Filling holes

[Snake Eyes]

I was never really a fan of any of those guys, you can go back and look. I remember being intrigued by Gholston because of all the hype, but when his stock skyrocketed due to the combine I became apprehensive.

I was never a Maybin/English/Hughes advocate. However, there were other guys that I wanted to see the Pats take at OLB.

I don't get why people write off English as a bust so quickly. The guy kind of reminds me of what happened with Mayo. He had a good rookie year, then in his second year he was injured and tried to play through it and was criticized for taking a step back. It's just like when people were saying Mayo will never be a playmaker or a top flight ILB. Give English a chance to be fully healthy and let's see what he does this year.

To basically call Jerry Hughes a bust already is simply laughable. I don't even like the guy that much as 3-4 OLB for the Pats because I think he's too much of just a pure speed rusher, but he was a rookie behind one of the best DE tandems in the league for the past 5 years in Freeney and Mathis. I have a feeling it has something to do with him being a Colt.

If Hughes was drafted at the end of the first round by the Pats back when the Pats had McGinest/Vrabel or Vrabel/Colvin or Vrabel/Colvin/AD, and Hughes was inactive for most of the year, you would simply say he's behind more talented and more experienced players on the depth chart who are in their prime and have a great deal of familiarity in the scheme. You'd say it's great that Belichick is "preparing for the future and preparing for life after Vrabel/McGinest" by giving Hughes time to learn under great players/mentors like Vrabel and McGinest. You wouldn't be saying "he's a bust he can't even get on the field."

But since Hughes was drafted by the Colts, he's not being groomed and developed by great players like Freeney/Mathis, he's not a draft pick that is more about being a full time starter in 2-3 years from now, he's not even a good investment by the Colts. He's a bad pick, bust, etc. Let's give the guy a chance to show us what he can do on the field before we judge him for not being able to crack the starting lineup as a rookie behind one of the best DE tandems of the last decade.



You see things based on what can and will happen? Seems like you are a bit confident in yourself and your own evaluations. Comes off as a bit arrogant and smug to me, but that's neither here nor there, is it?

To me, you see things through the eyes of a highly optimistic Pats fan. If you think a guy like Rob Ninkovich or Tully Banta Cain is the answer at OLB, frankly, I don't even know what to say to you. You can feed me all you want about experience, years in Belichick's defense, etc. I don't buy it. When you watch Rob Ninkovich play, it's obvious that he is not even remotely close to a Vrabel or McGinest. But if you want to believe that, then go ahead.

I'm just trying to be more of a realist. I know you claim that you can "see things how they are going to happen" but I don't know what you are basing your predictions/assumptions on.

I LIKED the Jermaine Cunningham pick a year ago and still like him as a player, but what have you seen from him that makes you think he will be the next Willie Mac type of OLB? Nothing. He was injured and had a few decent/good plays here and there, but there wasn't a big enough sample size to truly judge. I see a lot of Florida/Miami/Florida St college games, and I always liked Cunningham as sort of a complementary OLB - not the stud that you have to game plan around (Dunlap), but a guy that will show up play hard, and will make some big plays for you ever now and then.

Almost everyone in the media tabbed the Pats a "no name defense" when they were winning Super Bowls. They all credited Belichick and his scheme and the emphasis on team defense rather than individual stars. But that really was just something stirred up by the media.

We saw first hand how truly "talented" the likes of Bruschi, Seymour, Harrison, Colvin, McGinest, Law, etc. were once we started losing them to retirement, free agency, injury, etc. They were actually some of the better players in the game at their respective positions.

Law was a shutdown corner, one of the best in the game in his prime. McGinest was one of the best OLB I've ever seen play - he could do it all: set the edge, rush the passer, drop in coverage. He was clutch in the postseason. Bruschi and Vrabel were vastly under-rated big time playmakers with great intellect. Harrison was one of the most intimidating safeties to ever step on the field.

That's my issue with the way Belichick has gone about filling holes. Recently, he's opted for the cheaper/patch-work options rather than addressing his needs assertively. Maybe it's because Pioli is no longer here. Maybe it's because guys like Rodney Harrison or Vrabel just don't hit the market as much anymore with how ridiculously high the salary cap has gotten. Maybe it's because he's just inept at developing an OLB. Look back and tell me what OLB Bill has drafted and developed. The best you can come up with? Banta-Cain. Not good.

But quite honestly, with Brady's window closing by each passing season, I'm sick of the likes of Derrick Burgess or Tully Banta Cain to try to plug the hole at OLB. I'm sick of signing Gerard Warren, Damione Lewis, Deaderick, Pryor, Brace, etc to try to replace Seymour at DE. I'm sick of seeing Asante Samuel being shown the door, only to see our CB's the next season be some combination of Hobbs, Delthea O'Neal, Jason Webster, Fernando Bryant, and two rookies. The last time the Pats were very aggressive in addressing needs was after the 07 AFCCG loss to Indy, and it resulted in an 18-1 almost perfect season.

I'm all for the way Bill loves to stockpile draft picks, but there comes a point in time where you have to cash them in and either trade up in the draft for elite talent or trade those picks for an elite player. That's how you get a WR like Brandon Marshall or Anquan Boldin or Vincent Jackson for Brady. That's how you get a pass rusher like Brian Orakpo or Peppers or Mario Williams. That's how you get a dominant defensive lineman like Suh. More often than not, you've got to shell out the cash and/or assets to get a player of that caliber.

I don't know how you expect the Pats to add championship caliber talent by continually collecting 2nd round picks and trading back. Sure, Bill has hit on some guys like Gronk, Vollmer, and Chung who all seem to have very bright futures. But there have also been some big time whiffs - Wheatley, Brace, Butler, Chad Jackson.

Maybe instead of spending 2nd and 3rd round picks year after year trying to find a WR, you can trade up and get a sure-fire one or trade your picks for a proven NFL player. Don't like the sound of that? Oh, well it just so happens that the two best acquisitions the Pats had at WR over the last 4-5 years were Moss and Welker. Both of whom the Pats traded picks for. Seems to me there is better "value" in that.

Filling Hole at WR:
Trading a 2nd and a 7th for Welker. Trading a 4th for Moss.
v.s.
Spending a 2nd rounder on Chad Jackson, spending a 3rd rounder on Tate, spending a 3rd rounder on Taylor Price.

The same thing applies to what happened at CB after Asante left. Rather than just re-signing him, they brought in a bunch of JAG's who they thought they could coach up or mask the deficiencies of with the scheme. Didn't work. Then they have proceeded to spend FOUR straight years of picks on CB's: 08 Wheatley/Wilhite, 09 Butler, 2010 McCourty, 2011 Dowling. The only one of those guys we know for sure that can play legitimately in the NFL is McCourty. That's not good value to me, Bill.

I wish we still had Dimitroff in our FO. He's done a great job of addressing his team's needs AGGRESSIVELY through the draft and free agency. At least he's got the stones to go for it with Julio Jones, Dunta Robinson, Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, etc. He's traded up more aggressively in his short time there than Bill has in his whole time with NE. I love Bill as a coach, but his front office skills are not as elite as I once thought they were.

1) BB isn’t perfect
2) Hindsight is 20/20

That being said, I would LOVE to have Suh as a Patriot but what would we have to give up to get him in terms of 1) draft picks, and 2) cap space. Getting Suh means we can’t get/keep other players. While we haven’t had post-season success lately we’ve upgraded a lot in the past 2 drafts and went 14-2 last season, not too shabby for someone that you criticize so vehemently.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

1) BB isn’t perfect
2) Hindsight is 20/20

That being said, I would LOVE to have Suh as a Patriot but what would we have to give up to get him in terms of 1) draft picks, and 2) cap space. Getting Suh means we can’t get/keep other players. While we haven’t had post-season success lately we’ve upgraded a lot in the past 2 drafts and went 14-2 last season, not too shabby for someone that you criticize so vehemently.

Not saying that BB is perfect. There is not another coach I'd rather have. But I do think a lot of his personnel moves over the last few years are questionable. He waited too long to start rebuilding the LB corps. We have had glaring holes at OLB and DE for the past few years and they have still not been filled. The pass rush has been a major problem for 3+ years. He has tried to fill the voids left by the departures of Asante/Seymour/McGinest/Vrabel/Colvin with a lot of JAG's. That's just simply a fact when you go back and look at it.

I agree that trading up for a guy like Suh costs you a lot in assets (draft picks) and cap space. But not so crippling that you can't keep your other important players.

What other team in recent history has wanted to re-sign a marquee player but has not been able to due to cap space reasons? I can't really think of any, can you? Maybe the Jets this year with all their free agents. But other than that, almost every team has been able to keep their marquee players from a financial/cap space perspective. I do not recall one team that was in "cap jail" due to trading up.

I am in no way suggesting that this team should move up every single year and should just cash in all their picks for a top 5 pick every season. It's not possible and it's not smart business. But if you want a guy like Suh, who really reminds me of a young Seymour, you've got to pay the price. One or two move trade-ups to get into the top 10 or 15 picks to grab an OLB and DE will not hamstring this team financially, especially with the way Belichick has hit on first round picks.

 

[VJCPatriot]

If the answer is that he is at least a round better than Ridley,
then why not take Leshore at 56, then bluff your way to Vereen at 73?

Part of the draft process is like playing poker:
you have to know when to hold (waiting for a prospect to fall to you),
and when to fold (trading up/pouncing on a prospect before the other guy does).
Drafting Ridley at 73 is akin to going All In when dealt a pair of pocket deuces.
And drafting 2 RBs within the top 75 is simply improper asset management,
esp. when we are stuck with CRAP at DE & OLB.

This really comes down to Vereen vs Leshoure. And Vereen is just a better route runner and pass catcher, arguably the best catching RB in this year's draft. With Tom Brady coming off an MVP season, you want to stock his cupboard with weapons because your offense works best with the ball in his hands. Vereen is a dual threat that can really add another dimension to the RB corps, the way that Hernandez added a new dimension to the TE group. If we're talking about mismatches, Vereen is another matchup nightmare for defenses to handle.

As for playing poker, BB plays it as well or better than any other GM in the NFL. The way he plays though is that he 'stacks' his hand with more chips so that he can go 'all in' on the hands he likes, and he can 'fold' on the hands he doesn't. Apparently BB liked the Shane Vereen hand better than taking a chance on Leshoure and hoping to nab Vereen 'on the river'. It's easy to criticize poker players AFTER the fact, but the fact is they don't know for sure about the hand the other teams are holding or hoping to get.

So let's consider the odds:

1st RB selected Mark Ingram #28 NO
2nd RB selected Ryan Williams #38 ARI
3rd RB selected Shane Vereen #56 NE
4th RB selected Mikel Leshoure #57 Det
5th RB selected Daniel Thomas #62 Mia
6th RB selected Demarco Murray # 71 Dal
7th RB selected Stevan Ridley #73

Ok so from selections #56 to #73 there were 5 RBs selected. What are the odds that Vereen lasts till #73. Consider that there are 16 picks in between #56 and #73. And each RB taken off the board affects the next picks, so really you have to sit tight for 16 picks or a 1/16 chance to see if there is a team in between that would have liked Vereen had the Pats not scooped him up at #56. Pretty BAD poker odds. Furthermore if the Pats strongly felt that Vereen was their guy and Leshoure WASNT, why would you take those 1/16 odds? (6.25%)

You certainly don't have to like the Ridley pick. And you are entitled to anoint Leshoure as your binky. But I think looking at the odds from a purely statistical standpoint, not only did the Pats get their man in Vereen, they also played poker 'correctly' by not waiting on a 1/16 chance that their versatile pass-catching RB target would last all the way untill #73.

I agree that trading up for a guy like Suh costs you a lot in assets (draft picks) and cap space. But not so crippling that you can't keep your other important players.

1. Draft pick capital - You would need to pull a Ditka to acquire Suh. That never turns out well, no matter how good the player ends up. See Herschel Walker.

2. Cap space - "FOX Sports' Jay Glazer is reporting that Ndamukong Suh's five-year deal with the Lions includes $40 million guaranteed". The cap hit is enormous and keep in mind that Suh was not a proven player at the time he was drafted. Of course all indications were he would become a monster but no guarantees. It's always risky drafting at the top no matter how highly rated the prospect is or the glowing reviews the scouts give.

Would I love to have Suh on this team? Of course, who wouldn't. But it's just not reailistic given the risks and the price you'd have to pay in draft capital, cash, and cap room to sign that #1 pick.

 

[Sciz]

Suh's contract averages $13.6M a year at the maximum, but after his 10-sack season, I'm pretty sure he's going to hit all of those incentives. That's as much as Wilfork ($8M average) and Bodden ($5.5M) combined. I'd say that's pretty significant.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Not saying that BB is perfect. There is not another coach I'd rather have. But I do think a lot of his personnel moves over the last few years are questionable. He waited too long to start rebuilding the LB corps. We have had glaring holes at OLB and DE for the past few years and they have still not been filled. The pass rush has been a major problem for 3+ years. He has tried to fill the voids left by the departures of Asante/Seymour/McGinest/Vrabel/Colvin with a lot of JAG's. That's just simply a fact when you go back and look at it.

That's the key, take a look at Vrabel and Bruschi, neither one were drafted early but they became cornerstones in the NE defense. I don't know how long you've been following the draft but how have your picks over the years done compared to who BB has picked?

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

1. Draft pick capital - You would need to pull a Ditka to acquire Suh. That never turns out well, no matter how good the player ends up. See Herschel Walker.

2. Cap space - "FOX Sports' Jay Glazer is reporting that Ndamukong Suh's five-year deal with the Lions includes $40 million guaranteed". The cap hit is enormous and keep in mind that Suh was not a proven player at the time he was drafted. Of course all indications were he would become a monster but no guarantees. It's always risky drafting at the top no matter how highly rated the prospect is or the glowing reviews the scouts give.

Would I love to have Suh on this team? Of course, who wouldn't. But it's just not reailistic given the risks and the price you'd have to pay in draft capital, cash, and cap room to sign that #1 pick.

I was using Suh as a hypothetical, not saying the team should have gone up and grabbed him.

My point is that in order to get those elite 3-4 DE's like Seymour or those elite 3-4 OLB like Ware/Merriman/Orakpo/Matthews/Suggs or simply a top flight pass rusher like Peppers or Mario Williams, you've got to move up from where the Pats are usually drafting.

I'd like to, for once, see the Pats identify a Seymour or Willie Mac type of player and move up and grab him. I'm tired of trying to see those holes plugged with the likes of Ninkovich at OLB or Deaderick/Brace at DE.

I know that it is a risk, and it is something that cannot be done every year. But with BB's drafting acumen in the first round, you have to be confident he'd hit on the guy. I don't buy into the "cap jail" part of the argument. It doesn't exist.

Maybe I just have a more aggressive mentality than Bill does, for better or worse. I'd rather trade two 2nd rounders for Brandon Marshall than try to use both or one of those 2nd rounders to find a #1 WR. I'd rather trade up and get Orakpo than trade down and accumulate more picks but settle for lower quality talent. I'll take quality over quantity any day.

I agree that what Ditka did can set a franchise back for years. I do not want the Pats to do that, and I actually prefer to build through the draft like the Pats do rather than through free agency like the Redskins attempt to do. But I'm kind of sick of seeing BB trade back every single year and take a ton of 2nd and 3rd round picks b/c the "value" is better.

He's been 50/50 in these rounds. He's had some good finds like Chung, Vollmer, Gronk. He's had some bad busts like Wheatley, Brace, Chad Jackson. He's had some guys like Butler and Tate who really have done nothing yet to prove that they can consistently contribute. How many of the Pats third rounders in past 3-5 years have been major contributors? Not many.

I'd almost rather take some of those second and third round picks and cash them in to move up and grab a stud. It's risky, but BB has really never whiffed in the first round. For example, at CB, I'd rather trade up and get a guy like Revis (obviously) in the first round, rather than spend year after year using 2nd rounders and late first rounders on CB's (Wheatley, Butler, McCourty).

That's the key, take a look at Vrabel and Bruschi, neither one were drafted early but they became cornerstones in the NE defense. I don't know how long you've been following the draft but how have your picks over the years done compared to who BB has picked?

The point is that neither one was drafted by BB. Bruschi was drafted by Parcells. Vrabel was signed after having been in the league for four years. He had a few decent years in Pitt -- it's not like he was a rookie that BB scouted out and drafted, but it was still a good find by him.

I'm not saying that I am and/or would be better than BB. Not only do I not have BB's background/football intellect/experience/etc, I can only try to project guys based on what I see on TV during the college football season (like all other fans).

I said in another thread, I wanted Lawson for OLB pretty badly when we took Maroney. That would have been a meh pick. But back in 09 the three guys I really wanted to see the Pats trade up for were Harvin, Orakpo, and Vontae Davis. All three look like they would've been big-time hits for us. But in 08 I kind of wanted Keith Rivers when we had a top 10 pick. Mayo was definitely the better choice. In 07, I loved Meriweather and Tanard Jackson in the draft. Both have turned out to be disappointments in my eyes -- Meriweather with his play and Tanard with his off field issues.

No one is perfect and I'm not saying BB should be perfect. I just think the way he has gone about addressing the major needs of this team should be more harshly criticized. A lot of the IN BB WE TRUST gets thrown around on this board, and he's always considered a master of the draft, but his picks have been underwhelming over the last 5 years aside from the 2010 draft. He's great at accumulating picks, but his actually selections have been pretty pedestrian.

We've needed an OLB since 2008. The only guys he's drafted in the top 3 rounds have been Cunningham and Crable. We've needed a RDE since 2009. We've tried to plug that hole with JAG's like Brace, Damione Lewis, Gerard Warren, Deaderick, Pryor, etc. We've spent numerous picks on CB trying to replace Asante after he left prior the 2008 season.