With Gabriel's release, does that mean....

[DaBruinz]

that the Pats go after a WR early in the draft again?

 

[notex]

the pats are going to draft 8 TE straight this year...you heard it first here

 

[jczxohn1]

that the Pats go after a WR early in the draft again?

I think so.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I really wouldn't mind seeing them sign a quality FA, Curtis for example as well as drafting a WR on day 1.

The one WR in this draft that reminds me of Branch is Smith of USC, but at 4.6 in the forty, he may not be fast enough for the Pats. Johnson, Meecham Smarj and Rice are all the tall long strider types that the Pats seem to ignore. Jason Hill is a fast, quick twitch kind of WR, but he's had a down year.
Ginn is very productive, an excellent return man and super quick twitch. But he probably won't be available when we pick and someone on this board suggested that his team mate Tony G is a better WR, although he looks slow to me.

So what does that leave us with. Breaston of Michigan?

 

[Poll]

Paul Williams?

 

[cstjohn17]

that the Pats go after a WR early in the draft again?

Yes, absolutely. The will take a WR on day 1 maybe even in round 1. If some of the juniors declare this could be a deep year for WRs.

Some guys I like (some won't be available or may not declare)
Round 1 - Jarrett (USC, won't be there), Meachem (Tenn, may not declare), Ginn (OSU, an enigma, not sure if he can be an NFL WR), Samardzija (ND, not sold on him), Bowe (LSU)
Round 2 - 3 - Higgins (UTEP, game breaker), Davis (LSU), McKnight (ND) , Stuckney (Clemson), Newton (SC)

 

[mcbee]

that the Pats go after a WR early in the draft again?

I hope not. WR is hit or miss and apparently the Pats aren't good at picking them or their system is too complex for a good combine, production in college to be indicative of future success with the Pats.

This year you have Caldwell, a waiver wire guy, being productive. There always seem to be a ton of guys like him available in later rounds. I think people are oversold on "speed". Chad Johnson didn't run that fast out of college...but plenty of guys who did were busts.

 

[The Gr8est]

Dabruinz, this post isn't really directed at your question of should the Pats be considering drafting a WR with the release of Gabriel. That is a fair question, although how high IS the subject here. This post is directed to anyone who still feels the Pats should be looking to draft a WR in the 1st round, or worse, trade the best part of our draft to move up high and draft a "stud" WR.

Can we finally put to rest any ideas that the Pats should trade up to draft a WR in the 1st round, or that they should draft a WR in the 1st round period?

It is the rare WR who does much in his first year, and a large percentage of highly drafted WRs could be considered busts, WR has one of the highest failure rates of high round draftees.

The following is a list of all 1st round WRs drafted since 2000 (overall in parenthesis) and a few others from later rounds, you can draw your own conclusions.

2000

1(4) Peter Warrick, 1(8) Plaxico Burress, 1(10) Travis Taylor, 1(21) Sylvester Morris, 1(29) R. Jay Soward

3(78) Lavernues Coles, 3(80) Darrell Jackson, 5(153) Dante Hall

2001

1(8) David Terrell, 1(9) Koren Robinson, 1(15) Rod Gardner, 1(16) Santana Moss, 1(25) Freddie Mitchell, 1(30) Reggie Wayne

2(36) Chad Johnson, 4(124) Justin McCareins, 7(204) T.J. Houshmandzadeh

2002

1(13) Dante Stallworth, 1(19) Ashley Lelie, 1(20) Javon Walker,

2(48) Reche Caldwell, 2(65) Deion Branch, 7(253) David Givens

2003

1(2) Charles Rogers, 1(3) Andre Johnson, 1(17) Bryant Johnson,

4(124) Brandon Lloyd, 5(167) Doug Gabriel,

2004

1(3) Larry Fitzgerald, 1(7) Roy Williams, 1(9) Reggie Williams, 1(13) Lee Evans, 1(15) Michael Clayton, 1(29) Michael Jenkins, 1(31) Rashaun Woods

4(108) Jerricho Cotchery, 5(157) D.J. Hackett, 5(164) P.K. Sam, 7(216) Patrick Crayton

2005

1(3) Braylon Edwards, 1(7) Troy Williamson, 1(10) Mike Williams, 1(21) Matt Jones, 1(22) Mark Clayton, 1(27) Roddy White

2006

1(25) Santonio Holmes,

2(36) Chad Jackson, 2(52) Greg Jennings, 7(252) Marques Colston


In another thread someone suggested that the Pats trade up to draft Calvin Johnson. Let’s be conservative and say that he goes top 10, now which of these top 10 WRs since 2000 would you like in return for our choices. At best you get Larry Fitzgerald…would Andre Johnson or Braylon Edwards be a good return for this investment? How about Plaxico Burress?

More likely you get the contacts of Charles Rogers, Peter Warrick, David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Troy Williamson, or Mike Williams.

In fact if you are drafting WR in the 1st round you are more likely to get a guy who can play outside of the top 10, Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, Javon Walker, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, Matt Jones, Mark Clayton. This group is a bit better, but do you still want to trade both #1s for any of these guys?

I wouldn’t, and fortunately I don’t think BB and SP will either. Would you trade a top 20 pick for Deion Branch, at 6 million a year? I wouldn’t, but I’m happy that Seattle would.

I would be surprised if the Pats don’t use their top 3 picks on DB/LB, and stunned if they use one on a WR. We’ve got lots of picks this year, and I think a couple of picks from the 3rd round and later is a good time to take a flyer on WR, and the chance at success is not much worse than a much higher pick.

What we need more than anything at WR is health and reps. Troy Brown is still good because he is not a typical WR prima donna type and has tons of practice with Brady. Even Reggie Wayne took a while to blossom in Indy and I think that is due to reps with Peyton Manning as well as talent. We’re making progress this year just by getting Brady reps with guys who will hopefully be here in future years, like Caldwell, Jackson, and Gaffney. The biggest loss when Branch and Givens left is more related to their familiarity with Brady and the lack of familiar replacements than with actual lost talent, and losing Branch was unexpected this year.

In conclusion if anyone has their heart set on watching the latest hot shot WR wearing the colors of your favorite team then switch to the Lions, they need fans.

I can’t do that, I’m addicted to following a winner.

 

[cstjohn17]

Good post, excellent breakdown and re-cap. Trying to figure out what the Pats will do on draft day is like trying to figure out the injury report. This year could most closely resemble 2001 or 2004, depending on who declares there could be 5 or 6 first round WRs (Johnson, Jarrett, Ginn, Bowe, Samardzija, Meachem). If the class is that strong it is not out of the realm of possibility that they take a WR with one of the picks. I have been hoping for DB/LB for the past 3 years... to no avail.

As much as I like to guess, I agree with others... outside of QB they will take the best players available in round 1. If we do take one lets hope it is Lee Evans not Freddie Mitchell...

Dabruinz, this post isn't really directed at your question of should the Pats be considering drafting a WR with the release of Gabriel. That is a fair question, although how high IS the subject here. This post is directed to anyone who still feels the Pats should be looking to draft a WR in the 1st round, or worse, trade the best part of our draft to move up high and draft a "stud" WR.

Can we finally put to rest any ideas that the Pats should trade up to draft a WR in the 1st round, or that they should draft a WR in the 1st round period?

It is the rare WR who does much in his first year, and a large percentage of highly drafted WRs could be considered busts, WR has one of the highest failure rates of high round draftees.

The following is a list of all 1st round WRs drafted since 2000 (overall in parenthesis) and a few others from later rounds, you can draw your own conclusions.

2000

1(4) Peter Warrick, 1(8) Plaxico Burress, 1(10) Travis Taylor, 1(21) Sylvester Morris, 1(29) R. Jay Soward

3(78) Lavernues Coles, 3(80) Darrell Jackson, 5(153) Dante Hall

2001

1(8) David Terrell, 1(9) Koren Robinson, 1(15) Rod Gardner, 1(16) Santana Moss, 1(25) Freddie Mitchell, 1(30) Reggie Wayne

2(36) Chad Johnson, 4(124) Justin McCareins, 7(204) T.J. Houshmandzadeh

2002

1(13) Dante Stallworth, 1(19) Ashley Lelie, 1(20) Javon Walker,

2(48) Reche Caldwell, 2(65) Deion Branch, 7(253) David Givens

2003

1(2) Charles Rogers, 1(3) Andre Johnson, 1(17) Bryant Johnson,

4(124) Brandon Lloyd, 5(167) Doug Gabriel,

2004

1(3) Larry Fitzgerald, 1(7) Roy Williams, 1(9) Reggie Williams, 1(13) Lee Evans, 1(15) Michael Clayton, 1(29) Michael Jenkins, 1(31) Rashaun Woods

4(108) Jerricho Cotchery, 5(157) D.J. Hackett, 5(164) P.K. Sam, 7(216) Patrick Crayton

2005

1(3) Braylon Edwards, 1(7) Troy Williamson, 1(10) Mike Williams, 1(21) Matt Jones, 1(22) Mark Clayton, 1(27) Roddy White

2006

1(25) Santonio Holmes,

2(36) Chad Jackson, 2(52) Greg Jennings, 7(252) Marques Colston


In another thread someone suggested that the Pats trade up to draft Calvin Johnson. Let’s be conservative and say that he goes top 10, now which of these top 10 WRs since 2000 would you like in return for our choices. At best you get Larry Fitzgerald…would Andre Johnson or Braylon Edwards be a good return for this investment? How about Plaxico Burress?

More likely you get the contacts of Charles Rogers, Peter Warrick, David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Troy Williamson, or Mike Williams.

In fact if you are drafting WR in the 1st round you are more likely to get a guy who can play outside of the top 10, Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, Javon Walker, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, Matt Jones, Mark Clayton. This group is a bit better, but do you still want to trade both #1s for any of these guys?

I wouldn’t, and fortunately I don’t think BB and SP will either. Would you trade a top 20 pick for Deion Branch, at 6 million a year? I wouldn’t, but I’m happy that Seattle would.

I would be surprised if the Pats don’t use their top 3 picks on DB/LB, and stunned if they use one on a WR. We’ve got lots of picks this year, and I think a couple of picks from the 3rd round and later is a good time to take a flyer on WR, and the chance at success is not much worse than a much higher pick.

What we need more than anything at WR is health and reps. Troy Brown is still good because he is not a typical WR prima donna type and has tons of practice with Brady. Even Reggie Wayne took a while to blossom in Indy and I think that is due to reps with Peyton Manning as well as talent. We’re making progress this year just by getting Brady reps with guys who will hopefully be here in future years, like Caldwell, Jackson, and Gaffney. The biggest loss when Branch and Givens left is more related to their familiarity with Brady and the lack of familiar replacements than with actual lost talent, and losing Branch was unexpected this year.

In conclusion if anyone has their heart set on watching the latest hot shot WR wearing the colors of your favorite team then switch to the Lions, they need fans.

I can’t do that, I’m addicted to following a winner.

 

[DaBruinz]

I hope not. WR is hit or miss and apparently the Pats aren't good at picking them or their system is too complex for a good combine, production in college to be indicative of future success with the Pats.

This year you have Caldwell, a waiver wire guy, being productive. There always seem to be a ton of guys like him available in later rounds. I think people are oversold on "speed". Chad Johnson didn't run that fast out of college...but plenty of guys who did were busts.

McBee -
Caldwell wasn't a waiver guy. Shows how much you've been actually following things.

 

[mcbee]

McBee -
Caldwell wasn't a waiver guy. Shows how much you've been actually following things.

He was a UFA? Hmmmm...well they're paying him like a waiver wire guy. Maybe that's why I was confused.

Great post up above about the crap shoot that is high round WRs.

I want to see them sign drew bennett from Tenn. At least he'll be smart enough to learn the system. Former QB for UCLA, IIRC.

 

[patpatriot]

Great analysis...boy it sure is easy swing and whiff in Rd 1 on a WR! Still, you got to address what aills this teams offence. Teams are loading up the box for 2 reasons: our WRs are not quick enough to respond to press coverage/QB blitz techniques (Caldwell is the best). Also, we have no one presently playing that is a must double/deep threat (tho I have hopes for Jackson). Twig was key in that he could fufill both roles. We have been able to compensate somewat in having good TE's who can get down the seam on most Lb/SS. *Most* not all and especially when you get into the Tournament, you are facing teams who can take away this option.

If we had managed to sign the Twig or more importantly Javon Walker we wouldn't have this problem. But we didn't so there we are facing the true Iron of the NFL with a real weakness...not necessarily a fatal weakness but it sure doesn't help.

And I wouldn't get my hopes up too high that time alone will solve this problem, the guys we have are what they are (I mean Troy Brown...come on..not a slam at Troy but he's a shadow of what he used to be.)

So,if the "right" guy is there when we pick in RD 1 who has good value in the Pats evaluation system...I say go for it.