnessy - 5 for 6
Bademosi - 6
M.Flowers - 7

This was of course the year they traded away Jimmy. Bringing him back would just complete the feeling of full circle..

-.-
 


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