We're Fine At DT and Against The Run

[mgteich]

Brown and Guy are developing into our solid starters at DT, with Butler and Branch as the other two. Having Valentine as an option in a month is important for the playoffs, especially in case of injury.
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Obviously, the disappointment is the fact that Harris can't move past a mediocre Roberts on the depth chart. Flowers is even OK as an emergency gameday backup LB. I'm OK with Branch diminishing in production. This happens as a players gets older. We certainly have a role for an aging NT, especially in the cold weather against the run.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Malcom Brown probably had his best game. We need him to play like that especially stuffing the run.

 

[RayClay]

Not sure where you get that. 26th in league, allowing 4.7 a carry.

 

[mgteich]

My presumption is Belichick's. The team continues to improve week to week, culminating in a SB quality defense and team.

Your assumption is that the statistical average of the first 6 weeks will continue.

Not sure where you get that. 26th in league, allowing 4.7 a carry.

 

[Ring 6]

Brown and Guy are developing into our solid starters at DT, with Butler and Branch as the other two. Having Valentine as an option in a month is important for the playoffs, especially in case of injury.
===========
Obviously, the disappointment is the fact that Harris can't move past a mediocre Roberts on the depth chart. Flowers is even OK as an emergency gameday backup LB. I'm OK with Branch diminishing in production. This happens as a players gets older. We certainly have a role for an aging NT, especially in the cold weather against the run.

Not sure how we are fine at DT. Branch playing 22 snaps leaves a lot of work for brown who is forced out of position when branch isn't in and guy who has been a JAG.
The run d has been very good the last 2 games but just like a couple of bad games doesn't mean it sucks a couple of good ones doesn't mean it's fixed.
And through the first 4 games the run d was as bad as we have seen here in years.

 

[RayClay]

My presumption is Belichick's. The team continues to improve week to week, culminating in a SB quality defense and team.

Your assumption is that the statistical average of the first 6 weeks will continue.

No, but I never felt Brown and Guy were our best run stoppers. Branch has been. I hope he's back with the program because if we play a run heavy team he is our best run stopper. If not, we're patching IMO.

 

[mgteich]

Not sure how we are fine at DT. Branch playing 22 snaps leaves a lot of work for brown who is forced out of position when branch isn't in and guy who has been a JAG.
The run d has been very good the last 2 games but just like a couple of bad games doesn't mean it sucks a couple of good ones doesn't mean it's fixed.
And through the first 4 games the run d was as bad as we have seen here in years.

fair enough

Obviously, it very difficult to have a run defense with almost all new players. Yes, we can say that is just as reasonable to look at the first 4 games as to look at the last two. For those who believe this analysis, I suggest that they listen to Belichick's tirade with regard to the importance of early play quality.

I suppose, I should have said that we WILL be fine. I agree that we currently have a weakness at NT with Branch continuing to decline and Valentine injured.

But Brown HAS stepped up. And the JAG's (Guy and Butler I presume) seems to be playing reasonably well.

 

[Deus Irae]

My presumption is Belichick's. The team continues to improve week to week, culminating in a SB quality defense and team.

Your assumption is that the statistical average of the first 6 weeks will continue.

Your presumption is making assumptions and ignoring data. How's that any better?

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Not sure how we are fine at DT. Branch playing 22 snaps leaves a lot of work for brown who is forced out of position when branch isn't in and guy who has been a JAG.
The run d has been very good the last 2 games but just like a couple of bad games doesn't mean it sucks a couple of good ones doesn't mean it's fixed.
And through the first 4 games the run d was as bad as we have seen here in years.

One could look at this as the glass is half full. Branch played 0 snaps against Tampa then 22 snaps against the Jets. On this trajectory he will play 100% of snaps before the bye .
Seriously, what happened in Branch's 22 snaps is a BFD. There was an un-nuanced stat that showed in games 1-4 when Branch had been on the field the rush D yard per carry was at its worst. Big question for yesterday: Was Branch playing time a positive for the run D against the Jets?
If Branch's presence on the field against the Jets didn't hurt the run stopping? That's foretelling that he may be turning the corner for 2016 (a healthy scratch last week followed by a good performance this week? IMHO that says something). It also means I think we are in the ballpark of ok at DT. OTOH if Branch's 22 snaps showed the rush D weakened when he was on the field--suggesting he isn't in earshot of turning the corner and still the liability that BB/MP seem to think he is? We are not ok at DT.

 

[Deus Irae]

One could look at this as the glass is half full. Branch played 0 snaps against Tampa then 22 snaps against the Jets. On this trajectory he will play 100% of snaps before the bye .
Seriously, what happened in Branch's 22 snaps is a BFD. There was an un-nuanced stat that showed in games 1-4 when Branch had been on the field the rush D yard per carry was at its worst. Big question for yesterday: Was Branch playing time a positive for the run D against the Jets?
If Branch's presence on the field against the Jets didn't hurt the run stopping? That's foretelling that he may be turning the corner for 2016 (a healthy scratch last week followed by a good performance this week? IMHO that says something). It also means I think we are in the ballpark of ok at DT. OTOH if Branch's 22 snaps showed the rush D weakened when he was on the field--suggesting he isn't in earshot of turning the corner and still the liability that BB/MP seem to think he is? We are not ok at DT.

If Branch can get his fat ass a little (a lot?) less fat, and pull his head out of it, that could be a huge boost to this defense.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

If Branch can get his fat ass a little (a lot?) less fat, and pull his head out of it, that could be a huge boost to this defense.

Any breakdown yet by any pundits of any of the 22 snaps Branch was in on? It will be huge to see if Branch was able to hold the blocks/point of attacks versus being (as is assumed) too heavy->slow to keep himself from being taken/moved out of the "trench".

If it turns out to be the case that he was a + on a majority of the 22? It suggests Branch responded in a positive way to the challenge of his benching(Jenny Craig since his benching ), and you're right that it really is going to be a huge boost to the D.

 

[Deus Irae]

Any breakdown yet by any pundits of any of the 22 snaps Branch was in on?

I haven't seen any, yet.

It will be huge to see if Branch was able to hold the blocks/point of attacks versus being (as is assumed) too heavy->slow to keep himself from being taken/moved out of the "trench".

If it turns out to be the case that he was a + on a majority of the 22? It suggests Branch responded in a positive way to the challenge of his benching(Jenny Craig since his benching ), and you're right that it really is going to be a huge boost to the D.

This team has 2 potential "late additions" for improvement at each defensive level.

DT - Branch getting his act together, possibly VV added to the mix
LB - Hightower getting healthy, possibly McClellin added to the mix
DB - Gilmore grasping, and succeeding within, the system, Butler getting back to being the full Butler

While the defense has not played well, the ability to improve pretty dramatically, rather than just the standard meshing together of a unit, is certainly there.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I haven't seen any, yet.




This team has 2 potential "late additions" for improvement at each defensive level.

DT - Branch getting his act together, possibly VV added to the mix
LB - Hightower getting healthy, possibly McClellin added to the mix
DB - Gilmore grasping, and succeeding within, the system, Butler getting back to being the full Butler

While the defense has not played well, the ability to improve pretty dramatically, rather than just the standard meshing together of a unit, is certainly there.

I'm just not paying attention . Didn't know the outlooks on SM or VV were good enough that their second half returns were even in the 'definite maybe' column (I thought they were unlikely returns). While neither is a show stopper they both may add nicely to spots in need of help.

While the 2017 D, so far, has looked more like the early decade type D (though probably not quite at that level of bad) versus the much improved mid decade type D, this year has hope unlike the early decade. Seeing the groupings all listed out in your post along with the possible additions and realistic possibilities for individual improved play, there's definitely room for optimism that we could end with a top 10 D ((unlike those Ds of the early decade. They just had no real chance of marked improvement and were REALLY tough to watch -- though 2011's D by the end of the season seemed to be executing as well as they were capable of)).

 

[maineman209]

Not sure where you get that. 26th in league, allowing 4.7 a carry.

Week-1 ... #4 KCY: 134.8 yds/gm (Pats allowed 185 yds)
Week-2 ... #14 NOL: 113.8 yds/gm (81 yds)
Week-3 ... #2 HOU: 137.7 yds/gm (125) - running QB
Week-4 ... #22 CAR: 95.5 yds/gm (140) - running QB
Week-5 ... #30 TBY: 82.4 yds/gm (90)
Week-6 ... #18 NYJ: 105.2 yds/gm** (74)

** NYJ avg yds/game is inflated by two breakaway runs (one a total fluke) that accounted for 144 yds in Week-4 vs. JAX. Without those two runs, the Jets are averaging only 81 yds/gm, 31st in the league.

Also bear in mind that the Pats have not been playing with a commanding lead late in games very often so far this season, which has allowed opponents to stay with the run a bit more.

 

[patriot1136]

If Valentine comes back, then who goes off the roster?

 

[Ring 6]

Week-1 ... #4 KCY: 134.8 yds/gm (Pats allowed 185 yds)
Week-2 ... #14 NOL: 113.8 yds/gm (81 yds)
Week-3 ... #2 HOU: 137.7 yds/gm (125) - running QB
Week-4 ... #22 CAR: 95.5 yds/gm (140) - running QB
Week-5 ... #30 TBY: 82.4 yds/gm (90)
Week-6 ... #18 NYJ: 105.2 yds/gm** (74)

** NYJ avg yds/game is inflated by two breakaway runs (one a total fluke) that accounted for 144 yds in Week-4 vs. JAX. Without those two runs, the Jets are averaging only 81 yds/gm, 31st in the league.

Also bear in mind that the Pats have not been playing with a commanding lead late in games very often so far this season, which has allowed opponents to stay with the run a bit more.

You can't discount long runs as if they didn't happen.

 

[Ring 6]

If Valentine comes back, then who goes off the roster?

Langi

 

[mgteich]

Belichick never has trouble finding end of the roster or injured players to cut when we need to bring someone in.

Langi and Harris are obvious choices.

If Valentine comes back, then who goes off the roster?

 

[DSting]

This also depends a bit on your definition of run D. Against traditional runs with a back, jet sweeps, QB scrambles, are all those included in the stat line? Our run D against a back receiving a handoff has been improving dramatically and looked really outstanding in the last game. If we're going to criticize the DT position, are QB scrambles and jet sweeps on them?

 

[BlueThunder]

Langi is lucky to have even survived that crash.....Did he practice since or is he another of the walking wounded and DNP?