Time to get serious about JJ Watt

[supafly]

Watt is not the flavor of the month. He is the 2011 binky of this board, the 2011 Connor Barwin.

In any case, I don't expect the patriots to trade up high enough to get Watt or for him to reach 17.

BTW, I find it even strange to consider Belichick trading up to take a Condon client in the middle of a labor negotiations and the strong possibility that they would have to negotiate with Condon or his lackeys.

Yes, if Watt fell into Belichick's hands, he would likely take him (but probaly not instead of Jordan). I would note that, FWIW, Rob Rang and Chad Reuter over at CBSSports both have Watt available to us at 17; and both of them had us passing on Watt (for Jordan and Smith).

I agree with all of these statements, and you have provided reasons as to why I agree that he will NOT be a NE Patriot this year. None of them have anything to do with his talent level, I just do not believe he is a good fit due to many of these reasons.

 

[Fencer]

If one reads Rob Rang it's tough not to get excited about Watt.

As for the agent -- just how much harm can an agent do? Would Condon advise Watt into some kind of client-harming Brady Quinn holdout just to prove a point vs. the Pats?

 

[jays52]

The writers who look at Watt's performance nearing the end of his senior season and say that he can't handle the run simply don't know what they are looking at. Watt plays against spread teams that frequently run the zone read option. In this play, the quarterback (from the gun with the back next to him) reads the backside end as they run a zone play on the line. If the backside end crashes, the quarterback keeps and sprints off the backside tackle who will easily wash the end. This is defended with a backside concept called double anal. What?!? Crap. I mean the scrape exchange. In the scrape exchange the end crashes and the backside backer fills the contain void by looping outside the crashing end. As we can see, Watt's responsibility is the crash and offer himself up to the tackle. If the QB keeps Watt looks like he is washed. If he keeps scraping and makes a play, he is labeledas an over-aggressive shooter.

I see a lot written about how he stuggles against doubleteams. It's pretty hard to double a guy from the spread when you're playing backside safety games with trips. In the rare circumstances they actually use a TE as their Y and try a quick toss, of course he's going to get cracked as the EMOS. Nobody beats that unless they get an insane read an get upfield instantly. Besides, when a guy is athletic, the common knock is to bag on his run defense.

Be careful what you read from the canonized sources because they rarely have any idea what they are looking at in reference to scheme. While the Watt eval stands currently as an incomplete due to the spread, I am sure that he is more than capable for his role. Four years from now, Watt will be the best the best 34 end in football if he is taken by BB. There isn't a player at his position there with his hand strength, hand speed, agility, motor, work ethic, nor raw frame potential.

 

[Wilfork#75]

The writers who look at Watt's performance nearing the end of his senior season and say that he can't handle the run simply don't know what they are looking at. Watt plays against spread teams that frequently run the zone read option. In this play, the quarterback (from the gun with the back next to him) reads the backside end as they run a zone play on the line. If the backside end crashes, the quarterback keeps and sprints off the backside tackle who will easily wash the end. This is defended with a backside concept called double anal. What?!? Crap. I mean the scrape exchange. In the scrape exchange the end crashes and the backside backer fills the contain void by looping outside the crashing end. As we can see, Watt's responsibility is the crash and offer himself up to the tackle. If the QB keeps Watt looks like he is washed. If he keeps scraping and makes a play, he is labeledas an over-aggressive shooter.

I see a lot written about how he stuggles against doubleteams. It's pretty hard to double a guy from the spread when you're playing backside safety games with trips. In the rare circumstances they actually use a TE as their Y and try a quick toss, of course he's going to get cracked as the EMOS. Nobody beats that unless they get an insane read an get upfield instantly. Besides, when a guy is athletic, the common knock is to bag on his run defense.

Be careful what you read from the canonized sources because they rarely have any idea what they are looking at in reference to scheme. While the Watt eval stands currently as an incomplete due to the spread, I am sure that he is more than capable for his role. Four years from now, Watt will be the best the best 34 end in football if he is taken by BB. There isn't a player at his position there with his hand strength, hand speed, agility, motor, work ethic, nor raw frame potential.

Don't you that is a huge projection to make though, especially for a guy that you will likely need to take in the top 12. I'll admit I don't completely understand the defensive system Watt played in at Wisconsin, but the games I watched I didn't see anything that would help project him into a two gap system. While I love his talent, I think it is way too big of a risk to take him in the first round, especially if a trade up is needed. He would need to bulk up, learn a completely new system and learn to play with a completely new technique. It doesn't seem like a BB move to take a guy in the first that would need time to develop in so many areas. He likes guys in the first round that can come in and play 3 downs, where I only see Watt as a situational pass rusher until he can develop that technique. To me he is too much of a risk to take that high, especially when we could get a guy that projects to our system much easier, like Wilkerson or Heyward.

 

[supafly]

This is defended with a backside concept called double anal.

You just served me up a big, fat, fastball...and I have to watch it fly by for a called strike three (out of respect for the forum)

 

[supafly]

Don't you that is a huge projection to make though, especially for a guy that you will likely need to take in the top 12. I'll admit I don't completely understand the defensive system Watt played in at Wisconsin, but the games I watched I didn't see anything that would help project him into a two gap system. While I love his talent, I think it is way too big of a risk to take him in the first round, especially if a trade up is needed. He would need to bulk up, learn a completely new system and learn to play with a completely new technique. It doesn't seem like a BB move to take a guy in the first that would need time to develop in so many areas. He likes guys in the first round that can come in and play 3 downs, where I only see Watt as a situational pass rusher until he can develop that technique. To me he is too much of a risk to take that high, especially when we could get a guy that projects to our system much easier, like Wilkerson or Heyward.

See, these are things that I had originally thought too, but jays52 is a defensive guru--so I am trusting his analysis and opinion for sure.

He has been high on him for a while now, so he must have good reason.

I tend to wonder what Belichick's opinion is, and we will certainly find out soon.

 

[MaineMan]

The writers who look at Watt's performance nearing the end of his senior season and say that he can't handle the run simply don't know what they are looking at. Watt plays against spread teams that frequently run the zone read option. In this play, the quarterback (from the gun with the back next to him) reads the backside end as they run a zone play on the line. If the backside end crashes, the quarterback keeps and sprints off the backside tackle who will easily wash the end. This is defended with a backside concept called double anal. What?!? Crap. I mean the scrape exchange. In the scrape exchange the end crashes and the backside backer fills the contain void by looping outside the crashing end. As we can see, Watt's responsibility is the crash and offer himself up to the tackle. If the QB keeps Watt looks like he is washed. If he keeps scraping and makes a play, he is labeledas an over-aggressive shooter.

I see a lot written about how he stuggles against doubleteams. It's pretty hard to double a guy from the spread when you're playing backside safety games with trips. In the rare circumstances they actually use a TE as their Y and try a quick toss, of course he's going to get cracked as the EMOS. Nobody beats that unless they get an insane read an get upfield instantly. Besides, when a guy is athletic, the common knock is to bag on his run defense.

Be careful what you read from the canonized sources because they rarely have any idea what they are looking at in reference to scheme. While the Watt eval stands currently as an incomplete due to the spread, I am sure that he is more than capable for his role. Four years from now, Watt will be the best the best 34 end in football if he is taken by BB. There isn't a player at his position there with his hand strength, hand speed, agility, motor, work ethic, nor raw frame potential.

Nice detailed breakdown of what Watt has faced in college (that he won't in the pros) and of how Watt was required to approach the DE position (which he won't be in BB's 34).

 

[jays52]

Don't you that is a huge projection to make though, especially for a guy that you will likely need to take in the top 12. I'll admit I don't completely understand the defensive system Watt played in at Wisconsin, but the games I watched I didn't see anything that would help project him into a two gap system. While I love his talent, I think it is way too big of a risk to take him in the first round, especially if a trade up is needed. He would need to bulk up, learn a completely new system and learn to play with a completely new technique. It doesn't seem like a BB move to take a guy in the first that would need time to develop in so many areas. He likes guys in the first round that can come in and play 3 downs, where I only see Watt as a situational pass rusher until he can develop that technique. To me he is too much of a risk to take that high, especially when we could get a guy that projects to our system much easier, like Wilkerson or Heyward.

Frankly, no, that's not too much of a projection because I know what I'm looking at. There's nuance in the game of each player that can be used in each projection, and I say projection because that's what the draft is. The nuance in Watt's game is expressed when he engages players in one step and snaps their heads back with his punch. How he throws a player around with his club. The way he incline pressed and literally threw a TCU tackle. He's an extraordinarily powerful player, it's just more subtle than usual.

You're right on BB having a preference; he doesn't have a concrete one. This is especially true in the front three where very few players are NFL ready day one. The best defensive player on the team split time his rookie year and was labeled a shooter. Seymour played on a really bad d-line and got mixed reps everywhere as they shifted from 43 to elephanted 43 over to 34. Warren sat a year.

 

[jays52]

Nice detailed breakdown of what Watt has faced in college (that he won't in the pros) and of how Watt was required to approach the DE position (which he won't be in BB's 34).

I understand. I was simply trying to illustrate his responsibilities and how those relate to the easily accessed scouting reports many offer. If you'd like me to get into how I am making the projection I would be happy to.