An interesting list of what can we get from QB desperate Teams for our pick #3

jmt57 said:

I understand the concerns that past history has shown that drafting a QB early is no sure thing. Just look at some of the top 10 QB draft picks of the past decade. 2020 was an outlier, and you are just as likely to get a Josh Rosen as you are to get a Patrick Mahomes.
2023: Bryce Young (1), C.J. Stroud (2), Anthony Richardson (4)
2022: none (Kenny Pickett, #20)
2021: Trevor Lawrence (1), Zach Wilson (2), Trey Lance (3), Justin Filds (11)
2020: Joe Burrow (1), Tua Tagovailoa (5), Justin Herbert (6)
2019: Kyler Murray (1), Daniel Jones (6) (and Dwayne Haskins at #15)
2018: Baker Mayfield (1), Sam Darnold (3), Josh Allen (7), Josh Rosen (10)
2017: Mitch Trubisky (2), Patrick Mahomes (10)
2016: Jared Goff (1), Carson Wentz (2)
2015: Jameis Winston (1), Marcus Mariota (2)


Here's the thing though. QB is the most important position on the team. Your chances with a QB selected at #3 is always going to be better than with a QB at #20, or #25, or #34.

Secondly, there is no guarantee that the 2nd tier QB that you are targeting will still be available at #34, or that you will be able to find a team willing to make a deal with you to trade up and get him.

Third, there is no guarantee that the 2nd tier (McCarthy, Nix) or 3rd tier (Pratt, Rattler) is ever going to be anything more than a career backup. A trade down has just as much of a chance of not being a sure thing, if not more so.

And fourth, the team is (hopefully) not going to have such an early draft pick again for a couple of decades. If you miss here, you will be right back looking to draft another starting QB in a few years - except now you will only be in the #8 - #15 range, making it nearly impossible to land that franchise QB.


In my opinion you would have to be thoroughly convinced with extreme concerns about whichever QB is still available at #3 to not take him there.

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DarrylS said:

There were 4 fast horses in '21 and for the most part they have crapped the bed, did not say I would not do it, just saying I am skeptical. There many holes in the offense, my view is that more draft capital will help...
Consider Mahomes #10, Jackson #32, Hurts #53 and of course #12 and Purdy any of whom I would welcome to to the Pats..

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One-If-By-Sea said:

Yup that is the mystery of the draft. If we take the risk with the Giants at #6, we get two more 2nd round picks which could be our new LT or RT and a WR #1. It is all a gamble.

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Ivan said:

That’s always possible, but I really wasn’t impressed with him when I watched him play. I think you want a college QB that dominates the opposition, not one who is being carried by his team. If they take him I’ll root for him to be successful, but I certainly won’t be counting on it.

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Ivan said:

I wouldn’t trade with the Giants without getting an additional first rounder, this year or next, and I would still want their 2nd. If they won’t give it then don’t do the deal.

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One-If-By-Sea said:

A number of evaluations said if McCarthy stayed in school and did well (showed improvement) he and Sanders would be Top QBs in the 2025 draft. So we chose McCarthy in the 2024 draft and work with him for a year. Then in 2025 we have one of the best prospects. Plus all the extra picks we got trading down in 2024. There are many ways to skin a cat.

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One-If-By-Sea said:

A number of evaluations said if McCarthy stayed in school and did well (showed improvement) he and Sanders would be Top QBs in the 2025 draft. So we chose McCarthy in the 2024 draft and work with him for a year. Then in 2025 we have one of the best prospects. Plus all the extra picks we got trading down in 2024. There are many ways to skin a cat.

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One-If-By-Sea said:

Ok. But that is not the point. McCarthy is young, just turned 21, and might be worth trading down, picking up 2 or 3 extra picks, and then selecting. Nix and Penix are 24 shortly, so they are different evaluations with less upside - what you see is what you get.

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Ochmed Jones said:

Whoever we play at qb will look terrible with that offensive line and those receivers.

If we sign a veteran qb(mayfield, brisset or minshew), keep zappe and trade down and draft McCarthy, this could get us back to being respectable fairly quickly; if we hit on a left tackle, and receiver in the second round!

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Ivan said:

Overall I believe in being flexible in the draft, and taking the best player available, as opposed to going need with your top picks. However QB is a different situation, as it’s the most important position,and you are bnever going to win it all without really good one, and no position is harder to fill with really good player than QB. So while you can look at a draft overall, group players at different positions in terms of value, and take chances moving around because even if you don’t get the specific player you want you can still get a comparable player at that position. QB is different, because everybyearbtherexareca number of teams that are QB desperate, and they will pay through the teeth to get their QB. So if you believe McCarthy and Maye are comparable prospects, and the Giants want to take Maye at #3, and you make the deal expecting to still take McCarthy at #6, but then the Falcons make a deal with the Chargers for the 5th pick, take McCarthy at #5, and you are left with with the worst QB’s in football, and no way to fix the position. So for me you don’t screw around with trading around in the hopes your QB will still be there, you take them if they are available and you believe in them.

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denverpatsfan said:

I am desperate for a 1st round QB. Don't overthink this pick. Top OT's will be gone if they trade back so WTF are you going to do? Draft another defensive player??

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Joey007 said:

I’m not sure why people are so scared to take a guy that might bust? It’s not like we’re giving up extra capital here.

I think it’s moreso scary when you give up multiple draft picks to move up for a guy who busts. If this guy doesn’t work out, we’ll likely be in a high pick situation again in 26-27 and can try again.

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slash83 said:

I’m down with the Denver trade, best CB duo with Surtain and Gonzalez.

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Jangles said:

So we could have a defense that allows less than 20 ppg and an offense that’s lucky to make it to double digits

What a strategy

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jmt57 said:

I understand the concerns that past history has shown that drafting a QB early is no sure thing. Just look at some of the top 10 QB draft picks of the past decade. 2020 was an outlier, and you are just as likely to get a Josh Rosen as you are to get a Patrick Mahomes.
2023: Bryce Young (1), C.J. Stroud (2), Anthony Richardson (4)
2022: none (Kenny Pickett, #20)
2021: Trevor Lawrence (1), Zach Wilson (2), Trey Lance (3), Justin Filds (11)
2020: Joe Burrow (1), Tua Tagovailoa (5), Justin Herbert (6)
2019: Kyler Murray (1), Daniel Jones (6) (and Dwayne Haskins at #15)
2018: Baker Mayfield (1), Sam Darnold (3), Josh Allen (7), Josh Rosen (10)
2017: Mitch Trubisky (2), Patrick Mahomes (10)
2016: Jared Goff (1), Carson Wentz (2)
2015: Jameis Winston (1), Marcus Mariota (2)


Here's the thing though. QB is the most important position on the team. Your chances with a QB selected at #3 is always going to be better than with a QB at #20, or #25, or #34.

Secondly, there is no guarantee that the 2nd tier QB that you are targeting will still be available at #34, or that you will be able to find a team willing to make a deal with you to trade up and get him.

Third, there is no guarantee that the 2nd tier (McCarthy, Nix) or 3rd tier (Pratt, Rattler) is ever going to be anything more than a career backup. A trade down has just as much of a chance of not being a sure thing, if not more so.

And fourth, the team is (hopefully) not going to have such an early draft pick again for a couple of decades. If you miss here, you will be right back looking to draft another starting QB in a few years - except now you will only be in the #8 - #15 range, making it nearly impossible to land that franchise QB.


In my opinion you would have to be thoroughly convinced with extreme concerns about whichever QB is still available at #3 to not take him there.

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One-If-By-Sea said:

Fair point. Risky strategies have risk and I can see you are not a gambler.

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Ivan said:

I answered this in my latest post. I wouldn’t screw around, take the QB. If you believe McCarthy is a better prospect than the others then just take him . The worst thing you can do is come away empty handed.

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