2016 College Watch List: RB's

Julius said:

The first thing that stands out is his ability to jump cut, his patience setting up blocks, and the way he squeezes through the smallest cracks to gain yardage. He can also catch passes out of the backfield, which should make the offense less predictable. He seems to lack home run speed, which might hurt his stock.

I'm hearing mixed messages on his pass blocking, but he seems quite willing to block for his quarterback.

Did I mention his father is a marine?

Seems like an option in round 2.

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Currently projects at the bottom of 3rd/4th round, so Pats could easily have him with one of the 3rd round picks. Pats were reportedly watching him. So that pick seems certainly very possible. I wouldn't mind that at all.

Samaje Perine could be available there as well. James Conner further down.

Id be perfectly happy with any of these three in the middle rounds.

This is what makes me nervous about Kareem Hunt. He doesn't have much experience against stacked boxes.

manxman2601 said:

This is what makes me nervous about Kareem Hunt. He doesn't have much experience against stacked boxes.

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Then the question becomes, "How often do the Pats actually run the ball against stacked boxes?"

maineman209 said:

Then the question becomes, "How often do the Pats actually run the ball against stacked boxes?"

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That doesn't really matter to me. If I'm investing a draft pick in them, I want to know that they can.

Interesting. De'veon Smith is one of those guys I think fits very well for the Pats at RB as a late-ish day three pick. The only doubt I had was his 7.30 3-cone (the 3-cone and Pats picks at RB seem to correlate strongly). Well, Smith managed to drop his 3-cone time from the combine to 7.00 at the pro day. He's a power inside runner that blocks very well - an ideal Blount re-placement..

maineman209 said:

Then the question becomes, "How often do the Pats actually run the ball against stacked boxes?"

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Next to never. Brady will always change the play to a pass against a stacked box.

In fact tape shows Brady is not afraid to call a pass play with only six in the box, especially if he has a linebacker in single coverage against any of his receivers.

manxman2601 said:

That doesn't really matter to me. If I'm investing a draft pick in them, I want to know that they can.

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But, wait! Don't we have Brady for that?

Ochmed Jones said:

Next to never. Brady will always change the play to a pass against a stacked box.

In fact tape shows Brady is not afraid to call a pass play with only six in the box, especially if he has a linebacker in single coverage against any of his receivers.

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Well, that's the other side of it. It's possible that Hunt didn't face stacked boxes very often because opponents were more focused on defending against Toledo's passing attack. Their QB, Logan Woodside, put up 32/game for an average of 317 yards with a 69% completion rate and 45 TDs against 9 INTs.

Toledo's schedule wasn't all creampuffs. They only lost by 2 @BYU, 53-55.
Hunt had 41/187 and 2 TDs rushing, 4/49 receiving.

Their only blowout loss, 35-55, was @ #12 Western Michigan in their next-to-last game of 2016. Hunt had 30/227 and 2 TDs rushing, 3/73 receiving.

Anyway, Hunt's split stats show a nearly even level of production regardless of the level of opposing team.

manxman2601 said:

Interesting. De'veon Smith is one of those guys I think fits very well for the Pats at RB as a late-ish day three pick. The only doubt I had was his 7.30 3-cone (the 3-cone and Pats picks at RB seem to correlate strongly). Well, Smith managed to drop his 3-cone time from the combine to 7.00 at the pro day. He's a power inside runner that blocks very well - an ideal Blount re-placement..

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I wouldn't use even a 7th-rounder on him.

I will be very, very disappointed if the only RB that Bill drafts is De'veon Smith. Sign him as a UDFA? I have no problem with that.

captain stone said:

I wouldn't use even a 7th-rounder on him.

I will be very, very disappointed if the only RB that Bill drafts is De'veon Smith.

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Then we will disagree on that. I think he's one of the best that fits what we need on the roster. A between the tackles grinder.

What's wrong with having a Power Back with some actual explosiveness?

Think of today's Tom Brady, with 2004's Corey Dillon but 6 years younger.

captain stone said:

What's wrong with having a Power Back with some actual explosiveness?

Think of today's Tom Brady, with 2004's Corey Dillon but 6 years younger.

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Nothing. Find me one.

I think all of Perine, Hunt, Foreman, Gallman, Connor & Hill are more explosive through the hole than Smith is.

captain stone said:

I think all of Perine, Hunt, Foreman, Gallman, Connor & Hill are more explosive through the hole than Smith is.

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And most will go before the latter part of day three and some have fumble issues or bad 3-cones. We'd be picking RB #4. I'm not sure we should be using mid-round draft capital on someone who'd struggle to get beyond the inactives list.

manxman2601 said:

Nothing. Find me one.

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F0reman.

reamer said:

F0reman.

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A power runner or just a big one? Also see my reply to the captain. I don't like the value of a mid-round RB to be on the inactives list this year.

manxman2601 said:

A power runner or just a big one? Also see my reply to the captain. I don't like the value of a mid-round RB to be on the inactives list this year.

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I think he can do it all. He was pretty good in short yardage. He had some nasty stiff arms this year (just as good as anything Fournette showed), and he runs through arm tackles. He might not be a sledgehammer, but he's pretty good.

reamer said:

I think he can do it all. He was pretty good in short yardage. He had some nasty stiff arms this year (just as good as anything Fournette showed), and he runs through arm tackles. He might not be a sledgehammer, but he's pretty good.

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Fair enough, although I lean towards he being a RB helped by scheme against bad defenses. I also don't like the value of a mid-round RB in this draft. I do agree that there's an upside to him though. It might be irrelevant come tuesday however.

captain stone said:

I wouldn't use even a 7th-rounder on him.

I will be very, very disappointed if the only RB that Bill drafts is De'veon Smith. Sign him as a UDFA? I have no problem with that.

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It seems like there might be a buttload of worthwhile UDFAs to try to sign after the draft. For me, a 7th round pick should be used on a UDFA that you don't want to have to compete for in the scrum.

I wouldn't be particularly upset with the Pats using their 7th on Smith or any one of a dozen or so other potential UDFAs. Heck, by the start of the 7th, I wouldn't be surprised if BB has picked up a couple additional picks from minor trades down.

I am going with whatever Mike Lombardi mentions on twitter/podcast. He is likes Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara after Fournette, Cook and McCaffrey. He looks for backs that can operate in spread offense (good pass catchers, good acceleration/vision to handle "draws").
So far Lombardi has been right about Butler, Timmy Jernigan, Richard Sherman, Peterson, Jaime Collins, ...