A strictly football strategy discussion about Buffalo

[patfanken]

Well I was listening to the podcast and there was a unanimous agreement that Red Ryan would be very aggressive in coming after Brady in Sunday's game. Well that makes a sense for a lot of reasons. First it is what his first instinct are. Second blitzing and aggressive pass rushes are always going to be more effective when you are at home, where the crowd noise makes communications that much more difficult. It always gives the defensive rush an edge, since when it's loud enough, the OLmen are slower coming off the ball. Third, this is a VERY young OL, especially in the middle, and being aggressive is more likely to create mistakes. And last, you have a great front 7 which includes the league's leading sacker, and has Marcel Darieus coming back this week.

Well not so fast. It's a good rule to ALWAYS take a second look when the first answer seems too easy. So it got me to thinking about Rex Ryan's greatest victory of his coaching career, when he came into NE and shocked a heavily favored Pats team in that 2010 playoffs. Rex completely surprised that great offense when he consistently rushed only 3 or 4 while dropping back 7 or 8. In THAT way he was able to be very physical with Welker and double Gronk and Hernandez, who were our biggest threats. In the end he played a 5 under defense to choke off our short game, with 2-3 deep. It allowed the Jets to be physical with the Pats receivers off the LOS, yet still be in zone where they weren't subject to pick plays and wind up chasing receivers with their backs turned toward the LOS.

I also recall that, while the rush didn't get to Brady much, it still got him off his spot, while the tight coverage kept him from throwing to open receivers with any kind of rhythm. IIRC, lots of time I remember Brady holding the ball for what seemed to be forever, and eventually even the 3 man rushers got to him once in a while. It was a brilliant plan, which was compounded by the fact we didn't run the ball well, and Brady kept trying to fit the ball into tight spots while ignoring open RB's. After the 2007 Superbowl loss, I think this was the most difficult and painful loss of the BB era for fans to deal with. Well at least this one.

So here we are 6 years later. Rex is in a new job. Once again he has a good defensive team with 2 good CB's, a much better DL than he had in 2010, and fast LB's. So why WOULDN'T he go against expectations, and only rush 3 or 4 men against our weakest area, and max protect against our prolific passing attack, while being physical with our receivers and once again selectively double our plethora of receivers and force Brady to hold the ball waiting for guys to come open and get to him with that 3 or 4 man rush. But more importantly NOT allow Brady to throw quickly with any rhythm. Isn't that what the Steelers did with much lesser talent, and yet still caused some problems for our offense for about half the game. THEN on those 4 or 5 occasions when you DO decide to blitz they will have much more impact than if you are doing it all game.

So for all those reasons that is why I believe we are going to see more of the same of the basic Pittsburgh strategy this week. What do YOU think?

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

Well I was listening to the podcast and there was a unanimous agreement that Red Ryan would be very aggressive in coming after Brady in Sunday's game. Well that makes a sense for a lot of reasons. First it is what his first instinct are. Second blitzing and aggressive pass rushes are always going to be more effective when you are at home, where the crowd noise makes communications that much more difficult. It always gives the defensive rush an edge, since when it's loud enough, the OLmen are slower coming off the ball. Third, this is a VERY young OL, especially in the middle, and being aggressive is more likely to create mistakes. And last, you have a great front 7 which includes the league's leading sacker, and has Marcel Darieus coming back this week.

Well not so fast. It's a good rule to ALWAYS take a second look when the first answer seems too easy. So it got me to thinking about Rex Ryan's greatest victory of his coaching career, when he came into NE and shocked a heavily favored Pats team in that 2010 playoffs. Rex completely surprised that great offense when he consistently rushed only 3 or 4 while dropping back 7 or 8. In THAT way he was able to be very physical with Welker and double Gronk and Hernandez, who were our biggest threats. In the end he played a 5 under defense to choke off our short game, with 2-3 deep. It allowed the Jets to be physical with the Pats receivers off the LOS, yet still be in zone where they weren't subject to pick plays and wind up chasing receivers with their backs turned toward the LOS.

I also recall that, while the rush didn't get to Brady much, it still got him off his spot, while the tight coverage kept him from throwing to open receivers with any kind of rhythm. IIRC, lots of time I remember Brady holding the ball for what seemed to be forever, and eventually even the 3 man rushers got to him once in a while. It was a brilliant plan, which was compounded by the fact we didn't run the ball well, and Brady kept trying to fit the ball into tight spots while ignoring open RB's. After the 2007 Superbowl loss, I think this was the most difficult and painful loss of the BB era for fans to deal with. Well at least this one.

So here we are 6 years later. Rex is in a new job. Once again he has a good defensive team with 2 good CB's, a much better DL than he had in 2010, and fast LB's. So why WOULDN'T he go against expectations, and only rush 3 or 4 men against our weakest area, and max protect against our prolific passing attack, while being physical with our receivers and once again selectively double our plethora of receivers and force Brady to hold the ball waiting for guys to come open and get to him with that 3 or 4 man rush. But more importantly NOT allow Brady to throw quickly with any rhythm. Isn't that what the Steelers did with much lesser talent, and yet still caused some problems for our offense for about half the game. THEN on those 4 or 5 occasions when you DO decide to blitz they will have much more impact than if you are doing it all game.

So for all those reasons that is why I believe we are going to see more of the same of the basic Pittsburgh strategy this week. What do YOU think?

Rex always seems to figure out our weaknesses. But rarely succeeds. The odds are in our favor. Let the beatings begin!!!

 

[oldrover]

Well I was listening to the podcast and there was a unanimous agreement that Red Ryan would be very aggressive in coming after Brady in Sunday's game. Well that makes a sense for a lot of reasons. First it is what his first instinct are. Second blitzing and aggressive pass rushes are always going to be more effective when you are at home, where the crowd noise makes communications that much more difficult. It always gives the defensive rush an edge, since when it's loud enough, the OLmen are slower coming off the ball. Third, this is a VERY young OL, especially in the middle, and being aggressive is more likely to create mistakes. And last, you have a great front 7 which includes the league's leading sacker, and has Marcel Darieus coming back this week.

Well not so fast. It's a good rule to ALWAYS take a second look when the first answer seems too easy. So it got me to thinking about Rex Ryan's greatest victory of his coaching career, when he came into NE and shocked a heavily favored Pats team in that 2010 playoffs. Rex completely surprised that great offense when he consistently rushed only 3 or 4 while dropping back 7 or 8. In THAT way he was able to be very physical with Welker and double Gronk and Hernandez, who were our biggest threats. In the end he played a 5 under defense to choke off our short game, with 2-3 deep. It allowed the Jets to be physical with the Pats receivers off the LOS, yet still be in zone where they weren't subject to pick plays and wind up chasing receivers with their backs turned toward the LOS.

I also recall that, while the rush didn't get to Brady much, it still got him off his spot, while the tight coverage kept him from throwing to open receivers with any kind of rhythm. IIRC, lots of time I remember Brady holding the ball for what seemed to be forever, and eventually even the 3 man rushers got to him once in a while. It was a brilliant plan, which was compounded by the fact we didn't run the ball well, and Brady kept trying to fit the ball into tight spots while ignoring open RB's. After the 2007 Superbowl loss, I think this was the most difficult and painful loss of the BB era for fans to deal with. Well at least this one.

So here we are 6 years later. Rex is in a new job. Once again he has a good defensive team with 2 good CB's, a much better DL than he had in 2010, and fast LB's. So why WOULDN'T he go against expectations, and only rush 3 or 4 men against our weakest area, and max protect against our prolific passing attack, while being physical with our receivers and once again selectively double our plethora of receivers and force Brady to hold the ball waiting for guys to come open and get to him with that 3 or 4 man rush. But more importantly NOT allow Brady to throw quickly with any rhythm. Isn't that what the Steelers did with much lesser talent, and yet still caused some problems for our offense for about half the game. THEN on those 4 or 5 occasions when you DO decide to blitz they will have much more impact than if you are doing it all game.

So for all those reasons that is why I believe we are going to see more of the same of the basic Pittsburgh strategy this week. What do YOU think?

I would agree, especially given Pitt's early success last week, and the 2010 game you reference. Rex wants to take away what you do best. He'd rather have Blount beat him than Brady.

I think Brady, Blount and Belichick are good with that.

 

[long distance]

Answered with more of Dolphins strategy. Run, run, run .. Gronk.

Thanks for great insight.

I really look forward to this game to see what is the real state of Pats offense. Its good that their D is the healthier part so that they can go all-in. Lawson was in for the first time last week and looked lost. Dareus is maybe coming back but first game after such injury and absence is never easy .. and this one is going to be fast and powerful. Then, with McCoy not at 100% even if they play him their offense will have difficulties staying on the field - like in Miami - and that will put their D under more pressure and give Pats a chance to slowly, methodically wear them down. Then again I expected that already @Pitt and it turned out differently.

The interesting thoughts today were about opening more of the playbook on O and D from Pats for this game. So we might see a different NE defensive approach, maybe more aggresive and versatile. And probably some new offense as well. This is not only big game for them but also for the Pats so I expect fireworks from our side before the bye.

Aside from gameplan I have a sensation the whole week already that Bills will have discipline/penalty problems. They were concentrated beyond my expectations most of the season but here I see them break. If Pats get the lead early it will be very difficult for them.

 

[Poker]

Good write up Ken. More recently that's what Denver did to the Pats in last years AFC championship game, playing nickel and getting big time to Brady without blitzing.

Pats were determined after that to not only improve the OL, but absolutely have a good running game to combat that defensive strategy, most likely with 2 TEs on the field.

That's what they have to establish and execute if Rex plays smaller guys in max pass protect.

My money would be Rex throws out an unpredictable mix of the two extremes. It will be fascinating to see how Pats O counters.

 

[Wax Frog]

Red Ryan

[/QUOTE]

 

[Canuck]

Bills: 4 man rush mixed with a few well timed blitzes. Man to man and zone coverages. On offense, be patient, mix in more pass plays. Take a few shots down field. Pats going to take away the run, so run a more diverse offense. Run a few plays that you haven't done so far.

Pats: Simple, stop the run, make Tyrod beat you with his arm.
Pats: Run the ball. Quick passes. Be patient. Take shots when available. Get Bennett more involved in pass offense.

 

[deroc5050]

Bills: 4 man rush mixed with a few well timed blitzes. Man to man and zone coverages. On offense, be patient, mix in more pass plays. Take a few shots down field. Pats going to take away the run, so run a more diverse offense. Run a few plays that you haven't done so far.

Pats: Simple, stop the run, make Tyrod beat you with his arm.
Pats: Run the ball. Quick passes. Be patient. Take shots when available. Get Bennett more involved in pass offense.

Bennet will definitely be more involved if he is healthy. I think he only played like 35 snaps last game.

 

[Tony2046]

I think you nailed it Ken. Add in a few blitz packages etc.... blah blah

But the thing is the pass rush. How long can Buffalo sustain it? They wear down over the course of the game.

This game is over by the beginning of the 4th Qtr would be my guess.

 

[Nikolai]

I suspect the run game is going to be a big factor early; running out of 2 TE sets, forcing the Bills to keep that nickel defense, but then running outside the tackles (which seems to be Blount's strength). Once the run game is established, I'd imagine we're going to see play action and probably more big plays to Gronk and/or Bennett.

 

[Ring 6]

I expect a number of big plays in the passing game and Blount to rip off a couple nice runs too. Ryan will probably try to be aggressive and will pay heavily for it.

 

[patfanken]

I think you nailed it Ken. Add in a few blitz packages etc.... blah blah

But the thing is the pass rush. How long can Buffalo sustain it? They wear down over the course of the game.

This game is over by the beginning of the 4th Qtr would be my guess.

That is why a possible adjustment to go to if this is what Buffalo does is go to a hurry up offense. Granted that is difficult to do in a noisy stadium, but it WOULD slow the Pass rush and make it difficult for Bills to line up and recognize their responsibilities.

The Pats are excellent in running a hurry up, because they have the ability to quickly make substitutions and formation changes. Most teams run the hurry up with the same personnel and from just one or two predictable formations. I'm always surprised to see how sparingly we use it, and how successful it usually is, because Brady is your trigger man

 

[Tony2046]

That is why a possible adjustment to go to if this is what Buffalo does is go to a hurry up offense. Granted that is difficult to do in a noisy stadium, but it WOULD slow the Pass rush and make it difficult for Bills to line up and recognize their responsibilities.

The Pats are excellent in running a hurry up, because they have the ability to quickly make substitutions and formation changes. Most teams run the hurry up with the same personnel and from just one or two predictable formations. I'm always surprised to see how sparingly we use it, and how successful it usually is, because Brady is your trigger man

They got a TD off the Hurry up in Pittsburgh.... right? At the end of the first half.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Bills run defense has been bad all around but especially Hughes. Dareus should help but their a bottom 10 unit. Also their cbs have been bad this year and playing very loose. Most of the time 10 yards off.

This is a very thin team. Anyone they lose is a big lose. Especially at LB, S.

Use White to stretch them out east/west and run Blount off tackle/between tackle. Hogan, Gronk and Bennett should have a day.

Please I hope we see some blitzes or at least some stunts/twists. Miller can and should be a +++ for us when pressuring him. Get him coming forward or moving, hrs not an athletic guy at all.

Get a lead

 

[pdangle]

I think in a perfect world Rex would love to rush just 4. It come down to whether they can get pressure and stop the run, or not. If the Oline is having a bad day, or matchups favor the Buf 4 that day, then yes that's ideal.

In other words, they'll try it, and keep using it if works. But yes, I agree, one KEY would be can 4 rushers be effective so we can drop back 7 to cover/zone/blitz i.e whatever works there as well.

 

[mihap]

Well I was listening to the podcast and there was a unanimous agreement that Red Ryan would be very aggressive in coming after Brady in Sunday's game. Well that makes a sense for a lot of reasons. First it is what his first instinct are. Second blitzing and aggressive pass rushes are always going to be more effective when you are at home, where the crowd noise makes communications that much more difficult. It always gives the defensive rush an edge, since when it's loud enough, the OLmen are slower coming off the ball. Third, this is a VERY young OL, especially in the middle, and being aggressive is more likely to create mistakes. And last, you have a great front 7 which includes the league's leading sacker, and has Marcel Darieus coming back this week
So for all those reasons that is why I believe we are going to see more of the same of the basic Pittsburgh strategy this week. What do YOU think?

I am not worried about offense. Rex is stupid if he would go heavily on Brady. Rush 3 or 4 is awesome strategy against Brady, but are they capable of doing that 60min? tahts the problem. eventually every D should crack except Seattle. Playing in OTs against Cardinals like the game just started. Unbelievable.
So if Pats D hold Brady will rip 3 rush D apart.
And i think their Saftey Aaron williams is out. Not sure about this, i ll check later.

 

[ChessToCheckers]

I'm expecting a great chess match! Hopefully, we'll figure out what Rex is doing quickly and exploit that. On the other side of the ball, I believe the Bills have had success with the big plays. I expect more rope-a-dope from Patricia. Should be a great game!

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

It's been awhile since we've used the "Please Mr. Brady, can you let us rotate our defensive player", quick tempo offense. Do you think we could go into that mode if we get the right matchup?

 

[PatsDeb]

Well I was listening to the podcast and there was a unanimous agreement that Red Ryan would be very aggressive in coming after Brady in Sunday's game. Well that makes a sense for a lot of reasons. First it is what his first instinct are. Second blitzing and aggressive pass rushes are always going to be more effective when you are at home, where the crowd noise makes communications that much more difficult. It always gives the defensive rush an edge, since when it's loud enough, the OLmen are slower coming off the ball. Third, this is a VERY young OL, especially in the middle, and being aggressive is more likely to create mistakes. And last, you have a great front 7 which includes the league's leading sacker, and has Marcel Darieus coming back this week.

Well not so fast. It's a good rule to ALWAYS take a second look when the first answer seems too easy. So it got me to thinking about Rex Ryan's greatest victory of his coaching career, when he came into NE and shocked a heavily favored Pats team in that 2010 playoffs. Rex completely surprised that great offense when he consistently rushed only 3 or 4 while dropping back 7 or 8. In THAT way he was able to be very physical with Welker and double Gronk and Hernandez, who were our biggest threats. In the end he played a 5 under defense to choke off our short game, with 2-3 deep. It allowed the Jets to be physical with the Pats receivers off the LOS, yet still be in zone where they weren't subject to pick plays and wind up chasing receivers with their backs turned toward the LOS.

I also recall that, while the rush didn't get to Brady much, it still got him off his spot, while the tight coverage kept him from throwing to open receivers with any kind of rhythm. IIRC, lots of time I remember Brady holding the ball for what seemed to be forever, and eventually even the 3 man rushers got to him once in a while. It was a brilliant plan, which was compounded by the fact we didn't run the ball well, and Brady kept trying to fit the ball into tight spots while ignoring open RB's. After the 2007 Superbowl loss, I think this was the most difficult and painful loss of the BB era for fans to deal with. Well at least this one.

So here we are 6 years later. Rex is in a new job. Once again he has a good defensive team with 2 good CB's, a much better DL than he had in 2010, and fast LB's. So why WOULDN'T he go against expectations, and only rush 3 or 4 men against our weakest area, and max protect against our prolific passing attack, while being physical with our receivers and once again selectively double our plethora of receivers and force Brady to hold the ball waiting for guys to come open and get to him with that 3 or 4 man rush. But more importantly NOT allow Brady to throw quickly with any rhythm. Isn't that what the Steelers did with much lesser talent, and yet still caused some problems for our offense for about half the game. THEN on those 4 or 5 occasions when you DO decide to blitz they will have much more impact than if you are doing it all game.

So for all those reasons that is why I believe we are going to see more of the same of the basic Pittsburgh strategy this week. What do YOU think?

I think you are right - Rex will go back to this well. The difference for us, I hope, will be that Brady is no longer afraid to throw to the RBs (White and even Blount caught a ball either last week or the week before) and Blount will hopefully be able pound the ball. Also, I can't remember, other than Welker, who our receivers were for that game, but I think we have a better all-around group this time around, and somebody should be able to get open to move the chains.

 

[Kontradiction]

The thing is, Rex can't play strictly man under this time around. For one, if he rolls out the kind of packages he did in the 2010 divisional round, the Pats will simply hand the ball off to Blount and run away from Dareus and over the Bills until they commit another man into the box. For another, the Pats are capable of going deep on this team now where they didn't have that threat in 2010. Hogan has shown that he can take the top off a defense as can Gronk. So I would welcome them rolling out the Nickel and playing the Pats that way. The Pats will run over that until they commit another man in the box then it will be time for Brady and the squad to come out and play.