TQBR Leaders Week 2 - Attack of the Fraudulent Stats

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by RodThePat, Sep 19, 2011.

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  1. RodThePat

    RodThePat In the Starting Line-Up

    So ESPN just unveiled their top week 2 performers according to TQBR.

    NFL - Week 2 Total QBR Leaders - ESPN

    And it has Matt Hasselbeck and Jason Campbell ahead of Brady. Really, how much credit can anyone give to this? It was supposed to dethrone passer rating whilst inserting a system that accurately calculated the value of a QB in a given game, but...Jesus...
  2. BradyManny

    BradyManny Pro Bowl Player

    Still beats PFF. That doesn't say much, naturally.

    All I know is those first two games by Brady were about as dominant I've ever seen anyone play this game, including the absurd 2007 stretch.
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2011
  3. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady In the Starting Line-Up

    All you need to know is Eli Manning was 7th in the league last year after throwing 25 interceptions.
  4. BSR

    BSR In the Starting Line-Up

    If you look at the overall season leaders Tom is number 1. I'd give it a bit more time before dismissing it. Sometimes individual weeks will produce strange results. What matters more is the overall. That is what will tell you if a stat is truly meaningful or not.
  5. RodThePat

    RodThePat In the Starting Line-Up

    TQBR sucks because it fails exactly at what it intends to get right: evaluate a QB's contribution to the team's performance. By inserting a series of seemingly random subjective elements in its formula, and attributing different weights to each element in its calculation, the end result is, often times, just a mess.

    It simply gives too much credit to QB's that are constantly trailing, or playing in close games, while undervaluing guys who build early leads and cruise from there.
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2011
  6. billdog3484

    billdog3484 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    TQBR, in my opinion, will never be an accurate assessor of a QB. you simply cannot have a subjective component to a statistic.
  7. drew4008

    drew4008 In the Starting Line-Up

    I don't like it either, but FWIW:

    NFL - The Total QBR FAQ - ESPN
  8. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    This sux more than the existing QB rating system, too subjective and the categories are confusing.. epic fail.

    The current NFL Passer rating system has Brady, Rodgers, Brees and Stafford which is probably more accurate than the other system..

    Campbell is @ 10 and Hasselbeck is rated @12..

    Last edited: Sep 19, 2011
  9. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The point of the new system is that it's supposed to eliminate strange results. If it's not doing that, it's not doing its job.

    As complicated as it is, if it's not doing its job, what good is it?
  10. BSR

    BSR In the Starting Line-Up

    Like all statistics, it is just another data point. There is never any one tell all statistic especially in a team sport like football. Personally, I like the job Football Outsiders does, but I don't take any one statistic as gospel.
  11. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I understand, but ESPN is touting it as something it's not. That's as bad as what PFF does, but it's got the power of the worldwide leader behind it, which makes it more problematic.

    They need to fix it or get rid of it.
  12. The Scrizz

    The Scrizz 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    #11 Jersey

    They should either take a page from advanced baseball metrics that attempt to normalize things like ballpark and defense or just treat every incomplete pass the same.

    You can't have a subjective component (no matter how great they think their system is). I can easily call the dropped pass component subjective without feeling cynical at all. Having it judged by humans is the very definition of subjective. As soon as someone has to interpret what has happened it is no longer objective.

    And every game is done twice to reconcile inconsistencies? Twice? I understand that by the very nature of football, all eleven players contributing in some way to every play, it makes it hard to quantify an individual's contribution.

    So if you can't do it just say you can't do it and spare me the crap masquerading as statistical analysis because it is embarrassing.
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