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Yes, BB is unique in working the draft.

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by patchick, May 19, 2011.

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  1. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    OK, we all know that you can "manufacture" draft value over the long term by trading into the future. We also know that BB is the leading practitioner of this little art. But I was surprised to discover that he's the ONLY practitioner of it.

    I just reviewed the past three drafts, looking for every major transfer of value from a current to future draft. Here's the full list of trades involving a day 1 or 2 pick where the clear majority of the compensation was in future picks:

    2009
    Seattle #37 Denver's 2010 1st
    San Francisco #43 + #11 for Carolina's 2010 1st
    New England #73 for Jax 2009 7th + 2010 2nd
    New England #89 for Tennessee 2010 2nd

    2010
    New England #89 for Carolina 2011 2nd

    2011
    New England #28 for New Orleans #56 + 2012 1st
    New England #92 + #125 for Oakland #219 + 2012 2nd

    That's 5 out of 7 for Belichick, and every single example for the past 2 years. IOW, nobody else does this at all. Even trade-happy Philadelphia makes most of its hay trading players for picks, or smaller deals like a high 4th this year for a low 4th this year + next year's 4th. Only BB runs a high-pick assembly line.

    (BTW all of that trading away does't mean that the Patriots "don't use their picks." In fact, they drafted an incredible 16 players in the top 3 rounds over that period.)
    Last edited: May 19, 2011
  2. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

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    BB has found an arbitrage and is working the hell out of it.

    The consensus is that a pick tomorrow is worth a round less than a pick today, with it being analogous to currency inflation.

    But that analogy is flawed. Since the year lost is subsequently gained on the backend of the rookie contract, the purchasing power remains the same. All that is sacrificed is the potential quality of this year's squad, which is a tough pill to swallow for someone trying to prove their worth to ownership and fans.

    As long as you have the job security to view the 2014 Patriots as important as the 2011 Patriots it is like free currency.
  3. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

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    This one confuses me:

    When was San Francisco in posession of Carolina's 2010 1st rounder?
  4. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #11 Jersey

    SF drafted Mike Iupati #17 overall with Carolina's 2010 1st.
  5. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

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    Oops, confusing years in my head... :bricks:
  6. Shelterdog

    Shelterdog Rookie

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    People really underestimate this fact.

    Like every team, the Pats have question marks at multiple position.

    However, most teams have to rely on late draft picks, cheap free agents, and the like as their solution to many of their question marks. The Pats' solution to many of their question marks is a young player drafted in the first three rounds.

    For example, the Pats and Jets both have uncertainity at the third wideout spot next year. The Pats probably go with either Tate or Price as their third receiver, while the Jets (assuming they are only able to keep one of Edwards or Holmes and lose Brad Smith) are going to rely on Cotch at number two and either Kerley (a fifth round pick), Turner (a waiver wire guy) or some as yet unsigned cheap veteran. Now Kerley or the cheap vet, either of whom is new to the Jets, could obviously be better than Tate or Price but my money is on the third round pick with system experience instead of the fifth round pick without it.
  7. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #11 Jersey

    A little corollary to this is that it's much easier for Pats' fans to name 2nd & 3rd round busts than most fans. The Pats give them twice as many opportunities. :)
  8. Shelterdog

    Shelterdog Rookie

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    Yup. Of course fans really overestimate how good the average second or third round draft pick ends up being. They think that every second and third round pick should be good when in fact maybe half of second round picks and a third of third round picks are.

    Butler and Brace are seen as big busts, and they're not particularly good NFL players at this point but if you look at the 11 guys drafted between right after them (J. Byrd, Everette Brown, Pat White, Clint Sintim, Connor Barwin, M.Mitchell in Oakland, Darcel McBath, Max Unger, Massaquoi, Levitre, Veikune) you've got two guys who are out of football (Veikune and White), four decent starters (Byrd, Unger, Levitre and Massaquoi) and five guys who haven't consistently cracked the starting lineup on crappy teams.
  9. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Fixed that for you. ;)
  10. TealSox

    TealSox Guest

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    General Managers and Head Coaches fall in love with players during the draft process. The Falcons fell hard for Julio Jones, Carolina fell in love with Everette Brown, Denver with Tim Tebow and the list goes on. Often times, it seems that these teams believe that they are one player away from reaching their goals, albeit a winning season, the playoffs or Super Bowl. Other times, a player is so good that a team believes the reward is worth the risk like Brady Quinn, Joe Staley or Michael Oher.

    Rarely have I got the opinion that Belichick falls in love with prospects prior to the draft, with exception of Darius Butler. I suppose an argument can be made that whenever he doesn't trade a pick, he fell in love with the player they selected (e.g. Ras-I Dowling). But overall, he doesn't get irrational about his picks and looks to gain value, whereby building value and diversifying his portfolio in a way.

    When the Patriots traded their first round pick to the Ravens, it wasn't because Belichick didn't have Michael Oher on his board. Oher was certainly on the board, but with the additional picks in the second and third round, Belichick figured he could still get a solid Offensive Tackle (in Volmer) plus Butler, Chung, Brace and Tate. Whereby the Ravens have their money on one player, the Patriots were able to spread the risk.
  11. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Put slightly differently: the Patriots could f*** up 1/3 of their picks in the first three rounds of their drafts, and still be almost guaranteed to come up with more good players than any other team in the league.
    Last edited: May 19, 2011
  12. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    These two facts are obviously not independent: the Pats have so many high picks on a yearly basis that they can afford to roll picks over this way. A team that comes in with the standard seven picks really can't afford to do this, certainly not as often as the Pats do.

    Interestingly enough, though, do you remember the last year the Pats DIDN'T trade a pick forward in the draft?
  13. Shelterdog

    Shelterdog Rookie

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    Having that many high picks gives you more flexibility to take real flyers or address very specific needs with later picks. When other teams are still trying to get position players who will make the team and will be needed on the 45 man roster the Pats are picking punters and long snappers and guys with cancer and QBs who might be able to return punts and special teams specialists.
  14. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Awesome list. Could toss in QBs who never started a game!
  15. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid On the Roster

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    #3 Jersey

    But how do you think we got extra Picks in the first place?? [​IMG]

    2006.

    http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/745042-evil-bill-does.html

    In 2007, even after dumping #2, #4, and #7 for Wes Welker and Randy Moss, we Traded Back ~ Traded OUT!! ~ with #3 ~ that's the Mario Henderson Trade ~ and we've been making gravy ever since!! :rocker:
  16. plk

    plk Rookie

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    To take one particularly clear example, in the trade above BB is collecting interest, in advance, of the #56 pick for the loan for one year of a first-round pick. It seems to me, that it is quite good interest.
  17. SunnyDenmark

    SunnyDenmark Rookie

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    Exactly. BB spreading the risk is him using his Economics degree. You can't be certain which stocks will soar, so you diversify your basket of funds. Sure 'blue chip' stocks (high first round) will usually have a higher probability of success. However, it is usually better to diversify your portfolio and have a mixture of blue chip and red chip players (late first & 2nd rounders). So all the eggs aren't in the proverbial one basket. The Jets approach will not be sustanable in the long run due to: a) injuries and b) have to hit on all your high picks - as you have so few and c) have to hope there are no off the field incidents (see Sergio Kindle among others).

    All good financial planners will tell you to divesify your investments. Hey even if you go 'all in ' like the Jets and actually DO get lucky enough to find good talented players - it is still a crap shoot as there are so many variables at play. ex. freak injury (Rosy Colvin), off the field events (Sean Taylor), bad girlfriends, unscrupulous financial advisors running off with your money, jealous teamates, all of which can mess with a players head. Or the players own head could be a problem if he starts to believe he is 'Gods gift' (see Rothesburger). Even if such a player doesn't get suspended /jailed for being stupid (Burgess, PacMan Jones) -their inflated ego can soon turn the locker room into a cancerous area. I would rather have the 3-4 good solid players trying to get better rather than the one Pro Bowler who is a prima donna (with exception at the QB position). Luckily, NEP got that QB position covered. :rocker:
  18. infowarrior

    infowarrior Rookie

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    How can butler and brace be busts they have not had enough time to prove their worth.. I seem to think that we needs to get a good defensive back coach...

    Look at terrance wheatley and whilhite i have not seen a bit of improvement from either of them and they were both kind of high picks. Why havent they straightned out merriweather I mean how hard is it to listen to the coachs.. I dont want to see meriweather go I think he just needs a little more time.
  19. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yep -- short term lending at usurious rates! And yet everybody else seems determined to shoot their wad on payday.
  20. MaineMan

    MaineMan Rookie

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    And doesn't one usually pay the interest up front when mortgaging something?
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