if asante holds out does he come back after week 10, play his 6 games, and then become a free agent next year if NE doesn't franchise him again at a 20% raise? Isn't that what we're talking about here?
If he sat out all season couldn't NE just tag him again next year at 7.8? I don't know a lot about the franchise tag so I'm wondering aloud here.
If a player was actually stupid enough to go this route, he probably would choose not to sign before week 10. Instead, the player would (after week 10) request that an arbitrator find that his hold out caused extreme personal hardship. This is very unlikely to be successful (since the hardship is self-made, and since the player can earn millions of dollars by playing football during the next season), but its a small risk (and distraction) for the team.
In the season after a hold out, the team would no longer be able to use the non-exclusive franchise tag, and the franchise compensation would be reduced to a first round pick and a third round pick.
i think anyone saying that he'd hurt his value by holding out is blowing things greatly out of proportion. if you have talent someone will pay you to play for them.
How do you measure talent? This year Asante is a fifth year player who just had a pro-bowl season. Next year Asante will be a player who had one good season, and is looking to return to the league after an extended absence. Can you name a player who left the league for a year and DIDN'T see his value go way down?
Asante will be employable, just like Ricky Williams is employable. But if he returns after a year absence, he will no longer have an opportunity to get a Nate Clements type of deal.
as for the theory that his value will go down through inactivity, i think he takes a much greater risk of his value going down by not having a season as good as last years. even if he plays well he is not likely to get as many INTs as he got last year.
If Asante is a lousy CB who knows that he will never again have a great year, holding may be a good plan. The value of his next contract may be halved, but he will at least be able to sign for significant guaranteed money (which his new team will immediately regret). But he would have to be a REALLY lousy player for this to make sense since $7.8M is more than half of the guaranteed money he could expect to get in such a scenario.
If Asante is actually this bad a player, a hold out is a good thing for the Patriots, who will save a $7.8M cap hit on a lousy player. We only care about a hold out if Asante is actually a very good player.
If Asante thinks he is a good player he'd be a fool to hold out.
Asante is not a fool.
Asante does not care about principle.
Asante wants to get paid.
This means that Asante will play.
To make the franchise player gambit work, a player has to convince his team that he cares much more about principle than about getting paid. Briggs has done a half way decent job in this regard. If Asante wants to convey this to the Patriots, he should probably start by removing his tatoo.