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Assessing BB's drafting


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To use BB words- I don't worry about the other 31 teams, just the Pats.

So let's not compare ourselves with other teams, but how to improve NE.

If there are teams that are constantly drafting OLBs & WRs successfully, let's see how they do it & copy them. If it means paying someone elses scouts to secure their services do it. If they have coaches that can develop players better than we can, pay them to come here or learn how they do it. If you keep doing something that doesn't work, and you don't change it, how can you expect the outcome to be different.

There are many retired WRs & OLBs that have a wealth of knowledge but they would never put in the hours an NFL coach would, so why not hire some of them partime. If a player isn't getting it, supply the retiree with tapes to study at home and spend maybe a week or two with the player at the stadium or at another spot in the offseason.

On those years when BB isn't thrilled with what he sees in the 5th,6th or 7th rds. trade down so you have 6-10 picks in rd. 7. Take what you may like in the seventh, by that I mean players that were going to be UDFAs. Almost every year there are O-linemen & RBs that are starters or pretty good backups. This way we don't have to fight with the other 31 teams to get them. I'm sure you all have ideas of your own. I'd love to hear them.
 
Belichick's aggressive trading approach makes it almost impossible to assess an individual draft. For instance, do you discount Solder in assessing 2011 because he cost 1 year of Seymour, or delay any assessment of the draft at all because so much value was transferred to 2012?

Or consider the wacky 2007 draft class. Pick-for-player trades brought Wes Welker, Randy Moss and Doug Gabriel, and the later Moss trade turned into Ryan Mallett. Pick-for-future-pick trades turned into Jerod Mayo, Shawn Crable, 3/4 of Matthew Slater and 2/3 of Ron Brace. So while not one player the Pats drafted in 2007 remains on their roster, you could say that 5 players acquired via 2007 draft capital are still around -- including 2 perennial pro-bowlers.

How do you grade that draft vis a vis other teams when NO other team does this kind of stuff? (Outside Foxboro, trading draft capital into the future is virtually unknown.)

That's why I think the best way to evaluate the Pats' drafting is looking at their annual "organic" draft position and the total of young talent they've acquired. And by that measure, BB looks very good indeed.
 
Belichick's aggressive trading approach makes it almost impossible to assess an individual draft. For instance, do you discount Solder in assessing 2011 because he cost 1 year of Seymour, or delay any assessment of the draft at all because so much value was transferred to 2012?

Or consider the wacky 2007 draft class. Pick-for-player trades brought Wes Welker, Randy Moss and Doug Gabriel, and the later Moss trade turned into Ryan Mallett. Pick-for-future-pick trades turned into Jerod Mayo, Shawn Crable, 3/4 of Matthew Slater and 2/3 of Ron Brace. So while not one player the Pats drafted in 2007 remains on their roster, you could say that 5 players acquired via 2007 draft capital are still around -- including 2 perennial pro-bowlers.

How do you grade that draft vis a vis other teams when NO other team does this kind of stuff? (Outside Foxboro, trading draft capital into the future is virtually unknown.)

That's why I think the best way to evaluate the Pats' drafting is looking at their annual "organic" draft position and the total of young talent they've acquired. And by that measure, BB looks very good indeed.

I think the criticism has been talent selection. This can be evaluated by comparing the success of Belichick's players against players selected in the same positionby other teams.
 
I think the criticism has been talent selection. This can be evaluated by comparing the success of Belichick's players against players selected in the same positionby other teams.

What is your objective measure of talent? Can you compare your measure to other teams' talent selection?
 
What is your objective measure of talent? Can you compare your measure to other teams' talent selection?

Makes a roster, games played, starts, that sort of thing.
 
In the "What have you done for me lately" draft picks
BB is aces!
I think he was led astray in the past by Piolli with some bad advice.:gossip:
Hmm... No Piolli, better drafts! Go figure
 
our cast offs get picked up....must mean something.
 
In the "What have you done for me lately" draft picks
BB is aces!
I think he was led astray in the past by Piolli with some bad advice.:gossip:
Hmm... No Piolli, better drafts! Go figure

Pioli had an excellent draft last year, and the early returns on the Chiefs draft this year are very promising. Pioli wasn't the problem. Whether the pair had begun getting stale together, I obviously cannot say.
 
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I didn't bother reading once you included Meriweather and Maroney there. The Pats got 4 years out of Meriweather and 3 out of Maroney... Claiming that drafting them set the Patriots back is just stupid.

What you also totally discount is that 2007 was a horrible draft for the entire league, for all intents and purposes. So to act like only the Patriots were affected is just sillyness.

What people like yourself fail to acknowledge is that the Patriots have not had a losing season under Belichick despite those "poor" drafts. In fact, just 2 years after the "poor" 2008 draft the Pats went 14-2.

2006 -
Maroney - provided 3 slightly above average years in 4 for the Pats
Jackson - Bust
Thomas - Provided 2 seasons as the #2/#3 TE for the Pats. Has been a solid #2 for New Orleans.
Mills - Pats tried to stash him on the PS, but he was picked up by Minnesota as an F.U. to Belichick.
Gostkowski - Been a top 5 kicker in the league.
O'Callaghan - Basically a JAG. Concussions curtailed his stay with the Pats.
Mincey - didn't take TC seriously and "thought he'd be given a year to learn the system".
Stevenson - below average center..
LeKevin Smith - Was with the Pats for 3 years, 2 on the PS..
Willie Andrews - Spent 2 years as one of the top Gunners in the league.. His career was derailed by drugs, domestic abuse, and a gun charge..

2007 - Meriweather - 4 years with the team
The rest - nothing major
* - This draft provided Moss who gave them 3 good/great years and Welker who has also provided the Pats with 4 good/great years

2008 -
Mayo - Really came into his own last year. He picked up a lot of slack from the injury depleted Defensive Line.
Wheatley - got derailed by injuring his left wrist and never was the same.
Crable - Injured too much
O'Connell - Attitude. A McDaniels binky???
Wilhite - 3 solid years.
Slater - The guy everyone has loved to hate on. He's been a fixture on special teams and seems to have improved his skills somewhat as potentially a deep threat receiver..
Ruud - Injured and released..

The drafts weren't nearly as bad as people make them out to have been.. Were they great? Nope.

Failing to admit that Maroney and Meriweather were poor draft choices just makes you seem unobjective and biased -- and "stupid" as well. First round picks are supposed to become full time starters and hopefully develop into some of the better players on your roster. Almost every Patriots fans, even the ones on the "take" like Mike Reiss, admit that 2006-2008 set this team back due to poor drafts.

Just because Maroney and Meriweather "gave us 3 years" doesn't mean anything if those years were not good. Ron Brace has also given us three years -- three years of nothing.

Maroney never turned into the Corey Dillion replacement that he was supposed to be. He could never stay healthy and even when he was healthy, he wasn't nearly consistent or good enough. A first round pick at RB is supposed to be your bell-cow back -- he's not supposed to challenged and beaten out by the likes of old guys on their last legs (Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris) or UDFA's (BJGE and Woodhead). The fact that Maroney, a first round pick, could not out-perform the likes of Taylor, Morris, Faulk, and BJGE just shows how bad of a pick he was. He was inactive for the season opener, so he was behind all of those guys on the depth chart.

Just because Meriweather was a starter for most of the year in both 09 and 10, doesn't mean he was a good pick. He never lived up to his draft status and was a large part of the blow coverages/porous play at times by the secondary in 2009 and 2010. He never developed into the playmaking safety that we needed as Rodney's career was winding down. He was more a part of the problem than the solution. I don't know how you can deny that -- he was benched in both 2009 and 2010 at different points in time in favor of guys like James Sanders and McGowan. Even after James Sanders was cut this summer, Meriweather could not even beat out Josh Barrett, Serigo Brown, and James Ihedigbo for a roster spot.

You can slice every draft pick anyway you want it and find some sort of excuse for why the player didn't pan out. You can say that Wheatley's injury ruined his career, but he had injury problems at Colorado. So maybe your beloved Pats didn't put enough stock in him being injury prone in college. You can blame injuries for the bust of Shawn Crable, but one of the big knocks on him coming out of school was that he didn't have an NFL body that could hold up -- too skinny, not a big enough trunk/base, can't hold up in the NFL.

But the bottom line is that, whatever reason you want to claim that a guy failed, 2006-2008 were poor drafts and 2009 was okay but not as good as we originally thought it might be. This thread is assessing BB's drafting, not the trades he made to get Welker and Moss. It's funny how Moss and Welker are always included in the 2007 draft, but when the Jets trade picks for Cromartie, Jenkins, or Holmes and get good seasons out of them, it's not included because they were too "short term" or they "refuse to build through the draft the right way like the Pats."

There is no doubt that these drafts set this team back. If Terrence Wheatley turns into a starting CB, maybe Bill doesn't have to spend another pick at CB on Butler and another on McCourty. Maybe he can go after a DE or an OLB and strengthen the front 7. If Bill takes David Harris or Jon Beason instead of Meriweather, maybe your linebacking corps doesn't have Gary Guyton playing major snaps for 2+ years.

Failing to admit that the 06-08 drafts were downright pitiful is failing to deal with reality.
 
re: rating McCourty, check out Mike Lombardi's positional rankings:

NFL.com news: Blue chips and red chips: Defensive position rankings

He rates McCourty as a blue-chip (top 5 in the NFL) corner already. Lombardi isn't just some random columnist, he was an NFL executive for years who still has connections in the league. Probably most tellingly, he was the Director of Player Personnel for the Browns when Belichick was the coach there.

Shouldn't be taken as gospel, obviously, but he's one of the most qualified objective opinions that we're privy to.
 
Here's my simple take of Belichick's drafting.

The NFL draft is a huge crapshoot for every team. Some years you get lucky with a bunch, other years you can completely strike out.

What sets Belichick apart is not his skill at drafting, or in free agency - but his skill in knowing who to let go.

It's an important skill. Teams like the Jets hold onto a player like Gholsten out of ego and pride of having drafted him so high.

Belichick doesn't let where he drafted a guy enter the picture. He'll keep an undrafted free agent and cut a 1st round former Pro Bowler if he thinks it's in the best interest of the team.

Belichick wouldn't think twice about letting what people say about his drafting skills alter his roster decisions. Not every coach or GM can say the same thing - and they hurt their team in the process.
 
It is amazing that Floyd Reese appears to have gone unmentioned in this discussion.

Bill recognized his prior drafts/personnel moves might have been better and hired Floyd Reese, who should have gotten the KC job over Pioli. Reese has forgotten more about football in one day than any poster on this Board knows and has been, in part, a mentor to Caserio. Reese is a large part of why Patriot personnel is now so highly regarded.

Part of what makes Bill Belichick special is he understands his own shortcomings and doesn't buy into the hype about him. When Pioli left he promoted Caserio and hired Reese because Caserio and Belichik needed Reese. The Pats personnel department is now better than when Pioli was there.
 
Failing to admit that Maroney and Meriweather were poor draft choices just makes you seem unobjective and biased -- and "stupid" as well. First round picks are supposed to become full time starters and hopefully develop into some of the better players on your roster. Almost every Patriots fans, even the ones on the "take" like Mike Reiss, admit that 2006-2008 set this team back due to poor drafts.

Just because Maroney and Meriweather "gave us 3 years" doesn't mean anything if those years were not good. Ron Brace has also given us three years -- three years of nothing.

Maroney never turned into the Corey Dillion replacement that he was supposed to be. He could never stay healthy and even when he was healthy, he wasn't nearly consistent or good enough. A first round pick at RB is supposed to be your bell-cow back -- he's not supposed to challenged and beaten out by the likes of old guys on their last legs (Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris) or UDFA's (BJGE and Woodhead). The fact that Maroney, a first round pick, could not out-perform the likes of Taylor, Morris, Faulk, and BJGE just shows how bad of a pick he was. He was inactive for the season opener, so he was behind all of those guys on the depth chart.

Just because Meriweather was a starter for most of the year in both 09 and 10, doesn't mean he was a good pick. He never lived up to his draft status and was a large part of the blow coverages/porous play at times by the secondary in 2009 and 2010. He never developed into the playmaking safety that we needed as Rodney's career was winding down. He was more a part of the problem than the solution. I don't know how you can deny that -- he was benched in both 2009 and 2010 at different points in time in favor of guys like James Sanders and McGowan. Even after James Sanders was cut this summer, Meriweather could not even beat out Josh Barrett, Serigo Brown, and James Ihedigbo for a roster spot.

You can slice every draft pick anyway you want it and find some sort of excuse for why the player didn't pan out. You can say that Wheatley's injury ruined his career, but he had injury problems at Colorado. So maybe your beloved Pats didn't put enough stock in him being injury prone in college. You can blame injuries for the bust of Shawn Crable, but one of the big knocks on him coming out of school was that he didn't have an NFL body that could hold up -- too skinny, not a big enough trunk/base, can't hold up in the NFL.

But the bottom line is that, whatever reason you want to claim that a guy failed, 2006-2008 were poor drafts and 2009 was okay but not as good as we originally thought it might be. This thread is assessing BB's drafting, not the trades he made to get Welker and Moss. It's funny how Moss and Welker are always included in the 2007 draft, but when the Jets trade picks for Cromartie, Jenkins, or Holmes and get good seasons out of them, it's not included because they were too "short term" or they "refuse to build through the draft the right way like the Pats."

There is no doubt that these drafts set this team back. If Terrence Wheatley turns into a starting CB, maybe Bill doesn't have to spend another pick at CB on Butler and another on McCourty. Maybe he can go after a DE or an OLB and strengthen the front 7. If Bill takes David Harris or Jon Beason instead of Meriweather, maybe your linebacking corps doesn't have Gary Guyton playing major snaps for 2+ years.

Failing to admit that the 06-08 drafts were downright pitiful is failing to deal with reality.

I think the main problem is that there's no real context to the situations outlined above. Sure, we can all point out examples of Player X (Mike Wallace) being better than Player Y drafted before him (Brandon Tate), but does that make Team A (Pittsburgh) smarter than Team B (New England)?

Well we definitely whiffed on Tate. But Pittsburgh also whiffed with their 3rd-round pick, selecting Kraig Urbik 5 picks ahead of Wallace. If Pittsburgh really knew how good Wallace would be, would they risk drafting Urbik ahead of him? Of course not. But in hindsight in a vacuum, these types of statements are always made, and it doesn't really prove much of anything.

So with the understanding that any analysis of the draft will be flawed, that anyone can (and will) nit-pick at minute details while ignoring the larger picture, I've taken a look at the 2006 to 2008 drafts for several of the top franchises in the league. It's certainly not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, and we can argue points all over it, but the basic points still hold pretty true. New England has definitely done poorly. But it's not by as wide a margin as you think.

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All numbers were taken from NFL Draft History and AFL Drafts - Pro-Football-Reference.com.

While we know a lot of picks were traded in 2007, it's still surprising to find the Pats with the second-fewest picks in this comparison of top teams. What's also interesting is the average draft value of those picks (using the draft value chart as a basis).

The total starters are pretty low. We could argue back and forth on that number, especially as the stats are a bit weird here (Maroney was never a starter according to Pro Football Reference), but the basic point holds true that we didn't find enough quality guys to start.

Oddly enough, the common draft complaint of constantly trading down is that we take quantity vs. quality, yet the Pats lead the way with All Pro and Pro Bowl players.

Yes, some will say Meriweather's Pro Bowls shouldn't count and that he was a bust as a 1st rounder, but that's stupid. A guy who starts multiple seasons and gets to multiple Pro Bowls is not a bust. A 1st round bust is someone like Justin Harrell (2007 Packers).

Yes, even other top teams make mistakes at the top of the draft. For every Patsfans complaint about Shawn Crable, there's an equivalent Tony Ugoh (Colts 2nd round) or David Pittman (Ravens 3rd round) or Bruce Davis (Steelers 3rd round).

But in terms of total contributors, it's not really that far off. Yes, we're at the bottom of this chart, but these are pretty small sample sizes. For context, if one other player had become a contributor for the Pats, we would be in 4th place among the top 6 teams, just behind Green Bay and just ahead of the Eagles, hardly way behind the rest of the league.

Of course the most important thing here is wins. 39 wins for the Patriots lead the way during this period. The Colts finish with 37. Pittsburgh is 3rd with 30. These are probably the best franchises in the league, so to be within their range during the worst 3-year stretch of the BB era speaks volumes about how good we've had it.
 
I think the criticism has been talent selection. This can be evaluated by comparing the success of Belichick's players against players selected in the same positionby other teams.

I started to write a response to this, but I just realized that I'm not sure what you mean by "in the same position." Do you mean "at the same point in the draft," or "who play the same position"?
 
The 2006 and 2007 drafts were the worst in Bills history. There is only one player still on the team out of 21 that were drafted. Being a mediocre player and lasting with the team in a minimal role deosn't make you a good draft pick, if you are trying to be a SB contender.

Bill Walsh used to say if 50% of your draft picks don't make significant contributions to your team for at least 5 years you don't know how to draft.

But the Bill Walsh draft to talk about, remember and study is 1986. By trading down twice and making six trades, Walsh had 13 picks and came up with eight players of real consequence. Here they are: Larry Roberts, Steve Wallace, Tom Rathman, Tim McKyer, John Taylor, Charles Haley, Kevin ***an and Don Griffin.
 
Say whatever you want about BB's drafting.... but he's damn near re-assembled the whole team in just a couple of years.


Gronkowski
Aaron Hernendez
Sebastian Volmer
Nate Solder
Taylor Price
Julian Edelman
Ridley/Vereen


BB re-assembled the main components to offense in just 2 drafts. We're still unsure how some of them turn out, (Solder and the RBs) but everything we've seen so far looks good.
 
I would also say BB is better at letting go of players REGARDLESS of where they came from (high draft pick, Free agent, trade). He's not afraid to cut a high draft pick from a couple years ago, whereas a team like the Jets will keep a useless Joe McKnight over Danny Woodhead just because he was a high draft pick.
 
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