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Yards Per Pass

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PatsCanDoIt, May 2, 2011.

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  1. PatsCanDoIt

    PatsCanDoIt Rookie

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    The most important stat for pass offense is yards per pass attempt. You can get away with a lower completion percent if your Yds/att is high enough. That stat also roughly correlates to winning football. Most know that teams throw more when behind. They often accumulate more passing yards than the winning team. The winner on the other hand amasses fewer yards through the air but usually has a higher yards per pass.

    Why is this relevant?

    I decided to mess around with some stats this evening after seeing another Ryan Mallett thread. College football doesn't track this particular stat so I decided to check out the active leading quarterbacks in this area. Just so you know I edited out Ryan's Michigan stats because the other guys got to play for the same team throughout.

    The results are amazing! Ryan Mallett blew all these dudes out of the water. Even the small school gun slingers! He played in the most competitive conference and lit it up more than any QB in the country.

    The stat is all the way at the end to the right.

    Attached Files:

  2. Synovia

    Synovia Rookie

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    No, its absolutely not.

    The most important thing for any offense is the ability to consistently get first downs. I'd rather have a guy who throws for 4 y/a but has a 100% completion percentage than a guy who has a 10y/a but has a 10% completion percentage.


    Why? The first guy scores every drive. The second guy scores every third or 4th drive.
  3. Dufflebagz

    Dufflebagz Rookie

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    :agree:

    Althought if the OP put that table together I thank him for making it, it was still an interesting read.
  4. Synovia

    Synovia Rookie

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    Oh, its a great post by the OP. And thanks for the chart, but people need to not state their opinions as absolutes unless they're ready to prove them.
    Last edited: May 2, 2011
  5. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Banned

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    I don't think you can take any one single stat and call it the "most important" for quarterbacks.

    High YPA is great, but not if it accompanies a lot of INT's. The QB rating stat tries to take into account all those factors, but that statistic has a few flaws as well.

    However, assuming we're talking about a guy with an established minimum number of attempts, I'd say QB rating is the best single stat.
  6. eom

    eom Rookie

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    how do you figure that?

    see above

    also, what the op should do now is give it some historical context with some other hyped guys coming out of school in previous years.
    Last edited: May 2, 2011
  7. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Cam Newton did not make the list.. interesting.
  8. Synovia

    Synovia Rookie

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    Because if you gain 4 yards on every play, you get a first down on every series. If you get a first down on every series, you end up in the endzone on every drive. If you get 100 yards on 10% of your attempts, you go 3 and out on most drives.

    Attempts aren't a limiting factor, possesions are. Converting those possesions into points is whats most important. Not getting yards in the least amount of throws.



    Football Outsiders has done a couple of studies on college stats for quarterback. Pretty much the only things that correlate with NFL performance are completion percentage and the number of starts a guy has. Lots of starts proves he was good enough to bet everyone out of the roster spot with just raw talent (and also means that the scouts have plenty of video). Completion percentage is pretty self explanatory.
    Like anything else, nothing is foolproof, and its more usefull for weeding out busts than it is picking stars. There's basically no correlation between YPA and NFL performance though.
    Last edited: May 2, 2011
  9. eom

    eom Rookie

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    if I throw for 4 yds, run for 0, throw for another 4 --- that is a punt, but I threw for 4 every time.

    then I throw for 4 and turn the ball over on a fumble -- that is another busted possession.

    then I get sacked, throw for 4, throw for 4 --- busted possession.

    you are 0 for 3 on possessions while throwing a 4 yd completion each time.


    meanwhile, offthemarcus russell throws 2 incompletes and a pick.

    second possession throws another 2 incompletes and a pick.

    third possession throws a 5o yd bomb (in the air) for a score.

    offthemarcus just outpointed you on a 1 for 7 performance --- live with that.
  10. emoney_33

    emoney_33 Rookie

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    Your unrealistic hypotheticals don't prove your case. In a world of realistic peripherals (i.e. 40-70 % comp percentage) YPA might be much more telling than in a world of unrealistic peripherals (i.e. 0 or 100 % comp. percentage).
  11. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x Rookie

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    I'd just like to say that YPA is positively correlated with winning %.

    I do not want to make a judgment about whether it is 'good', 'better', or 'best'. I just want to say that in the NFL it does correlate with winning %, so it's (IMO) worth discussing at the collegiate level.
  12. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #51 Jersey

    Wins? Yes.. yes I know that was a facetious remark.
  13. eom

    eom Rookie

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    Last edited: May 2, 2011
  14. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Banned

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    I think a QB's performance, especially in big games, is certainly a factor. But wins for a QB are an awful lot like wins for a pitcher. There's just way too many other factors beyond the QB's control.
  15. PatsCanDoIt

    PatsCanDoIt Rookie

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    Not for the QB, wins for the team. It's a team passing game. In Ryan's case he was playing in the SEC where all the teams are talented. So I give him more credit than the Houston QB.
  16. TheGreatestEVER

    TheGreatestEVER Rookie

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    Yeah you are right, there is no correlation between YPA and nfl success. Here is a look at some QB's with stats from their final two years of College, since those should arguably be their best years.

    Yards Attempts YPA QB Conference Success
    7842 824 9.5 Bradford SEC
    7446 1079 6.9 Ryan ACC
    7046 938 7.5 Flacco CAA
    5222 691 7.6 Brady Big 10
    7106 857 8.3 Manning SEC
    3393 473 7.2 Brees Big 10
    7559 881 8.6 Carr WAC BUST
    5109 697 7.3 Harrington Pac 10 BUST
    5768 838 6.9 Ramsey C-USA BUST
    6659 866 7.7 Palmer Pac 10
    8400 961 8.7 Leftwich MAC BUST
    4556 692 6.6 Boller Pac 10 BUST
    7298 898 8.1 Grossman SEC BUST
  17. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    No doubt Mallett was an amazing QB at Arkansas. As someone who doesn't watch a ton of football, I watched several Hogs games just to see him play. A lot of dropped passes by his receivers, too.

    That said, I believe the most important statistics is INT percentage. Of course, that assumes that the quarterbacks being compared are at least relatively close in the other categories.
  18. PatsCanDoIt

    PatsCanDoIt Rookie

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    A lot of these guys have the same YPA in the NFL. A few of these guys played for stacked teams or the best team in a weaker conference. Most are within a few tenths of their college numbers. You are right that the best indicator of NFL staying power by a QB is comp% and starts at the position. They also like to add the wonderlic score in there. That's the 26/27/60 rule (wonderlic/starts/comp%). Ryan Mallett fails the last part because of his poor play in Michigan. And I don't know his wonderlic. I would expect a QB for a powerhouse to have a great YPA like Bradford at OU or Grossman at Florida. Mallett didn't play for a football factory though.
  19. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Everything you need to know about Mallett you can see in the Alabama game. Arkansas had no business being in that game but Mallett was slinging it all over the field. Moved well in the pocket, threw on the run (he isn't supposed to be able to do that), and when he got time he attacked every square inch of the field.

    Unfortunately, Mallett made 3 horrific throws at the worst possible times. Fix the wiring in his brain that allowed him to attempt those throws and the Pats have a gem. But people will be looking for these types of throws in preseason games. If he can avoid them, he should eventually become a hotter commodity than Kolb is this year.
  20. hellolin

    hellolin Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    The above stat chart just confrimed my thoughts, many in this forum believes that Ryan Mallet is a Drew Bledsoe 2.0, I disagrees, after watching him in college football and his video clips on youtube since he got drafted, the more I watch him the more I feel like he is just another Phillp Rivers replica, both loves to pass the ball like carzy, stats blowers, and both are childish and immature at times and questionable leaderships, don't you guys find that interesting?
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