Combine Talk: Defensive Backs

[DW Toys]

I'd be fine with either guy at 23, though I think I'd prefer Delmas there. What would be ideal is if the Patriots could move Cassel for the #20 and maybe a swap of second rounders, that the Patriots could grab a tackle at 20 and go after someone like Barwin in the high second rather than going for him at 23.

Think Delmas lasts till round two, Sean Smith is the guy. Versatility and speed. If the track is off a half of tenth like is suspected, that is a Cromartie type corner.
DW Toys

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

Why is it when a mid-round talent diplays athleticism everyone says "Wow! He just made some cash. He is now a first rounder?" But when a first round talent dispays a lack of athleticism people have a problem saying he is now a mid-round guy. They say "Should we throw out three years of game film just because he isn't as fast as we thought?"

The game film was there with both guys but one guy had more star power and hype. The hype, somehow, prevents us from saying a guy is not a full time starter in the league. If some guys raise their stock into the first from the third, it only makes sense for others to lower their stock from first to third.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

Think Delmas lasts till round two, Sean Smith is the guy. Versatility and speed. If the track is off a half of tenth like is suspected, that is a Cromartie type corner.
DW Toys

I'm thinking closer to a full tenth. Those safeties were really fast. That would put several corners into the 4.30-4.40 range like was thought pre-combine.

 

[dryheat44]

I'm thinking closer to a full tenth. Those safeties were really fast. That would put several corners into the 4.30-4.40 range like was thought pre-combine.

Copied from Football Outsiders, regarding complaints of a slow track:

If that's the case, well, the numbers sure don't show it. The average 40 time for this year's running backs was 4.58; the average 40 time for running backs from 1999-2008 was 4.57. At wide receiver, the average 40-yard dash this year was 4.51, actually three-hundredths of a second faster than the 1999-2008 average of 4.54. If the new field's slowing guys down, it's not showing up in their numbers.

 

[patchick]

I'm thinking closer to a full tenth. Those safeties were really fast. That would put several corners into the 4.30-4.40 range like was thought pre-combine.

But...the safeties and corners all run as a combined "db" group. It's one thing to suggest that the staff doing the timing for the receiver group was different from the dbs, but it wouldn't make sense to see a difference between cb and safety.

 

[mayoclinic]

Copied from Football Outsiders, regarding complaints of a slow track:

If that's the case, well, the numbers sure don't show it. The average 40 time for this year's running backs was 4.58; the average 40 time for running backs from 1999-2008 was 4.57. At wide receiver, the average 40-yard dash this year was 4.51, actually three-hundredths of a second faster than the 1999-2008 average of 4.54. If the new field's slowing guys down, it's not showing up in their numbers.

What confuses me about the slow track theory is how the safeties did compared to the CBs. The safeties posted very respectable numbers - 4.41 for Chris Clemons, 4.46 for David Bruton, 4.47 for Patrick Chung (and Sean Smith if you count him as a S), 4.49 for Louis Delmas, 4.53 for William Moore. You would think the CBs would run faster than the safeties, but no CB posted an official time of 4.41 for Don Carey, and many of the CBs were slower than the safeties running on the same track at the same time. I also don't understand the "official" times, as I saw Vontae Davis run 4.43 twice but he corrected to 4.49. Patrick Chung running faster than Vontae Davis makes no sense to me.

 

[bakes781]

Chip Vaughn's unofficial time went from 4.40 to an official time of 4.50

WTF?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Chip Vaughn's unofficial time went from 4.40 to an official time of 4.50

WTF?

This is why the scouts in the stands are all using their own watches.

 

[patchick]

Patrick Chung running faster than Vontae Davis makes no sense to me.

That's what's so disturbing about this year's times. I'm fine with only comparing within-year rather than across years, but the times just don't seem to mesh with the players' past performance -- or even with what my eyes told me watching them. Rashad Johnson shouldn't be running faster than Coye Francies.

 

[cstjohn17]

That's what's so disturbing about this year's times. I'm fine with only comparing within-year rather than across years, but the times just don't seem to mesh with the players' past performance -- or even with what my eyes told me watching them. Rashad Johnson shouldn't be running faster than Coye Francies.

Clearly the edge goes to this years WRs, I can't imagine any of the top CBs trying to cover the top 3 or 4 wideouts 1:1...

I am torn, clearly we need an improved secondary and have virtually no depth as Safety but at the same time it doesn't matter who is in the secondary if there is no pass rush.

I guess I am still old school but I am leaning towards front seven in round 1...

 

[VJCPatriot]

Clearly the edge goes to this years WRs, I can't imagine any of the top CBs trying to cover the top 3 or 4 wideouts 1:1...

I am torn, clearly we need an improved secondary and have virtually no depth as Safety but at the same time it doesn't matter who is in the secondary if there is no pass rush.

I guess I am still old school but I am leaning towards front seven in round 1...

Barwin, Sintim, Maybin, and English are possibilities for front 7 guys. Yeah I'm focusing on the passrushers in the 1st. If the Pats want a backup DT they can go for Brace in the 2nd or 3rd.

 

[mayoclinic]

That's what's so disturbing about this year's times. I'm fine with only comparing within-year rather than across years, but the times just don't seem to mesh with the players' past performance -- or even with what my eyes told me watching them. Rashad Johnson shouldn't be running faster than Coye Francies.

Vontae Davis clearly looked faster than Patrick Chung. He times faster at the time (4.43 to 4.51 based on the announced times). But the official time is Chung at 4.47 and Davis at 4.49. Doesn't make any sense to me. That's just one comparison - there are at least a dozen cases where the times don't seem to mesh with what I saw or with past performances.

I just don't know what to make of these times at all. If there is any discrepancy between the pro day and combine times, I will probably tend to lean towards the pro day based on my current confusion.

 

[Seneschal2]

I just don't know what to make of these times at all. If there is any discrepancy between the pro day and combine times, I will probably tend to lean towards the pro day based on my current confusion.

I'm already leaning that way now.

 

[DaBruinz]

Vontae Davis clearly looked faster than Patrick Chung. He times faster at the time (4.43 to 4.51 based on the announced times). But the official time is Chung at 4.47 and Davis at 4.49. Doesn't make any sense to me. That's just one comparison - there are at least a dozen cases where the times don't seem to mesh with what I saw or with past performances.

I just don't know what to make of these times at all. If there is any discrepancy between the pro day and combine times, I will probably tend to lean towards the pro day based on my current confusion.

It makes PLENTY of sense when you take into consideration that the humans are the ones who are hitting the stop and they could easily be the ones calling out the faster numbers. Whereas the electronics, though started by a human, are STOPPED by electronics. They will be more accurate.

There was an article about how these sub 4.4 times were mostly BS because that would make most of those guys faster than world class sprinters like Usein Bolt. And we all know that these guys aren't.

They really should just take the guys to a track, line them up 8 abreast, and have them do a 40 yard dash that way. The times used for the Olympics are significantly more accurate than what the NFL is doing.

 

[upstater1]

It makes PLENTY of sense when you take into consideration that the humans are the ones who are hitting the stop and they could easily be the ones calling out the faster numbers. Whereas the electronics, though started by a human, are STOPPED by electronics. They will be more accurate.

There was an article about how these sub 4.4 times were mostly BS because that would make most of those guys faster than world class sprinters like Usein Bolt. And we all know that these guys aren't.

They really should just take the guys to a track, line them up 8 abreast, and have them do a 40 yard dash that way. The times used for the Olympics are significantly more accurate than what the NFL is doing.

I totally agree that the hand timed times are suspect. They are too fast. But, since that's how the scouts used to time things in the past, I'm thinking they need to do that now as well in order to make comparisons.

I just disagree with one thing. You wrote that the combine times have to be more accurate because they only have a human at one end. I think that a human at one end can make things even more inaccurate than humans at both ends of the run, if that human at one end sucks at starting a stop watch.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

Did anyone see Sharrod Martin perform the positional drills? I'm curious because he had the fastest 20yd shuttle, second fastest 3 cone(6.59 vs 6.60) and fourth fastest 60yd shuttle. A short shuttle of 3.96 is pretty rediculous! He is very quick. I'm wondering how smooth looked.

 

[DaBruinz]

I totally agree that the hand timed times are suspect. They are too fast. But, since that's how the scouts used to time things in the past, I'm thinking they need to do that now as well in order to make comparisons.

I just disagree with one thing. You wrote that the combine times have to be more accurate because they only have a human at one end. I think that a human at one end can make things even more inaccurate than humans at both ends of the run, if that human at one end sucks at starting a stop watch.

He's not starting a stop watch. He's hitting a button that starts an automatic timer. People sitting 200 ft away aren't going to be accurate because they don't know when he really crosses the start line and they don't know when the runner really crosses the finish line. They are guess much more.

As I said, the Combine needs to just take the guys to a track and use the same system they use in the Olympics for measuring times. It would be far more accurate.

Heck, if they wanted to run on the grass still, the idea of sensors places on the hips that trigger on the start and on the end is much better than what they do now.

 

[DaBruinz]

Did Sean Smith participate in the drills at the combine? What about the other runs like the shuttles and 3 cone?

If he did, how did he look?

 

[cstjohn17]

I am wrong but does it seem like the class of CBs / Safeties is weak?
NFL Draft History: Full Draft - by Position

 

[mayoclinic]

Did Sean Smith participate in the drills at the combine? What about the other runs like the shuttles and 3 cone?

If he did, how did he look?

DaBruinz, I haven't been able to find any 3-cone or shuttle data on Sean Smith, so I presume he didn't run. This, however, from Todd McShay at ESPNInsider:

"Another big reason for the disappointment was the poor showing from top prospect Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio State). One of the scouts we spoke with clocked Jenkins' two 40-yard dashes at 4.55 and 4.56. That should translate to official times in the low 4.6 range. That's not top-10 cornerback material, folks. Even worse was the lack of fluidity he showed during drills, in which he struggled to open his hips and change directions smoothly. He struggled so much that we now feel safety is a better fit for him.

Utah's Sean Smith, on the other hand, posted a similar 40 time (an unofficial 4.46) but looked far more comfortable flipping his hips in space. Add in his rare size (6-foot-3½, 214 pounds, 34.5-inch arms), and Smith leaves Indianapolis as the fastest-rising corner prospect in the draft.

Smith's exceptional upside is intriguing, and he could go late in the first round. However, it's important not to lose perspective here. While we believe he's a better fit at safety than corner, we still think Jenkins will be the first defensive back off the board in 2009. Why? He is a big hitter who can stuff the run and make big plays in coverage when he keeps the ball in front of him. Besides, Ohio State lined Jenkins up at safety a fair amount of the time, and he reminds us of Arizona's 2005 first-round pick, Antrel Rolle, who has fared better at safety than he has at corner in the NFL. As a result, we think Jenkins will come off the board in the middle of the first round. Meanwhile, Smith doesn't look as fluid on film as he did in shorts Tuesday, so teams aren't going to just slide him ahead of Jenkins."

The full link is:

Todd McShay: Malcoln Jenkins struggles, but he'll still be first DB off the board - ESPN

I'd obviously like to see more, but I feel more and more comfortable with Sean Smith at 23. The fact is, if he had terrific shuttle and 3-cone numbers on record to convince people that he could play CB, he probably wouldn't last till 23 anyways. I'm comfortable that between CB and FS we can get good value out of him.

I more and more like the idea of Sean Smith at 23 and Connor Barwin at either 33 or 34 from Detroit or KC as part of a Cassel trade.