Uncle Heatster's 3/18 7-round mock

[dryheat44]

Probably the final one before the draft. I've got the Patriots replenishing their LBs, so take it for what it's worth. Complete mock here: http://www.199overall.com/?q=node/35

#7 New England trades this pick to Cincinnati for #9 and #77. The Bengals take Sedric Ellis.

#9 New England trades this pick, along with #129 to Minnesota for #17 and #47. The Vikings take Derrick Harvey

#17 Quentin Groves OLB Auburn

#27 San Diego trades this pick to New England for #47 and #62. The Patriots take Antoine Cason CB Arizona

#69 Eric Young G/T Tennessee

#77 Josh Barrett S Arizona St

#94 Dexter Jackson WR Appalachian St

#164 Stanford Keglar LB Purdue

#197 Jalen Parmele RB Toledo

#238 Jeremy Leman ILB Illinois

 

[SamBamsFan]

No Demps. I'm shocked!
Nice work. You put in great effort into these.

 

[JoePats]

Good job dryheat. That's an excellent draft.

 

[patchick]

DryHeat, all my little mental mocks this week have had the Pats maneuvering for 2 picks in the 12-30 range for Groves and Cason. Would love to see it happen.

I'm struck by how much deeper this year's draft is than last year's, when I sat around glumly contemplating how I didn't like ANYBODY at 24. Groves, Cason, Jarod Mayo and even Jonathan Stewart are all legitimate possibilities in that range this year who would make me happy.

 

[sebman2112]

That's a lot of trades for your average team, but the Patriots aren't against pulling multiple draft day trades, so this could happen. Some of it goes along with what I've been pondering the past few weeks. Trading down, and picking up an additional pick, then trading up in the back of the first, or the top of the second, would seem like a good idea.

The other thing I've been trying to figure out is what would be their best trade for future picks? I'm thinking they could trade down, and pick up a mid second rounder, then trade that mid second off to someone else for their 2009 first rounder, or their 2009 second, and 2008 third?

 

[mike100915]

There is no chance that Quentin Groves is taken by the Patriots in the 1st round. Groves is falling like a ton of bricks. He could very well now be there for their 2nd round pick. Groves doesn't give them great value in the 1st round. He's a bit of a character corcern along with a bit of a injury history.

Antoine Cason at #27 makes tons of sense, I could see something like that happening. I doubt they would trade back into the first round to get him, but they would in round #2. I believe the Patriots love him.

On another note, I know it happens alot, but doing mock draft w/trades is kind of foolish. It's too hard to predict. I know that trades will occur, but there too hard to predict. I prefer a regular mock and leave the trades out. That's just me. Good work on the mock though.

 

[mcsully]

Pretty decent draft for the pats but looking at the mock draft at 199 i believe there are to many trades.. No way Jets are trading out.. They need a top talent not depth..
They can't go thru another season where they end up with another top 10 pick in the draft..

 

[WhiZa]

I like the picks, but 2 trades in the top 10 is unlikely. It's rare to have even one trade.

 

[dryheat44]

There is no chance that Quentin Groves is taken by the Patriots in the 1st round. Groves is falling like a ton of bricks. He could very well now be there for their 2nd round pick. Groves doesn't give them great value in the 1st round. He's a bit of a character corcern along with a bit of a injury history.

I highly doubt Belichick cares if other teams have Groves falling down their boards. If that's his player, he'll take him at the spot that he has him valued at. If it's not at 17, than he won't draft him there. But it absolutely won't be because the scuttlebutt says he's falling.

On another note, I know it happens alot, but doing mock draft w/trades is kind of foolish. It's too hard to predict. I know that trades will occur, but there too hard to predict. I prefer a regular mock and leave the trades out. That's just me. Good work on the mock though.

It's also hard to imagine a draft without trades. I don't actually expect to get many of these right anyhow, even if I did a no-trade draft, so I'm not worried about hurting my accuracy. And thanks.

 

[mike100915]

What makes you think so much that Belichick want's Groves? Honestly, I haven't seen anything that makes me think they want him so badly. He's a good player, but he has alot of concerns. He seems to be a boom or bust pick. The Patriots typically go safe in the 1st round and I defintely don't believe that Groves is a safe pick by any means. 2nd round Yes, 1st round No Way

 

[The Hurricane]

a) we've had him in for a private visit and a private workout
and b) We are picking 2 first rounders in this scenario and Cason seems like a very safe corner pick so the fact that Groves has questionmarks isn't as worrisome.

 

[mike100915]

a) we've had him in for a private visit and a private workout
and b) We are picking 2 first rounders in this scenario and Cason seems like a very safe corner pick so the fact that Groves has questionmarks isn't as worrisome.

They've had tons of players in for a visit. They never had Laurence Maroney in for a visit, or even talked to him before they picked him. I also don't believe they ever had Logan Mankins in for a visit either.

As for Groves, the last I have heard everyone has him falling. Mel Kiper things he's a 3rd round pick now, and PFW has him falling as well. Listen, I like the the guy alittle bit, think he could be pretty good, but he won't be a 1st round pick, especially for the Patriots.

 

[dryheat44]

a) we've had him in for a private visit and a private workout
and b) We are picking 2 first rounders in this scenario and Cason seems like a very safe corner pick so the fact that Groves has questionmarks isn't as worrisome.

I would add:

Very productive player in elite conference
Played through serious injuries
Defensive Captain

There's really not much NOT to like about him. The toes are not likely to be chronic, the heart thing isn't a rare condition, (although if he were to fall this would be why), I don't get the viewpoint that he's lazy or took plays off, because I never saw it.

 

[DaBruinz]

There is no chance that Quentin Groves is taken by the Patriots in the 1st round. Groves is falling like a ton of bricks. He could very well now be there for their 2nd round pick. Groves doesn't give them great value in the 1st round. He's a bit of a character corcern along with a bit of a injury history.

Really? Groves is falling like a ton of bricks? Where did you get that from?

There are quite a few players who have an injury history in this draft. Groves injuries are less concerning than many of the other players. He dislocated 3 toes and basically tried to play through them. What other "injury history" are you referring to?

What "character concerns" are there? The fact that his neighbors called the cops when he and his wife had a loud argument? Are you saying that husbands and wives who have arguments are bad people? Or the fact that he was driving on a suspended license and without insurance?

Antoine Cason at #27 makes tons of sense, I could see something like that happening. I doubt they would trade back into the first round to get him, but they would in round #2. I believe the Patriots love him.

I agree. I have liked Cason the entire time. Over such names as McKelvin, DRC, and Jenkins.

 

[DaBruinz]

What makes you think so much that Belichick want's Groves? Honestly, I haven't seen anything that makes me think they want him so badly. He's a good player, but he has alot of concerns. He seems to be a boom or bust pick. The Patriots typically go safe in the 1st round and I defintely don't believe that Groves is a safe pick by any means. 2nd round Yes, 1st round No Way

This is such garbage. Groves has less concerns than Dorsey, Ellis, or DRC.

Groves isn't a "BOOM or BUST" pick as you claim.

The fact that you haven't "seen anything that makes you think they want him so badly" is probably why Groves is higher on their chart than people think. The Pats RARELY tip their hand.

Honestly, I'd love for BB and Pioli to release their 2001 draft board just so that we could all be blown away by how they rated players.

 

[DW Toys]

Probably the final one before the draft. I've got the Patriots replenishing their LBs, so take it for what it's worth. Complete mock here: http://www.199overall.com/?q=node/35

#7 New England trades this pick to Cincinnati for #9 and #77. The Bengals take Sedric Ellis.

#9 New England trades this pick, along with #129 to Minnesota for #17 and #47. The Vikings take Derrick Harvey

#17 Quentin Groves OLB Auburn

#27 San Diego trades this pick to New England for #47 and #62. The Patriots take Antoine Cason CB Arizona

#69 Eric Young G/T Tennessee

#77 Josh Barrett S Arizona St

#94 Dexter Jackson WR Appalachian St

#164 Stanford Keglar LB Purdue

#197 Jalen Parmele RB Toledo

#238 Jeremy Leman ILB Illinois

Cousin,
Love your draft. Thank you for sharing it with us. Have to agree about Groves though. He is not a first round guy now. At #17 you might can still get Rivers. If you look in front of #17 there are not too many takers for an OLB after the Bengals who need DL help and past #17 like the Steelers and the Giants. The Jets won't take Rivers at #6 either. The Panthers? Maybe. As a fall back, how about Dan Connor? He can play in and out and is BB type cerebral. He is very much under the radar. As far as #69 for Young. I think it is too high. I like Duane Brown for VA Tech or even swing to DL depth and grab Trevor Laws and see perhaps a OT like John Greco from Toledo later on.

I still see a good value in a trade with the Falcons at #7. The Falcons need a QB . They do not have one. Arthur Blanks wants Ryan and the new coaching staff wants a starting O-lineman or D-Lineman. I agree with Blanks. Ryan made a mediocre B.C. team look pretty decent this year. He can upgrade the Falcons. But in the following scenario that can have their cake and eat it too because of their many choices. They scoop Ryan at #3 before the Chiefs. Now Atlanta gets our #7 for two of the three of their second Round choices of #34 and #37 picks, their Round four #103 and next year, the Falcons 2009 Round three choice. The value numbers work. The Falcons can get OT Alberts or the remaining DT of Dorsey or Ellis then at #7. The Falcons still have many other draft choices including another round two choice.

The Pats can still get a great CB (Cason) and maybe Avril (or Groves and the end of two) or even trade to go back into round one if Rivers lingers.

From #77 on you are dead-on (Maybe S.C.'s Cory Boyd for Parmele? Better hands).
DW Toys

 

[DaBruinz]

They've had tons of players in for a visit. They never had Laurence Maroney in for a visit, or even talked to him before they picked him. I also don't believe they ever had Logan Mankins in for a visit either.

The Pats had scouted Maroney very heavily and they did talk to him at the combine. The Pats also were out to visit Mankins.

As for Groves, the last I have heard everyone has him falling. Mel Kiper things he's a 3rd round pick now, and PFW has him falling as well. Listen, I like the the guy alittle bit, think he could be pretty good, but he won't be a 1st round pick, especially for the Patriots.

The last you heard? Really? That's funny because neither NFLDraftScout.com nor NFLDraftCountdown.com has Groves falling. Both have him as a mid to low 1st/High 2nd pick. As for what Kiper thinks, Kiper is one of the worst when it comes to predictions. And I can't remember a time when he actually got a Pats pick correct in his mocks.

 

[mike100915]

Greg (Iowa): Love your work Mel! Do you think the 49ers would be reaching if they took Groves with their late 1st round pick? Thanks!

Mel Kiper: A little bit. He is more of a mid to late second round guy. Another guy who could be interesting for them is LB Cliff Avril from Purdue, who has really risen in the last few weeks.

Als, look at PFW list they have him falling out of round 2

 

[mike100915]

The Pats had scouted Maroney very heavily and they did talk to him at the combine. The Pats also were out to visit Mankins.


He met with one scout. Period.

It wasnt even a interview and it was just some quick questions.

He was never invited to Gillette never had a personal workout, he was surprised when the patriots called him at 21 and selected him.

He never thought he would have been drafted by new england.

Per SeanBruschi

Just watched the video on Patriots today where he said he never saw it coming.


Just goes to show you that sometimes Patriots will pick a guy out of left field even if they havnt even talked to him.

 

[DaBruinz]

Greg (Iowa): Love your work Mel! Do you think the 49ers would be reaching if they took Groves with their late 1st round pick? Thanks!

Mel Kiper: A little bit. He is more of a mid to late second round guy. Another guy who could be interesting for them is LB Cliff Avril from Purdue, who has really risen in the last few weeks.

Als, look at PFW list they have him falling out of round 2

Why would I look at PFW? They mean NOTHING. The Patriots have their OWN scouting. They don't listen to people like Kiper or PFW. So, to attempt to use PFW and Kiper as a gauge for the Pats is a fallacy on your part.

Just as a reminder, Kiper and PFW both said that the Pats screwed up and reached taking Mankins at 32. Mankins is damn near an ALL-PRO guard. Not the level of Hannah, but he's getting there.