Vegas Line Makes Me a Little Nervous

[aluminum seats]

Pats are currently favored by 1.5, which seems absurdly low. I understand the preseason hype of the Jets affected their initial valuation, but coming off that impressive Pats' win and abysmal Jets' loss, you'd expect at least a 3 point line. Seems that Vegas wants Pats' money to come in. Hmmm. Actually, maybe the Jets' fools are still out there. That must be it.

Two other things while I'm at it:

I expect multiple picks from Sanchez this week. Why? He's getting a ton of flak about instantly going to his checkdown receiver. Being called "scared" is a sure fire way to make an insecure guy start slinging it to show he's NOT scared. Wouldn't be surprised if the Jets' first play is the deep ball.

Second, I was thinking about the Pats & Jets offensive & defensive units, and how you'd rate them. Obviously, after one week the Jets' offense is the weakest of the four, by far. Beyond that, how do they rate? I'd say 1) Pats' offense 2) Jets' defense 3) Pats' defense 4) Jets' offense. Actually, I guess it's hard to make an argument for any other order.

 

[Intommywetrst]

Ok, this is not my area of expertise but I BELIEVE that the home team always gets 3 points so we're actually favored by 4.5.

 

[gregz0r]

If it makes you feel any better most sites have them in the 2 - 2.5 range now. I expect it to be around 4 on gameday...

 

[danam404]

Pats are currently favored by 1.5, which seems absurdly low. I understand the preseason hype of the Jets affected their initial valuation, but coming off that impressive Pats' win and abysmal Jets' loss, you'd expect at least a 3 point line. Seems that Vegas wants Pats' money to come in. Hmmm. Actually, maybe the Jets' fools are still out there. That must be it.

Two other things while I'm at it:

I expect multiple picks from Sanchez this week. Why? He's getting a ton of flak about instantly going to his checkdown receiver. Being called "scared" is a sure fire way to make an insecure guy start slinging it to show he's NOT scared. Wouldn't be surprised if the Jets' first play is the deep ball.

Second, I was thinking about the Pats & Jets offensive & defensive units, and how you'd rate them. Obviously, after one week the Jets' offense is the weakest of the four, by far. Beyond that, how do they rate? I'd say 1) Pats' offense 2) Jets' defense 3) Pats' defense 4) Jets' offense. Actually, I guess it's hard to make an argument for any other order.

Didnt we have this thread last week, and a voice of reason explained that vegas lines have nothing to do with who they think will win... but rather public opinion...

:bricks:

 

[SVN]

iam fine with it. everyone is reacting to 1game. for all the bad play by the jets they lost by 1 pt to a very good defensive team. We are not the same defense as balitmore and iam quite sure the jets wont gives 4-5 1st downs via penalties or by 1 of 11 on 3rd down vs us. LT will be able to run the ball on us and its going to be a very close game inspite of what people here think after monday night that we are going to crush them.

just my opinion

 

[Sicilian]

The line really has no direct correlation to who Vegas thinks will win, but more the betting trends. They want as close to a 50/50 spread between the two teams as they can get, because over time that will net them consistent money.

I'd say 1) Pats' offense 2) Jets' defense 3) Pats' defense 4) Jets' offense. Actually, I guess it's hard to make an argument for any other order.

I would put Pats offense as 1a and Jets defense as 1b for now (might change by season's end). They're very close.

 

[SuperPatsFan]

Didnt we have this thread last week, and a voice of reason explained that vegas lines have nothing to do with who they think will win... but rather public opinion...

:bricks:

The lines are determined by money flow -- no more, no less.

 

[aluminum seats]

The lines are determined by money flow -- no more, no less.

Actually, that's not entirely true. Without going too far off topic w/this, for business purposes I've had to deal with the gaming community for a few years, and there are "trap" lines.

 

[danam404]

The lines are determined by money flow -- no more, no less.

public opinion=money flow.. right.

bottom line is vegas doesnt care who wins.

 

[denverpatsfan]

iam fine with it. everyone is reacting to 1game. for all the bad play by the jets they lost by 1 pt to a very good defensive team. We are not the same defense as balitmore and iam quite sure the jets wont gives 4-5 1st downs via penalties or by 1 of 11 on 3rd down vs us. LT will be able to run the ball on us and its going to be a very close game inspite of what people here think after monday night that we are going to crush them.

just my opinion

You are correct sir. gonna be a close game. No way the Jests play as bad or the Pats play as well against that D. Close game means a FG could win it for either team. Wouldn't be surprised if the Jests win their SB against us again.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

The lines are determined by money flow -- no more, no less.

Yup, that explained the obscene 20 point spreads we saw in 2007.....trying to get money on the other side..

 

[Krugman]

Danam (and some others ) is/are correct re the money line in Vegas,it represents what the masses believe will happen,which is often not based in reality.....and thats why the shrewd bettor can take advantage of the point spreads that are out of whack to make a few bucks.....once in a while,anyway!

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I don't think there's anything wrong with this line.

-Pats came into the season as a bubble playoff team, and little is known about Cincy.

-Pats were 8-0 at home and 2-6 on the road last season.

-Last season, despite Welker's absence, Jets 16, Pats 9, in NY.

-Jets defense, realistically, probably won't allow enough points for a blowout.

-Jets offense is at an all-time low. No way it can be any worse, unless INTs start piling up. Even then, they might be better off by at least going for yardage.

-Most of the time these teams play physical games which suggests low-scoring.

-Jets are expected to make the playoffs and have their backs against the wall. This is a desperation game, and they are at home, with the best D in the league.

That said, I wouldn't be shocked if the Pats won by 10-14 points, but I expect this game to end up closer to 17-14, although it will feel like a bigger margin because Jets offense will be inept when they need to pass.

 

[Jackson 2]

For what it's worth, immediately after the Jets' loss on Monday night, the line was the Pats getting 1 point.

 

[fxkane]

Game one might just as easily have been a Jet victory--despite all the penalties and inept offense. And historically these two clubs split the season series, no matter the seeming balance or imbalance in the two teams. A 2 point fave sounds pretty accurate to me

 

[patsfan13]

IIRC the game started out with the Pats GETTING 1.5, if theyt are up1.5 that is 3pt move in the line which is a lot, if it get to 3 for an away game, very unusual.

 

[AzPatsFan]

iam fine with it. everyone is reacting to 1game. for all the bad play by the jets they lost by 1 pt to a very good defensive team. We are not the same defense as balitmore and iam quite sure the jets wont gives 4-5 1st downs via penalties or by 1 of 11 on 3rd down vs us. LT will be able to run the ball on us and its going to be a very close game inspite of what people here think after monday night that we are going to crush them.

just my opinion

And our coaching staff is not dumb enough to continue to run slow developing running plays into the teeth of that Jets run blitz either. It was a comedy of stupid playcalling. Run for nothing, run for half a yard, pass for a FD completion, or draw a PI FD. Repeat, and repeat, half way down the field until a dropped pass on 3rd down ruins the "drive".

The Baltimore Ravens dropped in my estimation as a SB contender. They should have been up 28-9, and would have been, if their coaches weren't completely stupid.

 

[Rob0729]

Hmmmm... Vegas put the line to favor a NY team. Someone alert the media.

Fact of the matter is historically, NY teams get favorable odds in Vegas because they set the line on where they think the betting will go, not who will win. NYers tend to gamble in Vegas than most other places. NYC alne has more people in it than all of New England other than Massachusetts combined. NYC has more people in it than all of Massachusetts.

BTW, on a neutral field, the Pats would be favored by 1.5 points based on this line and if they were at home they would have been favored by 4.5 points based on this line.

 

[Synovia]

And our coaching staff is not dumb enough to continue to run slow developing running plays into the teeth of that Jets run blitz either. It was a comedy of stupid playcalling. Run for nothing, run for half a yard, pass for a FD completion, or draw a PI FD. Repeat, and repeat, half way down the field until a dropped pass on 3rd down ruins the "drive".

The Baltimore Ravens dropped in my estimation as a SB contender. They should have been up 28-9, and would have been, if their coaches weren't completely stupid.

Completely agree. The playcalling was terribly predictable.

 

[Wolfpack]

Pats are currently favored by 1.5, which seems absurdly low. I understand the preseason hype of the Jets affected their initial valuation, but coming off that impressive Pats' win and abysmal Jets' loss, you'd expect at least a 3 point line. Seems that Vegas wants Pats' money to come in. Hmmm.

What "Vegas wants" is what they always want: Equal action on both sides.