It's actually quite amazing we are the favored team considering all the pre-season hype and predictions AND there's only been one game into the season to change people's original opinions.
Now to clarify a couple earlier gambling debates (kinda my thing). Assuming Home Field Advantage is 3pts (but could be 2 to 4 depending on team and stadium), then yes you would expect roughly a 6 point (not 3) swing in the line simply by changing venues.
Also yes, Vegas' ultimate goal is to create equal action, but don't be fooled by such simple semantics. The line IS HIGHLY CORRELATED with actual outcomes. On top of the fact that experts create the lines to begin with, it has been proven that collective human intelligence (the force behind line movements) is keenly aware of inefficiencies. This collective accuracy actually increases when financial gain or other such human motivation is involved. Now, throw in the fact that the NFL betting market is highly liquid, and you have a very good idea -the BEST quick and dirty of any type actually- of the true relative strengths of both teams. Now I will agree that sometimes larger/smaller betting team cities, or trending teams will have a slight artificial impact on the line, but we are looking at +/- a point for all but extreme conditions.
Which brings us back to my first statement. Wow, I can't believe we are favored by 1.5pts on the road. It definitely bodes well for how quickly our "rebuilding" team has been rebuilt. Or maybe how bad the Jets are, but most likely a bit of both.
This is very true, and I'm glad someone clarified exactly what Vegas' role is here. In a perfect world there would be equal betting on both sides, but that rarely happens, and many times the betting is strongly one-sided. That's why usually the point spread reflects not just public perception, but extremely intelligent computer simulations of these games, as well as other factors... for example, last year a famous Vegas odds-maker talked about the unknown factor of Dwight Freeney accounting for 1-1.5 points in the spread, regardless of where the money was coming in.
Vegas is much better off being smarter than every bettor, rather than trying to decipher an irrational wave of public opinion. Their ultimate goal is to find a perfect point spread in which the game is truly 50/50 based on the handicap, where certain unknown variables that are impossible to predict will sway the outcome of the bet. This way it's a coin flip and each bettor should hit 50%, but they have to pay the vig, so Vegas ultimately wins a lot of money. That said, they will adjust the spread if the betting on one side is so very lopsided, in order to hedge their bets, and sometimes that is also because of weekly developments such as injuries or team chemistry.
The line opened at Pats +1, and now it's at Pats -3. You can look at several factors as to why this happened:
-Heavy betting on the Pats (again, this is A factor, but not the only one)
-On Sunday, when the spread opened, Kris Jenkins was probably injured; now he is definitely out for the year
-Darrelle Revis may have a hamstring injury
-Jets media debacle this week, including the sh*t storm on Sanchez, who undoubtedly faces more pressure
-Jets have obviously had some bad practices this week, and Vegas insiders may know something about the locker room atmosphere
-Pats look to be very healthy, and the Fred Taylor injury looks minor now, although it didn't earlier in the week
Anyway, the fact that so many lines move dramatically during the week pretty much disarms the argument that Vegas seeks equal betting. I'm sure they factor that in, but if you look at a lot of the action, you see 80/20 coming in on one team vs. the other. I highly doubt that, if Vegas just studies perception and betting trends, they would be so far off so many times. More than likely, they compromise by setting the actual line, and sometimes slightly adjusting it before its release to brace for uneven betting, but still sticking with their guns with a close-to-perfect coin flip spread.
