Trade Down and Draft Richard Marshall

[marcus]

Good value for Marshall at end of first or top of second. Not at 21.
Pick up extra pick(s) which could start a flurry of trades for higher or extra picks in mid rounds.

I theory could have 2 2nds (first one at top of second for Marshall)
3 3rds and two 4ths.

This would work out great for this drft where the value lies in rounds 2-4.

 

[spacecrime]

Good value for Marshall at end of first or top of second. Not at 21.
Pick up extra pick(s) which could start a flurry of trades for higher or extra picks in mid rounds.

I theory could have 2 2nds (first one at top of second for Marshall)
3 3rds and two 4ths.

This would work out great for this drft where the value lies in rounds 2-4.

I think Marshall will go in Round One.

This is where Rookboston's clumping theory works great. Say the pats feel that Hill, Marshall and another CB (Cromartie?) are all of equal value. If at least two are avaialble they trade down. When the next to last of the CBs they've selected is taken, they immediately trade up and take the last one.

This is what they did with Eugene Wilson. They traded out of the first round, and whe Charles Tillman was selected, they traded up and took Wilson with the next pick.

 

[patchick]

I theory could have 2 2nds (first one at top of second for Marshall)
3 3rds and two 4ths.

Worth keeping in mind that the top-of-the-2nd pick can only be signed for 4 years now. Makes trading out of the 1st less attractive than it used to be.

 

[usmcmgb]

Draft Richard Marshall

The way that Marshall's stock is rising, he'll be gone by the top of the second round. Seems that as soon as the rest of the league gets wind of somebody that BB and SP are interested in (or rumored to be interested in) their stock goes up like a rocket. He looked good as a mid second rounder a few weeks ago but now it's looking like he'll be gone about the time that the Pats draft (early to mid 20's). Get him then or forever hold your peace.

 

[Feep_FLA]

Relax, BB/SP will use 21if the guy they really want is there. I like the trade down choice also so long as it gains us an early 2nd pick and I think its a possibilty. We have 11 picks and are well-positioned. I think we're all gonna love the 2006 draft class for years to come! IMHO :rocker:

 

[tombonneau]

Relax, BB/SP will use 21if the guy they really want is there. I like the trade down choice also so long as it gains us an early 2nd pick and I think its a possibilty. We have 11 picks and are well-positioned. I think we're all gonna love the 2006 draft class for years to come! IMHO :rocker:

Recent mock I saw had us taking him at #21. His stock has risen to end of 1st I think. If BB wants him, he'll have to pull the trigger at 21 IMO.

 

[maverick4]

re

No thanks.

I think he's good, but not that good. I don't want BB to take him earlier than his talent level, which is approximately the 2nd to 3rd round.

 

[tombonneau]

No thanks.

I think he's good, but not that good. I don't want BB to take him earlier than his talent level, which is approximately the 2nd to 3rd round.

Just curious, what are you basing this on? Not trying to be a wisea**, but wondering if you actually saw a lot of Fresno St. games or just basing this on highlight reels.

Bottom line, is his "real" value among draftniks (FWIW) has him creeping into the first round. Whether or not this is tanamount to NFL GMs values remains to be seen. If BB/SP value him as at #21 as the pick, I'm fine with it. Their recent history of "reaches" is pretty good, with I think maybe Bethel being the only exception I can think of.

 

[Pats726]

No thanks.

I think he's good, but not that good. I don't want BB to take him earlier than his talent level, which is approximately the 2nd to 3rd round.

I almost wonder if BB doesn't put things out like that..as smokescreens..so as to confuse other teams..that way, they bite move up and may take a player at a higher place then they should..Just wonder about how much is really true...And if that happens, a player drops..

 

[maverick4]

re

Just curious, what are you basing this on? Not trying to be a wisea**, but wondering if you actually saw a lot of Fresno St. games or just basing this on highlight reels.

Bottom line, is his "real" value among draftniks (FWIW) has him creeping into the first round. Whether or not this is tanamount to NFL GMs values remains to be seen. If BB/SP value him as at #21 as the pick, I'm fine with it. Their recent history of "reaches" is pretty good, with I think maybe Bethel being the only exception I can think of.

I've spent a lot of time watching film on players as well as packaged clips. But it's still just my opinion. I have been dead wrong before - for example, I thought Rashaun Woods would be a great player.

In general though, I am against drafting for any specific player. I like rookBoston's value grouping theory, and I think that is the best way to get the most value from every pick in a draft. This philosophy goes after the last players in a similarly grouped talent level, and doesn't chase after high-rising guys like Marshall if there are other corners left on the board.

As for reaching, I don't think the Pats ever reach for a player. I think Logan Mankins was the last (and maybe only) T/G of that talent level, so they pulled the trigger. Same with Bethel. Other people may call it reaching, but it is not,because it's not about going after any specific player.

 

[dryheat44]

I almost wonder if BB doesn't put things out like that..as smokescreens..so as to confuse other teams..that way, they bite move up and may take a player at a higher place then they should..Just wonder about how much is really true...And if that happens, a player drops..

All the time. Just when the rest of the league finally figures out the answers, Belichick and Pioli change the questions.

 

[maverick4]

re

I almost wonder if BB doesn't put things out like that..as smokescreens..so as to confuse other teams..that way, they bite move up and may take a player at a higher place then they should..Just wonder about how much is really true...And if that happens, a player drops..

Without question. You are talking about a guy who messes with the weekly injury report in order to gain any kind of slight advantage. I wouldn't put it past Bill to think, for example, that there were 4 players in a position he liked, but that in order for one of them to fall to his draft spot, he'd have to build up interest in another random player in order to fool other teams.

Or, I think BB could bring in players he probably won't draft, but have question marks that he wants filled for his huge player database. That way, he has more information down the road to make decisions if that player is ever released or a free agent.

I've been suspecting some similar gamesmanship from the Titans for the draft. It wouldn't surprise me if Norm Chow intentionally hyped up Jay Cutler at the senior bowl, so that the Jets wouldn't feel the need to trade up to #2 for Leinart.