Big $$ doesn’t = big results - 2013 free agent WR’s at midseason

[Deus Irae]

I was pointing out that of all the free agent signing at the wide receiver position during the 2013 offseason Julian Edelman dollar for dollar was the best at midseason, in addition to that I was pointing that big name receivers that many of us lobbied for during the offseason have only proven Belichick correct in not spending big on them.

1.) You didn't list all the FA signings, and you only focused on one portion of one season.

2.) Some of the FA signings you listed are players returning to their own teams, including Edelman.

3.) You left out too much necessary data.


Edelman's a WR3-WR5 type who's been force fed the ball on a couple of occasions due to injury in the receiving corps, and that's inflated his numbers. His biggest receiving day (13 receptions) came in a game where the Patriots managed only 13 points, and Edelman averaged only 6 ypc. It's fine to call him a 'bargain', and all, but he is what he is, as is reflected in his production the past 4 games:

14 catches (3.5 per game)
143 yards (35.75 YPG)

I don’t know what obvious reasons you’re referring to for why they’re struggling? I don’t know that I said any were struggling but none of the top paid receivers (Bowe, Jennings, Wallace, Amendola and Welker) with the exception of Welker have lived up to contracts they received in the offseason.

I'm not going to go over every WR situation, but here are a couple of examples...

Example:

Bowe is now in a different offense. He's got a QB who's extremely risk averse, and who favors throwing to his TEs and RBs. Bowe, being a receiver who relies on body positioning far more than getting separation, is precisely the sort of WR who'd be impacted by a transition like the one that K.C.'s offense is currently going through, as we saw last season. I'm not a Bowe fan, and I think he was overpaid, but context is still important.

Example: Wallace is a deep threat, not a short-field receiver. The Dolphins signed Wallace but then failed at the OT positions, meaning Tannehill has less time to look downfield, and it's taken time for the offense to incorporate Wallace. Also, claiming that Wallace is a bust ignores the impact he has on a defense. Just his being out there forces teams to change how they play defense. Not only that, but Wallace's numbers are actually ahead of last year's pace for him, depite all the weeping and gnashing of teeth. His numbers are also clearly showing improvement:

Games 1-4: 15 receptions for 176 yards (11.7 ypc)

Games 5-8: 21 receptions for 302 yards (14.4 ypc)


Lastly, just to point it out, You're looking at Wallace and Hartline (and omitting Gibson), 3 FA WR signings by the Dolphins, and ignoring the way they are/are not playing off of one another. Gibson, who just got hurt and went on IR, was another WR who's numbers were ahead of his numbers from last year. So, despite a terrible offensive line and a young QB who's struggling with reads, two of the 3 WR FA signings for the Dolphins are actually on pace to better last year's production, and the 3rd (Hartline) is on pace for about the same number of receptions, but with a lower YPC.



There's nothing wrong with praising Edelman for his season start, but the rest of the O.P. is a swing and a miss, and made no sense being in the O.P., IMO.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I think it's also worth looking at FAs who stay with their own team vs. switch to other teams. I think they're very different evaluations because the coaching staff and FO usually have a good idea of what that player is about, how they fit into the system, et cetera, and can then decide if they really are worth keeping or not.

When looking at that list, most of the players having success are the ones that stayed with their teams. The coaches knew them, thought they fit the system, and they were generally known quantities. It's a bit more difficult to project how other players might fit within a system.

 

[supafly]

Bowe is now in a different offense. He's got a QB who's extremely risk averse, and who favors throwing to his TEs and RBs. Bowe, being a receiver who relies on body positioning far more than getting separation, is precisely the sort of WR who'd be impacted by a transition like the one that K.C.'s offense is currently going through, as we saw last season. I'm not a Bowe fan, and I think he was overpaid, but context is still important.

Kind of bad luck for KC having signed Dwayne Bowe to such an enormous contract of 5/56, then they go and trade for a game manager in Smith (not claiming he's not effective, b/c he is) who doesn't even attempt throws of more than 7-10 yds downfield.

Bowe has been an enormous waste of money so far, and that's putting it mildly. One would think that Bowe would be an excellent candidate to be traded in the offseason. Paying a WR that kind of money is pointless if you aren't going to use him. God help that offense if something happens to Jamaal Charles, who had about 40-45% of their total offensive production on the year as of a week ago.

I'm not questioning your post or overall point, particularly since I agree with a lot of it, just commenting on Dwayne Bowe specifically. I'm not so sure they'd have retained him had they known that they were going to bring in Alex Smith a couple of months later.

 

[supafly]

I think that Belichick is very cautious when even contemplating most of the free agent WR's every year, due to several reasons:



--Unknown fit in our system being a very important reason, and likely THE most important reason. There's just too much of the unknown to go out and throw around a ton of money (10 million plus for the top notch free agents) on someone who may/may not take a long time to pick up our system, or even completely fail altogether. We've seen this before on some of the high picks and mid-level costing players such as Ochocinco.

--The fact that he values and approves of our QB position so much that it seems like he feels like Brady can help to compensate some of the weaknesses at WR. In other words, Brady can help to get the best out of even the lowest level WR's, so it makes more sense to try our hand at draft picks and low/mid level free agents. In this specific year of 2013, I believe that too much has been asked of Brady, and that they could've made things easier for him by retaining a certain slot receiver and/or going after another 6-7 million dollar receiver. However, I am not a successful cap master such as Bill Belichick, so my opinion means absolutely nothing. I do get frustrated knowing that they knew of Hernandez's situation + Gronk's injury at the end of June and did not feel it necessary to bring anyone else in with plenty of time to get acclimated to our system. Just my 2 cents though.

--WR just seems to be one of those positions where he feels that the compensation is generally too much across the league, especially with a somewhat expensive QB. Belichick has referred to the "12-15% rule," meaning that you cannot generally pay a franchise QB more than 12-15% of the overall salary cap. It's difficult to try and pay a franchise QB (yes, even at a hometown discount with cap hits of 14 million or so) AND a top level WR 10 million + at the same time. The only successful teams who have paid top level pacts to both QB/WR so far have been maybe Atlanta with Matt Ryan and Roddy White, or possibly Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson--and neither one of them have reached any level of real success on a consistent basis, meaning deep playoff runs...ever.




It sure would be nice to see one of the so-called "failures" of Greg Jennings or Dwayne Bowe traded in the offseason with a nice restructuring, but the odds of that are probably slim and none. There will be guys such as James Jones, Emmanuel Sanders, etc who may be "reasonably priced" options next spring, although some of that will depend on how much our rookie WR's continue to develop/slide (Thompkins, Dobson, Boyce).

 

[DaBruinz]

As I noted, I'm not getting the point of the thread, for the reasons given. It's pretty simple really. When the receivers in front of players get hurt, those players tend to see their numbers (or at least opportunities) increase. I think we can all wrap our heads around that. It's the rest that I'm questioning. The O.P. ignores so many variables that it's basically worthless.

Injuries
QB play
OL issues
etc...

Is there a particular reason you're defending the second part to the O.P.?

Of course you don't get the point of the thread. That's because the point is so blatantly obvious and you insist on being so friggin arrogant.

What is worthless is your posting in this thread. Injuries actually support his line of thinking. But your arrogance doesn't allow you to see it.

The whole premise of the thread is actually something that has regularly been brought up when talking about Free Agent WRs. That, more often than not, they don't pan out.

 

[DaBruinz]

1.) You didn't list all the FA signings, and you only focused on one portion of one season.

And you have failed to mention even one other "big ticket" free agent signing.

2.) Some of the FA signings you listed are players returning to their own teams, including Edelman.

So what? They were still free agents. Other teams had the chance to sign them and either didn't or couldn't. 7

3.) You left out too much necessary data.

Says you. But, that doesn't make you right. Nor have you actually offered up actual situations.. Oh wait.. You tried to do that in the rest of your post, but you failed miserably there. The O-line issues in Miami are no worse than the ones in New England. Nor are they worse than the ones in Denver. So, for you to say that it some how makes the O.P. groundless shows only ignorance on your part.


BTW, you "opinion" and $5 will get you a Grande Coffee at Starbucks..