My opinion: Welker is now closer to mediocrity than stardom

JackBauer said:

1.) Welker's skills are in decline and the drops have become a real issue.

2.) That said, he would still be the best receiver on this team were he still here (well, unless Amendola could stay healthy, perhaps). I wish he were still around to ease the transitions for KT/Dobson, but he isn't. C'est la vie.

I don't see what's so unreasonable about those propositions.

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I think come January, we might actually be thankful we had this rough stretch where Brady had to work things out with Dobson & Thompkins - because, if anything, it will accelerate the transition, and we're fortunate the schedule makers have complied in making this feasible.

I never bought the whole "Welker makes things TOO easy for Brady" argument. And I still don't. You'd never turn down production, that's just crazy. But, he's gone, and it is what it is - this struggle to get things going with the rookies could payoff, if we manage to weather it in the meanwhile.

Yeah he's on the decline, although not a precipitous one. Welker can't get open against good teams(Baltimore, Giants, SF). Welker only gets open against AFC East teams and pads his stats that way. Aaron Hernandez would get open against tough competition(i.e Seattle, SF and NYG)...that's where we are going to miss him.

WIth that being said, I'd take a mediocre Welker over that antique Amendola any day.

AndyJohnson said:

I have no doubt Welker is in decline. Thats a fact of life, and wear and tear.
This thread is just a few years ahead of the curve.

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So is Brady,so is Wilfork in decline but I think we will see a few more good seasons before their careers are over...same with Welker who should still top or near 1,000 yards this season.

BradyManny said:

I think come January, we might actually be thankful we had this rough stretch where Brady had to work things out with Dobson & Thompkins - because, if anything, it will accelerate the transition, and we're fortunate the schedule makers have complied in making this feasible.

I never bought the whole "Welker makes things TOO easy for Brady" argument. And I still don't. You'd never turn down production, that's just crazy. But, he's gone, and it is what it is - this struggle to get things going with the rookies could payoff, if we manage to weather it in the meanwhile.

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And if they learn to hold onto the ball when it hits them in the hands.

Regardless of what "side" you're on Welker is dropping a lot of balls. And if he has to extend his arms more than 3/4 of the way, he is not catching it. If you don't believe it then it tells me you haven't watched the first two games.

I think most of the Posts is this Thread are Hyprocrital...if WW had resigned with the Patriots he would be the best thing since slice bread. If WW was still on this Team he would be the best WR on this Team, even with AD who's banged up at the moment with his durability??? One things for sure declining skills and all WW is a Great Forth Option in Denver at the moment. If he's their #4 option on Offense you can see why they are SB favorites...because he would be #1 here that alone should tell ya. In a Boston accent "The Patriots Need anotha Welkah!.

ausbacker said:

You prove yourself to be as wrong as often as you are right. I watched both games. I'll stick with what I read and saw ahead of your position.

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I didn't watch all of either Denver game, but he was rarely covered by more than one guy on the snaps I saw, and that guy wasn't the #1 CB either.

Unless the D approached him differently in every snap I missed, your assessment mirrors mine.

As for the OP, Wes would be a no-brainer upgrade over what NE has in their arsenal right now, but you are right that he isn't the same guy any more. He isn't nearly as explosive in his cuts and he moves the way he did last year when he was beaten down pretty good. Maybe he is currently injured and he'll heal and look good as even, I don't know. But he's not the old Wes at the moment.

And, yes, his hands are a serious problem.

I will say this. With Ryan Clady gone, Welker's targets could go up a lot since Manning is going to have to get rid of the ball quicker and there is even more of a chance that their running game is going to suck all year. I don't think Knowshon Moreno can repeat last week's performance week in and out and they have no other RB on the roster able to carry the load.

PatsFan2 said:

I think most of the Posts is this Thread are Hyprocrital...if WW had resigned with the Patriots he would be the best thing since slice bread. If WW was still on this Team he would be the best WR on this Team, even with AD who's banged up at the moment with his durability??? One things for sure declining skills and all WW is a Great Forth Option in Denver at the moment. If he's their #4 option on Offense you can see why they are SB favorites...because he would be #1 here that alone should tell ya. In a Boston accent "The Patriots Need anotha Welkah!.

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He'd be the best available receiver right now by a country mile. Acknowledging this doesn't change the fact that he isn't the same guy any more and his hands look to be a perpetual issue moving forward. Nor does it change that NE actually had his market pegged. Frankly, everything that has played out to date validates NE's position on Wes.

Rob0729 said:

I will say this. With Ryan Clady gone, Welker's targets could go up a lot since Manning is going to have to get rid of the ball quicker and there is even more of a chance that their running game is going to suck all year. I don't think Knowshon Moreno can repeat last week's performance week in and out and they have no other RB on the roster able to carry the load.

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At least we'll likely see the end of the health argument re:Welker vs Amen if Manning starts blindly dumping it off to Welker to save his own neck.

ThatllMoveTheChains!!! said:

At least we'll likely see the end of the health argument re:Welker vs Amen if Manning starts blindly dumping it off to Welker to save his own neck.

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History has shown that the guys Manning throws to over the middle tend to get injured a lot. See Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez, Brandon Stokely, etc. I hope Welker bucks that trend.

As much as it seems that I hate the guy in this thread, he still is one of my favorite all time Patriots and I still display his signed football proudly in my man cave. He is the last person I want to see Manning hang out to dry to get creamed by a defender.

ThatllMoveTheChains!!! said:

At least we'll likely see the end of the health argument re:Welker vs Amen if Manning starts blindly dumping it off to Welker to save his own neck.

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If Sunday is any indication, he won't catch that pass. He was right in alligator arming that ball because, if he didn't, he could have been taken out on a stretcher. Manning left him out to dry on that one. When I think of it, I have never seen Welker intentionally alligator arm a pass thrown his way on this team. Brady, aside from being better than Manning in just about every catagory a quarterback can be better than another quarterback, is better at putting a pass in a position that gives his WR the lowest chance to take a highlight reel hit. Not saying Welker didn't absorb them here. He took his fair share of shots. But nothing like what Manning is going to hang him out for eventually.

KontradictioN said:

If Sunday is any indication, he won't catch that pass. He was right in alligator arming that ball because, if he didn't, he could have been taken out on a stretcher. Manning left him out to dry on that one. When I think of it, I have never seen Welker intentionally alligator arm a pass thrown his way on this team. Brady, aside from being better than Manning in just about every catagory a quarterback can be better than another quarterback, is better at putting a pass in a position that gives his WR the lowest chance to take a highlight reel hit. Not saying Welker didn't absorb them here. He took his fair share of shots. But nothing like what Manning is going to hang him out for eventually.

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Good to hear that Welker is exercising some self preservation; I definitely am not rooting for him to repeatedly get laid out. My attempt to comically allude to this failing of Manning's came off much more callous than intended.

supafly said:

For this season and 2014--absolutely.

Then again, we may not have had the opportunity to try and get a player like Amendola for the future either, so that may/may not have come into the equation.

I'd have a hard time imagining Belichick being okay with paying them both 5-6 million AAV at the same time.

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I dunno...first..Amendola is OK. But he's no Wes Welker. There are lots of comparable guys out there with less of an injury history who they could have brought in IMO. One player I hoped (and still hope) they would have explored is Nate Washington down in Tennessee. Smart Veteran, runs great routes, stays healthy.. but has just been plagued with awful QB play.

Secondly (the bolded)...I think that is a MAJOR part of the problem WHY NOT pay them both? Brady deserves some $ invested in his receiving corps.

In what world does nate washingtin stay healthy?

BradyFTW! said:

He's been on his new team for 2 weeks. In much the same way that we're not judging Dobson, Thompkins, or Amendola yet, I'd suggest holding off for Welker as well.

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Well said.

everlong said:

If you watched the games he's not the same player. One of the things that always made him special was the YAC. It's simply not there now because his margin of beating the defender is less than before. He's had some bad drops as well. I was in the camp that thought he would go to Denver and not miss a beat but the early returns just don't seem like that will be the case.

2013 12 REC 26 YAC 2.16 AVG
2012 118 REC 702 YAC 5.95 AVG
2011 122 REC 732 YAC 6.00 AVG
2010 86 REC 411 YAC 4.80 AVG (Coming off ACL)
2009 123 REC 709 YAC 5.76 AVG
2008 111 REC 751 YAC 6.77 AVG (Matt Cassel)
2007 112 REC 626 YAC 5.59 AVG

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Thanks for some real stats, even if two games is a limited sample. I looked at Welker's game-by-game records for 2012 and 2011 and there's a wide range in his average game performance (and thus a material Standard Deviation), so, I'm sure you'd agree that we need to wait to understand what your numbers might or might not mean.

It's a long season and we'll have to see how it plays out, but, all in all, I'd rather he were playing catch this year with TB than with Peyton.

BradyFTW! said:

He's been on his new team for 2 weeks. In much the same way that we're not judging Dobson, Thompkins, or Amendola yet, I'd suggest holding off for Welker as well.

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:agree:

Some folks seem to feel that we have to give Amendola a chance to show that he is the guy the Pats need but that we have enough information to write Welker's departure off as more or less a non-event.

I'll wait and see how Welker does as the season progresses and I'll wait and see what Amendola brings to the table this season, when and if he ever plays a full game a few weeks in a row.

For now, I'll stick by my view that we'd be better off with Welker. If I'm proven wrong, I'll man up and eat crow, but I won't concede that the outcome is a foregone conclusion, one way or the other.

Mogamedogz said:

Secondly (the bolded)...I think that is a MAJOR part of the problem WHY NOT pay them both? Brady deserves some $ invested in his receiving corps.

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But has any team got as much invested in the TIGHT ENDS as the Pats? Those are receivers, too. Between Gronk, Ahern and Amendola/Welker, that's a lot of green, and if that means no Vollmer this year or letting Solder walk, how grateful will a hospitalized Brady be?

Mogamedogz said:

I dunno...first..Amendola is OK. But he's no Wes Welker. There are lots of comparable guys out there with less of an injury history who they could have brought in IMO. One player I hoped (and still hope) they would have explored is Nate Washington down in Tennessee. Smart Veteran, runs great routes, stays healthy.. but has just been plagued with awful QB play.

Secondly (the bolded)...I think that is a MAJOR part of the problem WHY NOT pay them both? Brady deserves some $ invested in his receiving corps.

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Assuming good health (a huge assumption at this point) 2013 Amendola is better than 2013 Welker. I'll grant you that 2013 Amendola may never approach 2007-2009 Wes, but that isn't NE's choice at the moment.

I also fail to see how you can criticize NE for not investing in the receiving corps when they

A) Offered Welker more money than he ultimately accepted in Denver.

B) Have handed out three $30mm contracts to receivers in just the last three years, as well as another $3mm a year to Lloyd, $6mm and two draft picks for Ocho and three other draft picks (2/4/7).

You want to fault them for the actual selections, fine. But the cheap rhetoric has no basis in reality.