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Uncle Heatster's 3/18 7-round mock

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by dryheat44, Apr 18, 2008.

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  1. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    Probably the final one before the draft. I've got the Patriots replenishing their LBs, so take it for what it's worth. Complete mock here: http://www.199overall.com/?q=node/35

    #7 New England trades this pick to Cincinnati for #9 and #77. The Bengals take Sedric Ellis.

    #9 New England trades this pick, along with #129 to Minnesota for #17 and #47. The Vikings take Derrick Harvey

    #17 Quentin Groves OLB Auburn

    #27 San Diego trades this pick to New England for #47 and #62. The Patriots take Antoine Cason CB Arizona

    #69 Eric Young G/T Tennessee

    #77 Josh Barrett S Arizona St

    #94 Dexter Jackson WR Appalachian St

    #164 Stanford Keglar LB Purdue

    #197 Jalen Parmele RB Toledo

    #238 Jeremy Leman ILB Illinois
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2008
  2. SamBamsFan

    SamBamsFan Rookie

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    No Demps. I'm shocked!
    Nice work. You put in great effort into these.
  3. JoePats

    JoePats Rookie

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    Good job dryheat. That's an excellent draft.
  4. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    DryHeat, all my little mental mocks this week have had the Pats maneuvering for 2 picks in the 12-30 range for Groves and Cason. Would love to see it happen.

    I'm struck by how much deeper this year's draft is than last year's, when I sat around glumly contemplating how I didn't like ANYBODY at 24. Groves, Cason, Jarod Mayo and even Jonathan Stewart are all legitimate possibilities in that range this year who would make me happy.
  5. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    That's a lot of trades for your average team, but the Patriots aren't against pulling multiple draft day trades, so this could happen. Some of it goes along with what I've been pondering the past few weeks. Trading down, and picking up an additional pick, then trading up in the back of the first, or the top of the second, would seem like a good idea.

    The other thing I've been trying to figure out is what would be their best trade for future picks? I'm thinking they could trade down, and pick up a mid second rounder, then trade that mid second off to someone else for their 2009 first rounder, or their 2009 second, and 2008 third?
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2008
  6. mike100915

    mike100915 Rookie

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    There is no chance that Quentin Groves is taken by the Patriots in the 1st round. Groves is falling like a ton of bricks. He could very well now be there for their 2nd round pick. Groves doesn't give them great value in the 1st round. He's a bit of a character corcern along with a bit of a injury history.

    Antoine Cason at #27 makes tons of sense, I could see something like that happening. I doubt they would trade back into the first round to get him, but they would in round #2. I believe the Patriots love him.

    On another note, I know it happens alot, but doing mock draft w/trades is kind of foolish. It's too hard to predict. I know that trades will occur, but there too hard to predict. I prefer a regular mock and leave the trades out. That's just me. Good work on the mock though.
  7. mcsully

    mcsully Rookie

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    Pretty decent draft for the pats but looking at the mock draft at 199 i believe there are to many trades.. No way Jets are trading out.. They need a top talent not depth..
    They can't go thru another season where they end up with another top 10 pick in the draft..
  8. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

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    I like the picks, but 2 trades in the top 10 is unlikely. It's rare to have even one trade.
  9. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    I highly doubt Belichick cares if other teams have Groves falling down their boards. If that's his player, he'll take him at the spot that he has him valued at. If it's not at 17, than he won't draft him there. But it absolutely won't be because the scuttlebutt says he's falling.

    It's also hard to imagine a draft without trades. I don't actually expect to get many of these right anyhow, even if I did a no-trade draft, so I'm not worried about hurting my accuracy. And thanks.
  10. mike100915

    mike100915 Rookie

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    What makes you think so much that Belichick want's Groves? Honestly, I haven't seen anything that makes me think they want him so badly. He's a good player, but he has alot of concerns. He seems to be a boom or bust pick. The Patriots typically go safe in the 1st round and I defintely don't believe that Groves is a safe pick by any means. 2nd round Yes, 1st round No Way
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2008
  11. The Hurricane

    The Hurricane Rookie

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    a) we've had him in for a private visit and a private workout
    and b) We are picking 2 first rounders in this scenario and Cason seems like a very safe corner pick so the fact that Groves has questionmarks isn't as worrisome.
  12. mike100915

    mike100915 Rookie

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    They've had tons of players in for a visit. They never had Laurence Maroney in for a visit, or even talked to him before they picked him. I also don't believe they ever had Logan Mankins in for a visit either.

    As for Groves, the last I have heard everyone has him falling. Mel Kiper things he's a 3rd round pick now, and PFW has him falling as well. Listen, I like the the guy alittle bit, think he could be pretty good, but he won't be a 1st round pick, especially for the Patriots.
  13. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    I would add:

    Very productive player in elite conference
    Played through serious injuries
    Defensive Captain

    There's really not much NOT to like about him. The toes are not likely to be chronic, the heart thing isn't a rare condition, (although if he were to fall this would be why), I don't get the viewpoint that he's lazy or took plays off, because I never saw it.
  14. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Really? Groves is falling like a ton of bricks? Where did you get that from?

    There are quite a few players who have an injury history in this draft. Groves injuries are less concerning than many of the other players. He dislocated 3 toes and basically tried to play through them. What other "injury history" are you referring to?

    What "character concerns" are there? The fact that his neighbors called the cops when he and his wife had a loud argument? Are you saying that husbands and wives who have arguments are bad people? Or the fact that he was driving on a suspended license and without insurance?


    I agree. I have liked Cason the entire time. Over such names as McKelvin, DRC, and Jenkins.
  15. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    This is such garbage. Groves has less concerns than Dorsey, Ellis, or DRC.

    Groves isn't a "BOOM or BUST" pick as you claim.

    The fact that you haven't "seen anything that makes you think they want him so badly" is probably why Groves is higher on their chart than people think. The Pats RARELY tip their hand.

    Honestly, I'd love for BB and Pioli to release their 2001 draft board just so that we could all be blown away by how they rated players.
  16. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

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    Cousin,
    Love your draft. Thank you for sharing it with us. Have to agree about Groves though. He is not a first round guy now. At #17 you might can still get Rivers. If you look in front of #17 there are not too many takers for an OLB after the Bengals who need DL help and past #17 like the Steelers and the Giants. The Jets won't take Rivers at #6 either. The Panthers? Maybe. As a fall back, how about Dan Connor? He can play in and out and is BB type cerebral. He is very much under the radar. As far as #69 for Young. I think it is too high. I like Duane Brown for VA Tech or even swing to DL depth and grab Trevor Laws and see perhaps a OT like John Greco from Toledo later on.

    I still see a good value in a trade with the Falcons at #7. The Falcons need a QB . They do not have one. Arthur Blanks wants Ryan and the new coaching staff wants a starting O-lineman or D-Lineman. I agree with Blanks. Ryan made a mediocre B.C. team look pretty decent this year. He can upgrade the Falcons. But in the following scenario that can have their cake and eat it too because of their many choices. They scoop Ryan at #3 before the Chiefs. Now Atlanta gets our #7 for two of the three of their second Round choices of #34 and #37 picks, their Round four #103 and next year, the Falcons 2009 Round three choice. The value numbers work. The Falcons can get OT Alberts or the remaining DT of Dorsey or Ellis then at #7. The Falcons still have many other draft choices including another round two choice.

    The Pats can still get a great CB (Cason) and maybe Avril (or Groves and the end of two) or even trade to go back into round one if Rivers lingers.

    From #77 on you are dead-on (Maybe S.C.'s Cory Boyd for Parmele? Better hands).
    DW Toys
  17. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    The Pats had scouted Maroney very heavily and they did talk to him at the combine. The Pats also were out to visit Mankins.


    The last you heard? Really? That's funny because neither NFLDraftScout.com nor NFLDraftCountdown.com has Groves falling. Both have him as a mid to low 1st/High 2nd pick. As for what Kiper thinks, Kiper is one of the worst when it comes to predictions. And I can't remember a time when he actually got a Pats pick correct in his mocks.
  18. mike100915

    mike100915 Rookie

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    Greg (Iowa): Love your work Mel! Do you think the 49ers would be reaching if they took Groves with their late 1st round pick? Thanks!

    Mel Kiper: A little bit. He is more of a mid to late second round guy. Another guy who could be interesting for them is LB Cliff Avril from Purdue, who has really risen in the last few weeks.

    Als, look at PFW list they have him falling out of round 2
  19. mike100915

    mike100915 Rookie

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    Last edited: Apr 18, 2008
  20. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Why would I look at PFW? They mean NOTHING. The Patriots have their OWN scouting. They don't listen to people like Kiper or PFW. So, to attempt to use PFW and Kiper as a gauge for the Pats is a fallacy on your part.

    Just as a reminder, Kiper and PFW both said that the Pats screwed up and reached taking Mankins at 32. Mankins is damn near an ALL-PRO guard. Not the level of Hannah, but he's getting there.
  21. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

  22. mike100915

    mike100915 Rookie

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    So DaBruinz, do you just pick and choose what publication fits your arguement? I'm not saying he's a bad player, but he won't be a First Round pick. And the Patriots selecting in round 1 at #17, NO WAY!

    I bet he will not be a First Round Pick. I'd defintely take him in round 2.
  23. mike100915

    mike100915 Rookie

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    Of course Mel Kiper, PFW, NFLDraftCountdown have no bearing on the Patriots picks. However, they have good insight and show you were a player may land. Also, PFW has good news on players who are falling. And most now say that Groves is falling fast.

    No teams listen to any of these publications. (I hope) But, the fact of the matter is Groves IS falling. I don't see eveyone's infatuation with him.
  24. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I know that a lot of people feel this way, but I feel exactly the opposite. Insisting on no trades in a mock makes the whole thing feel like a totally artificial exercise to me.

    Last year 10 of the first-round picks were made by teams other than the original pick holder -- some pre-draft trades, some draft-day. Trades are a very real part of the draft. I don't see the logic in saying "trades are too hard to predict, so I'm going to predict something I know won't happen instead." Making up a no-trade rule doesn't make any more sense to me than inventing any other fake rule that takes your mock one step farther from reality. Why should we have to pretend that the Pats would take somebody like Branden Albert at #7 when it's much more likely that they'd trade down?
  25. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    Thank you. Personally, I'd rather have Groves than Rivers. What we need more than anything is a terror coming off the edge. That's Groves. I'm also not sold on Rivers. I have a hard time separating him from the other great players in that USC front 7: Maulauga, Cushing, Ellis, Williams, Jackson. I like Connor OK, he wouldn't be my preference though unless he really, really slipped...third round slippage. I do like all the linemen you mention, but if anything, I think Young is undervalued. Last year, he was regarded as a possible first round pick. He can play all G & T spots, and if not for his injury, he'd almost certainly be the second guard off the board.

    The problem I have in this is that the first pick isn't until #34. In that position, we could be forced to trade up to get an impact player Belichick wants, and that's not always a given. I don't care much that the value squares.....in theory, Atlanta could trade us 600 7th round picks and the value would be square. It would still be a terrible trade. If Atlanta wants #7, the conversation starts at one of their second round picks and their first rounder next year. I would need more, though, if I was in Belichick's shoes.

    I think we're less likely to draft a pass-catching back, and more about a bruising type. I think of the two, Parmele's the bruiser. The other one I considered is Xavier Omon. Small school bowling ball with amazing productivity. What scared me off him is his four years starting. That's a lot of hits for the body to absorb walking into your rookie year. Good discussion, thanks.
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2008
  26. PatsandTrojans55

    PatsandTrojans55 Rookie

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    Some FYI on Groves.

    Groves is in the same range he has always been and that's 18-30 of round 1. Nothing has change but the press coverage. First, he started RISING after an impressive combine and pro day workout. Partly because he's a Pass-Rush OLB and that is a thinner postion with respect to this draft and since the Super Bowl, EVERY Team is all the sudden going crazy for pass rushers as oppose to any other year.(Sarcasm) So to the media and so called experts he was rising. Now, they get a report about his surgery for his heart and all the sudden he's falling. What is happening is the talking heads and so-call draft experts (I.E. Mel Kiper's of the world) act like they have all these sources and just discovered something on these kids but this particular thing has been know for at least two months now. They report things like they have an inside scoop but the truth is they find out when some "insider" is ready to leak the information that most people already know.

    Groves, is high on some teams boards and low on others but that was determined by interviews, private workouts and flaws that stick out in film study. He was and always has been a 18-30 1st rounder in this draft.

    PT55
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2008
  27. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    xxxxxxxxxxxx
  28. ALP

    ALP Rookie

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    i LOVE ur first 4 lines...after that not so much

    i like goff, chris johnson especially
  29. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    This is an excellent point. The Pats don't subscribe to the NFL generic cheese whiz scouting factories.

    This means the Pats really are starting from scratch and targeting players that fit their scheme. So the draft "gurus" pan the Pats draft picks, but all we do is keep winning.

    And this is why losers like Mel Diaper, fired as a Baltimore scout years ago, don't understand why BB drafts as he does. Diaper looks at the player as if in a generic 4-3 defense. BB looks at a player as fitting into HIS defense. So while Diaper will have a 6'0" 210 ILB rated very highly, that same player won't be on BB's draft baord and Diaper can not understand why BB doesn;t draft that player.
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2008
  30. PatsandTrojans55

    PatsandTrojans55 Rookie

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    *Prospect watch*

    Some people had this guy as a late round sleeper and mentioned him sometime ago. However, he is moving up alot of boards lately after private workouts and interviews.

    Rutgers G/T- Jeremy Zuttah.

    Alot of recon on O-Line for the Pats and this was a name that was brought up recently with the terms "Versatility, Durability, Intelligence, Leadership" thrown around. Thoughts are was a possible 4th to 5th, now will be (to some teams) early 3rd maybe mid-second but not getting past the 3rd.

    PT55
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2008
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