Lazar: Belichick’s in-game decision-making is holding the Pats back

[captain stone]

Also, there was still plenty of time. I think they called a run and if Harris breaks off a decent gain, it opens things up where they could have run a few more plays and gotten into field goal range. But that first play was ugly, so it didn't surprise me after seeing that they just decided to kneel on it.

Go back and watch that first play if you have Gamepass. I was like, "crap...so that's why."

Then don't run the dam ball up the middle! Run a reverse if you want to run, or throw from play-action to see if you can catch anybody napping...

Mac had already had success operating a 2-minute/end of halves situation this season; it was a dam shame that he wasn't given a real opportunity to steal 3 points in that situation too.

 

[ahmed]

Agree with the above; however...



A decade?!? If we finish with double-digit losses, then have another mal-spent free agency period, followed by yet another garbage draft, and then a third straight below-.500 season, then Bill & his entire fam damily need to GTFO.

How long did Ravens and Bucs take to fire their 1 time winning SB HCs? Denver with Shanahan? Bill won much more and has way more respect. He can easily survive a .500 record for next decade.

 

[Deus Irae]

He can easily survive a .500 record for next decade.

No chance

 

[Biffins]

My understanding is that the predicted win probabilities are provided by some form of machine learning algorithm that takes into account information about the current game, but has been trained on a large set of historical play-by-play data, hopefully also including external factors like weather, injuries etc (the total of the information in the training sample is what I referred to as "average"). For a choice between two alternatives the algorithm may predict a 1% difference. Based on my own work with machine learning algorithms in much better controlled and data rich settings, this is unlikely to be a meaningful distinction (supported e.g., by the wild swings one can observed in real-time calculations of these probabilities). What is now a 1% distinction in one direction could easily flip sign, if more data or slightly updated models become available, and even in the best of circumstances is small compared to the swing one good (or bad) tackle, throw, run, kick etc can make.

Note added in proof: Going back to the last "big controversy", going for it or kicking vs Tampa Bay, different analytical models gave wildly different estimates of the respective win probabilities, with swings of more than 10%. Prior information not available to the models (e.g. that Mac got his head scrambled by a hit a few minutes prior or that Folk was making 55+ yard kicks with ease in warmup) easily trumps the predictive power of the model for situations close to 50/50.

I don't need a predictive model to tell me that wasting the last 2 minutes before half on a valuable possession was a bogus move.

 

[catent]

Is that how you feel right now? I have not felt that way in years about him. We have been so ultra conservative and then his kick the ball to the other team in OT when we win the toss, the benching of Butler, the pooch punt vs Philly, the awful offensive game plans, trying to make Newton play in the Brady offense ... I mean it goes on and on. I started to lose faith in him back in 2015 when he literally blew home field advantage with Denver by coaching the 2 worst games of his career vs the Jets and then the Fins.

Putting aside everything else in this post ...

"I started to lose faith in [Belichick] back in 2015"

The New England Patriots (coached by Bill Belichick) appeared in three Super Bowls and won two of them from 2016-2018.

I don't care how talented your roster/quarterback is, you don't appear in three Super Bowls (over a three year span) and win two of them with a bad head coach, let alone an average one. They quite literally appeared in a Super Bowl three years in a row (2016, 2017, 2018).

Maybe you can pull off one appearance/win with a loaded roster but poor coaching, but a team certainly doesn't get there three times in a row and win two of them with anything less than great coaching, period.

 

[Brewskies]

I am not ready to throw both Belichick and McDaniels under the bus. As a fan, watching games on TV, I don't know what they know to make those decisions. I would just be gambling, hoping for a great outcome.

I do agree with the decision to punt in the OT of the Dallas game. There was more upside opportunities punting than going for it and missing, just my opinion.

 

[Pats2000]

Putting aside everything else in this post ...

"I started to lose faith in [Belichick] back in 2015"

The New England Patriots (coached by Bill Belichick) appeared in three Super Bowls and won two of them from 2016-2018.

I don't care how talented your roster/quarterback is, you don't appear in three Super Bowls (over a three year span) and win two of them with a bad head coach, let alone an average one. They quite literally appeared in a Super Bowl three years in a row (2016, 2017, 2018).

Maybe you can pull off one appearance/win with a loaded roster but poor coaching, but a team certainly doesn't get there three times in a row and win two of them with anything less than great coaching, period.

I go back to my post about living in some weird alternate reality where everyone thinks any coach that had Brady could go to 9 SB, win 6 and like what 14 AFC championship games?

 

[1960Pats]

Also a fact: you can't make those assessments without proper context, including who else was on those teams BB built with/without Brady, at what point in his tenure here or at Cleveland those wins and losses occurred, etc. For instance, in 16 of Brady's 20 seasons here, the Patriots had a top-10 defense. And remember, the Patriots went 11-5 with Matt Cassel in the season Brady was injured. BB orchestrated a winning team of which Brady was a key component, but it would be incorrect and unfair to call BB a failure without him.

I wouldn't call Bill a failure, but like all coaches he needs better players to win.

 

[1960Pats]

100% this. Questioning the personnel moves is one thing. But in critical moments during the game, there's no other guy I'd want out there. Again, if someone wants to go there and say things questioning him or criticizing him, I've loosened the reigns there a bit but I'm really asking that it's done constructively while giving examples of what you would have preferred to have seen done differently so we can at least have discussions. But otherwise, we've seen enough examples over the years to realize the guy is the best in the game.

As @Tunescribe said, when this era eventually ends - and it will - I don't think people will realize how much closer to just being part of the pack we're going to be. Players come here to play for him. That's another aspect that will go away and I think it's being a little underplayed.

There seems to be as many players, if not more, who don't come back to be with Bill.

The winning era is already over and I don't expect to see a return engagement anytime soon. After the run we had I can live with that.

 

[Pats2000]

Putting aside everything else in this post ...

"I started to lose faith in [Belichick] back in 2015"

The New England Patriots (coached by Bill Belichick) appeared in three Super Bowls and won two of them from 2016-2018.

I don't care how talented your roster/quarterback is, you don't appear in three Super Bowls (over a three year span) and win two of them with a bad head coach, let alone an average one. They quite literally appeared in a Super Bowl three years in a row (2016, 2017, 2018).

Maybe you can pull off one appearance/win with a loaded roster but poor coaching, but a team certainly doesn't get there three times in a row and win two of them with anything less than great coaching, period.

*cough* Chiefs *cough*

 

[Pats2000]

There seems to be as many players, if not more, who don't come back to be with Bill.

The winning era is already over and I don't expect to see a return engagement anytime soon. After the run we had I can live with that.

How often do players return to teams they've moved on from in general? There's been plenty of player that come back for second stints. There are a few outspoken disgruntled players that should stfu because they dropped an easy interception.

 

[brdmaverick]

Since we're talking about the BB moves we don't like.......

This year....
1.) Didn't like punting in OT
2.) Hated the FG attempt at the end of the Tampa game.
3.) Was flabbergasted that Cam Newton was even here for training camp.

Past years
1.) Malcolm Butler - why why why, we deserve to know
2.) 2015 at Miami game plan - pathetic pathetic game

It was the first drive of overtime. The BB philosophy is to make a team work the length of the field. So you punt, try to force a return punt, and then drive for the winning FG.

Do y'all figure that the Patriots were expecting Bailey to just punt the ball to the 20? Do y'all figure that BB was planning on a 35 yard completion being given up?

But the Cowboys had been getting the yardage they needed ALL game. Match that with a tired defense, and yes, you would expect the Cowboys to go the length of the field.

 

[Deus Irae]

But the Cowboys had been getting the yardage they needed ALL game. Match that with a tired defense, and yes, you would expect the Cowboys to go the length of the field.

I'm not sure where you're getting that idea. On the 3 previous drives, they'd been held to deep FG attempts (49, 51, 45).

 

[sb1]

I go back to my post about living in some weird alternate reality where everyone thinks any coach that had Brady could go to 9 SB, win 6 and like what 14 AFC championship games?

I don’t think anyone thinks that.

But lots of people assumed bill could win with anybody. Sure hasn’t looked like it the last year and a half or so.

 

[Pats2000]

I don’t think anyone thinks that.

But lots of people assumed bill could win with anybody. Sure hasn’t looked like it the last year and a half or so.

Then they were not that bright

 

[Bruins29]

How often do players return to teams they've moved on from in general? There's been plenty of player that come back for second stints. There are a few outspoken disgruntled players that should stfu because they dropped an easy interception.

Chung
Hoyer 2 x
Branch
Carter
Bolden
Blunt
Bennett
TBC
Collins 2x
Watson
Van noy
Trent brown
Karras

 

[Pats2000]

Chung
Hoyer 2 x
Branch
Carter
Bolton
Blunt
Bennett
TBC
Collins 2x
Watson
Van noy
Trent brown
Karras

Blunt...lol... smoke em if you got em

 

[Bruins29]

Blunt...lol... smoke em if you got em

If you are getting caught smoking doobies and your last name is Blount....

 

[sb1]

Chung
Hoyer 2 x
Branch
Carter
Boldon
Blunt
Bennett
TBC
Collins 2x
Watson
Van noy
Trent brown
Karras

Ventrone 40x?

Looked it up and that’s about how many transactions there are with his name attached. Lol

 

[Bruins29]

Ventrone 40x?

Looked it up and that’s about how many transactions there are with his name attached. Lol

He might have the most transactions of all time but technically he would not be a part of the above list because he never played when he came back. But he did return after a stop with another team.

But his brother Ray did come back too