Draft "hit rate" on first-round picks

[FredFromDartmouth]

Interesting article about how tricky some positions are to to draft, especially WRs and QBs.

In reading this article, it is clear that the best pick for the Patriots would be center with a hit rate of 92%. That would go over well, eh?

The NFL Draft "hit rate" on first-round quarterbacks and wide receivers is ... interesting

ESPN looked at first-round picks at every position between 2000-19 to determine a success rate -- or hit rate -- at each position to get an idea of what the surest and riskiest bets are for teams looking to nail their top pick.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[TheRainMaker]

I took a quick peak and the number for QB's and it's way lower than 26.

 

[BTTA]

Would love to see the serious injury stats in parallel. It might help explain the low skill position ratings.

I'd suggest that "hit" for QB needs to be defined as more than a second contract. It needs to include starter status and among the League leaders in whatever statistic floats your boat. Eli Manning, Bortles, Dalton, Smith, etc. will cause a team to build around them on the hope that they take a performance leap forward, and leave a team stuck in mediocrity for that entire duration. And those guys are increasingly getting huge second contracts, also chewing up cap money. It is a real quagmire.

 

[Rob0729]

I think there is a percentage of players, especially QBs, who fail in large part because of the teams drafting them and being put in bad situations and not developed correctly. I think most of the failures in the 2021 QB class fit in that situation to a bit. Not saying any of them would be good if they went somewhere else, but most of them went to crap situations where they were poorly developed.

 

[Sciz]

I know people want things to be simple, but this stat has removed all nuance to the point where it just doesn’t make sense anymore.

 

[reflexblue]

Ive been thinking about this for months, off the top of my head a lot of high first rnd QBs are busts. Ive entertained the thought thta it would be better to trade down and build up the o-line and take qb later. I don't mean take a qb in rnd two or three, but trading down a few slots and taking a jj mccarthy if he still there.

 

[signbabybrady]

We can't afford to miss so we should take Jackson Powers-Johnson

 

[Ross12]

I know people want things to be simple, but this stat has removed all nuance to the point where it just doesn’t make sense anymore.

Yeah I don't think "signing a second contract with the team that drafted them" is really significant... Like, the value of that contract and the reasons that they were retained can vary wildly. Based on such a metric, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones were all equal "hits".

It also fails to account for players who were excellent but the team who drafted him was cap-strapped and could not meet their contract demands, so the player tested the market and signed a big contract elsewhere. Such a player is considered a "miss" according to this measurement. Let's say Brandon Aiyuk gets traded to NE this week and signs an extension with the Pats - is he a "first round miss"?

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

I know people want things to be simple, but this stat has removed all nuance to the point where it just doesn’t make sense anymore.

For example, you'd want to normalize the "hit rate" by position. Maybe centers get to that second contract much more often than other positions in general. Center and guard are not considered "premium" positions, so the FA competition isn't as fierce. Replacements can be had deeper in the draft. And there are other, far better ways to measure success, from the simple (starts) to advanced (all those fancy stats the kids use nowadays).

 

[Sciz]

Yeah I don't think "signing a second contract with the team that drafted them" is really significant... Like, the value of that contract and the reasons that they were retained can vary wildly. Based on such a metric, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones were all equal "hits".

It also fails to account for players who were excellent but the team who drafted him was cap-strapped and could not meet their contract demands, so the player tested the market and signed a big contract elsewhere. Such a player is considered a "miss" according to this measurement. Let's say Brandon Aiyuk gets traded to NE this week and signs an extension with the Pats - is he a "first round miss"?

My favorite example is Todd Gurley, who signed an extension after three seasons but was released two years later, when his rookie contract would have expired anyway. The end result is that it was effectively a $22.5M, 0 year extension.

 

[Ross12]

My favorite example is Todd Gurley, who signed an extension after three seasons but was released two years later, when his rookie contract would have expired anyway. The end result is that it was effectively a $22.5M, 0 year extension.

What a hit!