Yards Per Pass

[Synovia]

I'd just like to say that YPA is positively correlated with winning %.

I do not want to make a judgment about whether it is 'good', 'better', or 'best'. I just want to say that in the NFL it does correlate with winning %, so it's (IMO) worth discussing at the collegiate level.

It does. But College QB's YPA doesn't correlate to anything in their NFL careers.

 

[Synovia]

Most are within a few tenths of their college numbers.

Brees and Brady are the only ones off by a few tenths. Most are off by half a yard or more.

 

[TheSolderKing]

DEPENDING ON DOWN AND DISTANCE... ANYTHING 6 + IS


BEATS A HOMERUN ATTEMPT THAT FALLS INC

 

[RobertWeathers]

The most important stat for pass offense is yards per pass attempt. You can get away with a lower completion percent if your Yds/att is high enough. That stat also roughly correlates to winning football. Most know that teams throw more when behind. They often accumulate more passing yards than the winning team. The winner on the other hand amasses fewer yards through the air but usually has a higher yards per pass.

Why is this relevant?

I decided to mess around with some stats this evening after seeing another Ryan Mallett thread. College football doesn't track this particular stat so I decided to check out the active leading quarterbacks in this area. Just so you know I edited out Ryan's Michigan stats because the other guys got to play for the same team throughout.

The results are amazing! Ryan Mallett blew all these dudes out of the water. Even the small school gun slingers! He played in the most competitive conference and lit it up more than any QB in the country.

The stat is all the way at the end to the right.

Nice research but yard per pass is not the most important statistic. Set aside the physical and mental makeup and will to work hard, lead men and win, the most important INDIVIDUAL stat(s) are....

1. TDs thrown: How often a QB gets his team into the end zone is what matters most.

2. 3rd down comp %: How often your offense converts on 3rd down means that a QB is managing the game, extending drives and making progress towards a score.

3. INT % per throw- The less INTs a QB throws, the better chance his team has to win

There are others but IMO all the QBs who win and who lead efficient offenses all have high marks in these areas.

 

[Synovia]

Nice research but yard per pass is not the most important statistic. Set aside the physical and mental makeup and will to work hard, lead men and win, the most important INDIVIDUAL stat(s) are....

1. TDs thrown: How often a QB gets his team into the end zone is what matters most.

Why is a TD thrown by a qb more important than one where the team passes down to the 2 yard line and a RB punches it in?

2. 3rd down comp %: How often your offense converts on 3rd down means that a QB is managing the game, extending drives and making progress towards a score.

Drives can be extended on earlier downs. If you're good enough on earlier downs, you rarely see third down. Third down certainly has much more leverage, but i don't think its any more important than an earlier down.

3. INT % per throw- The less INTs a QB throws, the better chance his team has to win

This I agree is important, but fumbles are just as bad as Ints, and sacks aren't all that far off. Most times a QB gets sacked, either he fumbles, or the team punts a play or two later.

 

[randomk1]

The above stat chart just confrimed my thoughts, many in this forum believes that Ryan Mallet is a Drew Bledsoe 2.0, I disagrees, after watching him in college football and his video clips on youtube since he got drafted, the more I watch him the more I feel like he is just another Phillp Rivers replica, both loves to pass the ball like carzy, stats blowers, and both are childish and immature at times and questionable leaderships, don't you guys find that interesting?

Rivers is far better than you give him credit for.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Why is a TD thrown by a qb more important than one where the team passes down to the 2 yard line and a RB punches it in?

Don't follow? We're talking about Qb stats. Are completed passes to the 2 yrd line a better indicator of a QB's success than TD passes? It's all about a QB getting his team in the end zone.

Drives can be extended on earlier downs. If you're good enough on earlier downs, you rarely see third down. Third down certainly has much more leverage, but i don't think its any more important than an earlier down.

On average, an NFL team faces 10-14 3rd down conversion opportunities per game- even the great offenses like the 07 Pats had 11 3rd downs a game. Would they have converted 48% of those with a lousy QB?

This I agree is important, but fumbles are just as bad as Ints, and sacks aren't all that far off. Most times a QB gets sacked, either he fumbles, or the team punts a play or two later.

Splitting hairs IMO. QB's TOs are fine. I would argue that sacks are nowhere close to being as important as TOs. There are a number of sucessful QBs who have won SBs that have been sacked a ton. Brady was sacked 41 times in 01.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

he most important stat for pass offense is yards per pass attempt.

That's what I wrote. That it's a TEAM stat. I just attribute Arkansas' great YPA to Ryan Mallett because he is the outlying factor. Tebow and Sam Bradford played for football factories. Kellen Moore gets to play against inferior competition. Against VaTech? 5.7 YPA. So no, I'm not trying to use this team stat as a forecasting tool. In most cases there are multiple factors for high YPA. In Mallett's case there are fewer factors and he is the main one.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

This I agree is important, but fumbles are just as bad as Ints, and sacks aren't all that far off. Most times a QB gets sacked, either he fumbles, or the team punts a play or two later.

True. That said, none of those (sacks, INTs, and fumbles) are always the QB's fault (an INT can be a perfectly-thrown pass that the receiver bobbles, etc.).

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

Nice research but yard per pass is not the most important statistic. Set aside the physical and mental makeup and will to work hard, lead men and win, the most important INDIVIDUAL stat(s) are....

1. TDs thrown: How often a QB gets his team into the end zone is what matters most.

2. 3rd down comp %: How often your offense converts on 3rd down means that a QB is managing the game, extending drives and making progress towards a score.

3. INT % per throw- The less INTs a QB throws, the better chance his team has to win

There are others but IMO all the QBs who win and who lead efficient offenses all have high marks in these areas.

All of these stats suffer from variance big time. The only information one can obtain from these is how well a QB is playing at a given time. Not how well they will play.

A good YPA is indicative of an effective passing game and usually some offensive balance. A QB can string together a some games of 3 TDs per with high 3rd down% and low int% along with low YPA. That QB will get crushed against a good pass D. Like Matt Ryan.

 

[Synovia]

True. That said, none of those (sacks, INTs, and fumbles) are always the QB's fault (an INT can be a perfectly-thrown pass that the receiver bobbles, etc.).

Of Course.


And a 75 yd game winning touchdown can be a ball that hits a defender in the hands, and bounces to Brandon Stokely.

INTs are often less the QB's fault than we think, and Sacks are often more the QB's fault than we think.

 

[RobertWeathers]

All of these stats suffer from variance big time. The only information one can obtain from these is how well a QB is playing at a given time. Not how well they will play.

Respectfully disagree. Over their entire careers, the GoAT QBs excel in all three metrics that I mention above- Including winning.

A good YPA is indicative of an effective passing game and usually some offensive balance. A QB can string together a some games of 3 TDs per with high 3rd down% and low int% along with low YPA. That QB will get crushed against a good pass D. Like Matt Ryan.

Like pre 2004 Tom Brady? Joe Montana only went over 8.0 YPA twice in his career- with Jerry Rice and John Taylor to throw to.

YPA is a good stat. It means that the QB is getting good time, looking down field and hitting the receiver in stride. But to say it's the most important stat for a Qb to have just doesn't make sense to me.

 

[Synovia]

Respectfully disagree. Over their entire careers, the GoAT QBs excel in all three metrics that I mention above- Including winning.

Not only that, we're talking about YPA of college players, which doesn't correlate to anything at all in the NFL.

 

[AzPatsFan]

The most important stat for pass offense is yards per pass attempt. You can get away with a lower completion percent if your Yds/att is high enough. That stat also roughly correlates to winning football. Most know that teams throw more when behind. They often accumulate more passing yards than the winning team. The winner on the other hand amasses fewer yards through the air but usually has a higher yards per pass.

Why is this relevant?

I decided to mess around with some stats this evening after seeing another Ryan Mallett thread. College football doesn't track this particular stat so I decided to check out the active leading quarterbacks in this area. Just so you know I edited out Ryan's Michigan stats because the other guys got to play for the same team throughout.

The results are amazing! Ryan Mallett blew all these dudes out of the water. Even the small school gun slingers! He played in the most competitive conference and lit it up more than any QB in the country.

The stat is all the way at the end to the right.

Even more important is the 3-1 ratio of TDs to Ints...

 

[DonBlackmon55]

The most important stat for pass offense is yards per pass attempt. You can get away with a lower completion percent if your Yds/att is high enough. That stat also roughly correlates to winning football. Most know that teams throw more when behind. They often accumulate more passing yards than the winning team. The winner on the other hand amasses fewer yards through the air but usually has a higher yards per pass.

Why is this relevant?

I decided to mess around with some stats this evening after seeing another Ryan Mallett thread. College football doesn't track this particular stat so I decided to check out the active leading quarterbacks in this area. Just so you know I edited out Ryan's Michigan stats because the other guys got to play for the same team throughout.

The results are amazing! Ryan Mallett blew all these dudes out of the water. Even the small school gun slingers! He played in the most competitive conference and lit it up more than any QB in the country.

The stat is all the way at the end to the right.

Jake Locker and his 54% completion gets picked at #8 by Titans....WOW, just WOW

 

[billdog3484]

The most important stat for pass offense is yards per pass attempt.

says who???????

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

Respectfully disagree. Over their entire careers, the GoAT QBs excel in all three metrics that I mention above- Including winning.



Like pre 2004 Tom Brady? Joe Montana only went over 8.0 YPA twice in his career- with Jerry Rice and John Taylor to throw to.

YPA is a good stat. It means that the QB is getting good time, looking down field and hitting the receiver in stride. But to say it's the most important stat for a Qb to have just doesn't make sense to me.

YPA is indicative of a good pass offense. It's a team stat. The point I was making is that many stats can be inflated do to chance. Pre 2004 Brady did struggle against good pass defenses.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

says who???????

Says me, billdog. Says me.