How Belichick lost his place in posterity

Simpelton · Apr 3, 2024

Biffins said:
Now that their careers are over, and we have enough games and data of them playing without the other, it's ok to do an objective assessment.

Bill Belichick's record without Tom Brady: How legendary Patriots coach has fared before, after divorce with QB | Sporting News United Kingdom

Bill Belichick is one of the greatest coaches in NFL history, but his record without Tom Brady isn't too pretty.

www.sportingnews.com

Tom Brady Wins Losses Winning % Super Bowl titles
With Bill Belichick 249 75 .769 6
Without Bill Belichick 37 20 .649 1

While Brady did win a Superbowl in Tampa Bay, his winning percentage did drop from 76.9% to 64.9% demonstrating that Belichick did have an impact on Brady's game and ability and helped Brady go up very good, to stratospheric, and best all time.

And we have the data the other way around as well as BB also seems to have benefitted from Brady

Bill Belichick Wins Losses Winning % Super Bowl titles (as HC)
With Tom Brady 249 75 .769 6
Without Tom Brady 84 103 .449 0

Without Brady, Belichick likely cannot hold on to a HC job for more than 3-4 years with a garbage 44.9% win percentage, which is exactly what happened to him both at the Browns, or at the Patriots after Brady left, and he was fired both times. So Brady seems to have elevated Belichick from below average, or mediocre at best, to in the discussion for best all time.

But it seems people have elevated Brady's contribution to the run far above Belichick's. e.g. when people mention Paul Brown and Otto Graham (10 titles), they seem to revere Brown more. And when they mention Lombardi and Starr, it's no doubt the credit is heavily favoured towards Lombardi (likely due to run heavy era). But Belichick and Brady debate has only gone one way recently. With press, media, fans, and overall history seems to firmly be in the camp that Belichick rode Brady's coattails to success. How did this happen so quickly? He seems to have helped Brady on the margins as well.

Oh for the love of... how many times do we have to hear this before people figure out that the answer is ALL OF THE ABOVE.

Bill needed Brady, Brady needed Bill, and they both needed the version of Robert Kraft that existed during the dynasty years. Without a clever, experienced head coach, a dynamic quarterback AND a supportive owner, a dynasty doesn't happen.

Also -- come the F on dude, the quality of replacements matters. Brady playing for Bruce Arians with guys like Mike Evans, Gronk, AB and all the other massive offensive talents in TB is a whole lot different than Bill trying to win with Cam Newton and the stillborn corpse of Mac Jones.

Ian · Apr 3, 2024

venecol said:
Tuneless,

View attachment 57413

Pape · Apr 3, 2024

Ian said:

You Got It Animation GIF by SWR Kindernetz

Biffins · Apr 3, 2024

Ian said:
Not head coaches, but there were some terrific assistants/personnel people who had success both in the league and in the college ranks.

Bill was here in 1996 and played a key role in Parcells taking that team to the Super Bowl. Also happened to be the same year Kraft realized he wanted to hire Bill.

Again, I'm assuming if you watched the documentary, you know how that final season started and how it all fell apart. He shunned Kosar, started Testeverde, and they started winning. And Testeverde wasn't a stiff. He went on to have a solid career and it's why Parcells also grabbed him after the fact, and he was obviously even here at one point. They were also among the favorites in the AFC in 1995.

All I know is there wasn't a single negative discussion about Bill in that context here until he moved on from Brady, and all of a sudden, all the talking heads on the radio/television picked that road to start traveling down. Every single person here thought he got a raw deal in Cleveland until he irked the masses in 2020. There wasn't a single thread before that where people disagreed. That documentary was eye-opening, especially given what fellow coaches, players, etc. had to endure when the news broke.

I'm frustrated about the end of 2017 and will forever be, that's inexcusable in my mind. But I'm not naive enough to discount everything else that happened before that and attach it 100% to one guy. Again, all you need to do is watch the postseason to realize how much great coaching matters.

If you want to talk about a bad coach who was carried by a great QB, that does exist. Tony Dungy - who wouldn't even be among a reputable contingent of coaches save for Payton Manning, given all the talent he wasted during his time in Tampa (with John Gruden being the guy who came in and won it all as soon as he was gone) - absolutely falls into that category.

And for anyone who puts Dungy ahead of Belichick - and I know it's coming - I don't know what to tell you.

Come on Ian. There have been TONS of threads where lots of people, including me, critisized Belichick's ridiculous draft reaches, obsession with horrible 2nd round defensive backs, poor treatment of players, and most of all his unappreciation of the talent that Brady was and the need to lock him up long-term. There was lots of criticism of Belichick even in the season of the last SB win because of how the contract discussion had broken down. And his drafts were already horrible. And FA selections also poor.

I can dig out some choice threads from 2017 or 2018 if you'd like.

Ian · Apr 3, 2024

Biffins said:
Come on Ian. There have been TONS of threads where lots of people, including me, critisized Belichick's ridiculous draft reaches, obsession with horrible 2nd round defensive backs, poor treatment of players, and most of all his unappreciation of the talent that Brady was and the need to lock him up long-term. There was lots of criticism of Belichick even in the season of the last SB win because of how the contract discussion had broken down. And his drafts were already horrible. And FA selections also poor.

I can dig out some choice threads from 2017 or 2018 if you'd like.

I was referring to the context of the Cleveland years.

100% agree - there have been thousands of posts and hundreds of threads criticizing Bill over the years. So no, no need to dig out any threads.

Biffins · Apr 3, 2024

Kasmir said:
The killer was Gronk retiring. It's almost impossible to replace Gronk -- and Brady got him back (along with AB) the next year in Tampa.

Gronk retiring was just another judgment on Belichick's poor treatment of players. Gronk said as much.

venecol · Apr 3, 2024

RobertWeathers said:
He didn't win the Super Bowl and the NFC that year was weak.

Reid is a HoF coach but let's not inflate the rest of his career now that he has a HoF QB.

Reid is a damn good coach. Always has been. He's got 3 losing seasons in 25 years. That's outstanding. His best QBs were McNabb, Vick and Smith, none of which are HOFers. This is more than winning SBs, but how they did as coaches w/o their HOF QB.

Ian · Apr 3, 2024

venecol said:
Reid is a damn good coach. Always has been. He's got 3 losing seasons in 25 years. That's outstanding. His best QBs were McNabb, Vick and Smith, none of which are HOFers. This is more than winning SBs, but how they did as coaches w/o their HOF QB.

They may not be HOF'ers, but they were among the top QBs in the league during their time. You also just listed three names who are better than the handful of guys Belichick has had over the course of his entire career. You can argue Cam, but Reid had those guys - with the exception of Smith - more or less in their youth. Bill got Cam right at the end where he fell off a cliff midseason.

However, Reid's absolutely a damn good coach. Other than hitting the wall in the NFC championship games, not much to criticize. And getting bounced in that game is far different than being one-and-done, which Dungy did more times than I can count.

venecol · Apr 3, 2024

Ian said:
Reid is a great coach but he had better QBs. Bill only had the span in Cleveland where he eventually went with Testeverde, and then Newton and Mac. Not the same sample size due to Brady’s tenure. That’s what skews that argument. I’ve said it before, but context definitely matters.

McNabb was better than Testaverde but not by much. Newton was better than McNabb. Testaverde was better than Vick and Smith.

Biffins · Apr 3, 2024

OldEngland said:
This is an interesting comparison, thank you for developing the topic.

If you don't mind I'm going to move the goalposts slightly. The reason is x4 of these coaches are still active and with a decade less coaching than BB, also Holmgren and Dungy had shorter coaching careers. I also prefer to measure by non-winning seasons as a 0.500 record doesn't get you a shot at the SB. Therefore I'm going to suggest a fairer comparison is non-winning seasons compared to retired HOF coaches, as we could theorise non-winning seasons come at the beginning/end/change of a career.

So how does BBs % record of non-winning seasons compare within the top 8 winningmost coaches of all time?

Don Shula = 6 non-winning seasons in 36 seasons (0.166). X2SBs
Tom Landry = 9 in 29 seasons (0.310). X2SBs
George Halas = 6 in 40 seasons (0.100). x6championships
Bill Belichick = 8 in 29 seasons (0.276). x6SBs
Chuck Noll = 8 in 23 seasons (0.347) x4SBs
Curly Lambeau = 7 in 33 seasons (0.212). x6championships
Paul Brown = 5 in 25 seasons (0.250). x7championships
Andy Reid = 5 in 25 (0.200). x3 SBs.

Honourable mention for some other HOF coaches with multiple SBs.
Bill Parcels 6 in 19seasons (0.316) x2SB
Bill Walsh 3 in 10seasons (0.300) x3SB
Joe Gibbs 4 in 16seasons (0.250) x3SB

I'd conclude BBs amount of non-winning seasons is relatively consistent with the greatest coaches ever to be involved in the game. Halas, Shula and Reid are the only ones to go <0.200, while other HOF coaches such as Landry, Noll, Parcells and Walsh >0.300. While his x6 championships are unparalleled in the SB era and can only be compared with Brown, Halas and Lambeau. I'm not remotely suggesting BB's final seasons weren't poor and disappointing, but it seems this isn't that unusual even among HOF coaches.

Yes it's not unusual and not the worst. But certainly it's not some strength either. He still ranks 6th out of the 8 people you listed there.

signbabybrady · Apr 3, 2024

Ian said:
They may not be HOF'ers, but they were among the top QBs in the league during their time. You also just listed three names who are better than the handful of guys Belichick has had over the course of his entire career. You can argue Cam, but Reid had those guys - with the exception of Smith - more or less in their youth. Bill got Cam right at the end where he fell off a cliff midseason.

However, Reid's absolutely a damn good coach. Other than hitting the wall in the NFC championship games, not much to criticize. And getting bounced in that game is far different than being one-and-done, which Dungy did more times than I can count.

The worst part is that he thinks Bill is better than Reid same as Knoll yet he still insists on twisting things.

maust · Apr 3, 2024

venecol said:
Why do you think Belichick traded him in '09? He only carried two QBs that season, so there was room for him.

Dude...

That might be in the top 100 lamest faux questions posed here in the past half dozen years (discounting every interrogative out of tommybrady12/Mac 10/blowtime69 or whatever he's calling himself this week).
It's sad really, I remember when you had game. If all you're going to do is mail it in why even bother trolling?

signbabybrady · Apr 3, 2024

venecol · Apr 3, 2024

RobertWeathers said:
My newest theory is MB showed up on gameday with booze on his breath which is why Bill didn't play him.

The players would've definitely noticed that. Nonsense. He warmed up. He played a ST snap.

Ian · Apr 3, 2024

venecol said:
McNabb was better than Testaverde but not by much. Newton was better than McNabb. Testaverde was better than Vick and Smith.

Well, he won with Testeverde, and 1995 would have gone differently had the move not been announced.

But McNabb was one of the best in the league for a while...just couldn't win the big game. I always sort of put their failures more on him than Reid.

Biffins · Apr 3, 2024

signbabybrady said:
Zant says Reid would of won more if he was more disciplined. Compared it to his time here.

Asante could have won another SB if we held on to that frickin interception. And we'd have a perfect season.

Biffins · Apr 3, 2024

TheRainMaker said:
Gronk had mentioned he was waiting for Tom to leave NE and that he would unretire.

He wanted to play with Tom but not with Bill.

Stu Pidassle · Apr 3, 2024

XLIX said:
You're taking an imaginary scenario and making up an imaginary Belichick comment in response to that imaginary scenario, and then the imaginary consequences of that imaginary comment, to support and praise Bill Belichick and criticize the "BB haters".

This, folks. This is what I meant when I talk about how the Belichick krishnas have lost their minds.

Despite all of the righteous indignation, the Butler benching was only one part of the story in the super bowl against the Eagles. As several other posters have highlighted key injuries and a passive game plan against a career backup QB were at least as impactful as the Butler situation. I can't imagine why certain fans celebrate BB's role in super bowl 49 and crucify him for super bowl 52 without knowing what really happened.

signbabybrady · Apr 3, 2024

Biffins said:
Asante could have won another SB if we held on to that frickin interception.

This thread is so much fun why not kick everyone in the balls thanks for that.

Ian · Apr 3, 2024

venecol said:
The players would've definitely noticed that. Nonsense. He warmed up. He played a ST snap.

I thought the same thing, but it would have depended on the timeline. If BB caught him early in the morning in passing, there was a ton of time in-between when he would have needed to be at the field, meetings, etc. He would have been OK by then.

I sort of have to agree it would have taken something significant - possibly something like that - to sit him completely. Again, not saying that's what happened, but I'm having a tough time 100% ruling it out. @RobertWeathers certainly had an interesting theory, albeit the way Butler pushed back and talked a little smack, I sort of feel like he's also maybe pushing his luck given that BB has kept silent on the matter, which - if there's an ounce of truth to it - would be to his benefit.

Tom Brady	Wins	Losses	Winning %	Super Bowl titles
With Bill Belichick	249	75	.769	6
Without Bill Belichick	37	20	.649	1

Bill Belichick	Wins	Losses	Winning %	Super Bowl titles (as HC)
With Tom Brady	249	75	.769	6
Without Tom Brady	84	103	.449	0

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