Time to get serious about JJ Watt

[JoeShmoe]

Every year this board whips itself into a frenzy of settling on a must have first pick and every year BB and the FO go in a totally opposite direction

My guess is we go OT at #17 , OLB/DE at #28, trade #33 for a 2012 1st (id bet the house on this one) and OG in the 2nd

And you can also bet we wont pick at #17 or #28, we'll move around to get who we want (Tyron Smith and Wilkerson for me)

 

[supafly]

Every year this board whips itself into a frenzy of settling on a must have first pick and every year BB and the FO go in a totally opposite direction

My guess is we go OT at #17 , OLB/DE at #28, trade #33 for a 2012 1st (id bet the house on this one) and OG in the 2nd

And you can also bet we wont pick at #17 or #28, we'll move around to get who we want (Tyron Smith and Wilkerson for me)

I'm pretty high on Muhammad Wilkerson too, maybe at 28. I don't know if he'd be around that far at 33, and I have a hunch that some team is going to want to trade up for a player who didn't go in the 1st rd, and take our 2nd rd pick (33). It'll be nice to have 2 firsts next yr too, if that's the case.

Of course, who knows how it will work out, every single year we are pummeled with various mocks, and none of them ever even come close to predicting much of anything. The only thing we'll know for sure is that Belichick will continue to do whatever he feels is best for the team, everything else be damned--and that's certainly exactly the way we want it.

 

[Off The Grid]

The time to get serious about JJ Watt was back in October, when it became clearly evident that he is a Force.

Welcome aboard.

 

[furley]

The more I read his name, the more I'm starting to believe that he won't be available by pick seventeen. You could see a team such as Houston, Minnesota, Detroit or Jacksonville select JJ Watt with one of the others selecting Cameron Jordan.

 

[patsfan-1982]

you can call me crazy but this is how i see the pats draft going. i think JJ Watt, and most of the top plyers in the draft will be gone by pick #17 so i see them tradeing that pick with a team picking in the the mid 20's and geting back a 5th in this years draft and a 2th in next years and they will draft Benjamin Ijalana, or Torrey Smith

with #28 i dont see the pats useing two #1's so they will trade down into the 2th round with this pick cause i think any player they want at #28 could be there at #33 and with #33 they will trade that for a #1 next year... so at the end of the day the pats will Draft one #1 and two 2th round picks and end up right back with two #1's and two 2th round picks next year.

 

[JoeShmoe]

you can call me crazy but this is how i see the pats draft going. i think JJ Watt, and most of the top plyers in the draft will be gone by pick #17 so i see them tradeing that pick with a team picking in the the mid 20's and geting back a 5th in this years draft and a 2th in next years and they will draft Benjamin Ijalana, or Torrey Smith

with #28 i dont see the pats useing two #1's so they will trade down into the 2th round with this pick cause i think any player they want at #28 could be there at #33 and with #33 they will trade that for a #1 next year... so at the end of the day the pats will Draft one #1 and two 2th round picks and end up right back with two #1's and two 2th round picks next year.

I wouldn't be at all surprised, next years draft looks much deeper esp for WR's and OL

 

[Gator Mike]

Watt seems like a perfect fit... except for his agent.

What are the odds the Pats overlook the Tom Condon Factor??? Could they bank on the assumption that the new CBA will include a rookie salary cap?

 

[VJCPatriot]

Jared Odrick...

Watt is a way better athlete than Odrick. More explosive, more agile, better straight line speed, etc. Watt is a freak of nature. He had a 6.88 3 cone. Those are WR type numbers on a 6'6 290 lb frame. The only question is does he last until 17 and do the Pats trade down if there are say 2 other DL such as Heyward and Wilkerson still available then.

 

[Don Kipines]

Watt seems like a perfect fit... except for his agent.

What are the odds the Pats overlook the Tom Condon Factor??? Could they bank on the assumption that the new CBA will include a rookie salary cap?

If there's a slotting system, the Condon thing becomes more or less a non-issue.

Watt looks like a great fit, and so does Jordan. The Pats could get up to the pick#11 range by dealing the #60 pick, and it seems to me that so long as the two top quarterbacks get drafted early, one of those two guys will definitely drop into trading-up range. You have to figure the following players will definitely go before either Watt or Jordan:

Peterson, Fairley, Bowers, Dareus, A.J. Green, Von Miller.

If we assume that Newton and Gabbert will get picked in the top 10 as well, most likely before one or more of those blue-chip guys, then that pushes Watt/Jordan to the 9/10 range. Hard to imagine that Carolina, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, San Francisco and Tennessee will all pass on quarterbacks.

Throw in the fairly decent chance that Quinn, Julio Jones and/or Amukamara will get into the top 10 somehow, and there's a pretty good chance that either Watt or Jordan falls to pick #11 or #12. And if they do both get picked before then, there's a chance that it's because someone potentially better is falling, like Von Miller (unlikely) or Fairley or Dareus. And if they like Robert Quinn, they're in a pretty good position to get him, too, although I'd rather have Watt.

Given how many picks they have, I'd be shocked if the Pats weren't thinking of a trade up here. I can see not trading into the top five, but the cost to trade up into the top 11-12 range is pretty negligible for them. They can get there and still essentially have two first-rounders left.

People say the Pats always trade down, but haven't they also traded up a lot, particularly in situations like this, when they're only trading up a few spots? They traded up for Dan Graham, Ty Warren, Eugene Wilson, Bethel Johnson, Rohan Davey... Chad Jackson's the only one I can remember where they had to trade up a long way. I guess it all depends on who they like in this draft, but if they're holding back from getting someone they think is an impact player because they don't want to give up pick #60, that would be strange, wouldn't it?

 

[DNR]

Watt is a way better athlete than Odrick. More explosive, more agile, better straight line speed, etc. Watt is a freak of nature. He had a 6.88 3 cone. Those are WR type numbers on a 6'6 290 lb frame. The only question is does he last until 17 and do the Pats trade down if there are say 2 other DL such as Heyward and Wilkerson still available then.

I'm hoping they move up a couple spots if needed and make sure they get Watt.
If they don't, and he's not there at #17, I'm hoping they take either Aldon Smith or Ryan Kerrigan and then Muhammad Wilkerson at #28. I'd still be pretty happy with that...

 

[BradyMossWelker]

Watt is a way better athlete than Odrick. More explosive, more agile, better straight line speed, etc. Watt is a freak of nature. He had a 6.88 3 cone. Those are WR type numbers on a 6'6 290 lb frame. The only question is does he last until 17 and do the Pats trade down if there are say 2 other DL such as Heyward and Wilkerson still available then.

I know, but last year Odrick was also the certain pick at 22, and then BB didn't even liked him, as he passed him on 3 times. With BB we can never be sure that he likes a guy enough to take him.

 

[CTHuskies]

you can call me crazy but this is how i see the pats draft going. i think JJ Watt, and most of the top plyers in the draft will be gone by pick #17 so i see them tradeing that pick with a team picking in the the mid 20's and geting back a 5th in this years draft and a 2th in next years and they will draft Benjamin Ijalana, or Torrey Smith

with #28 i dont see the pats useing two #1's so they will trade down into the 2th round with this pick cause i think any player they want at #28 could be there at #33 and with #33 they will trade that for a #1 next year... so at the end of the day the pats will Draft one #1 and two 2th round picks and end up right back with two #1's and two 2th round picks next year.

I don’t think you are crazy. I too think JJ Watt, A Smith and most of the top players in the draft will be gone by #17. There is far better chance BB trades down than up. Trading into mid 20s and going for OL or DL. I agree that BB will likely trade down into 2nd round with #28. The best chance for trade is #33 for #1 in 2012. I also see BB moving #60 since they have #74 and #92.:rocker:

 

[JoeSixPat]

The Patriots have not signed a Condon-represented player either as a draft pick or as a free agent since the Watson fiasco. Ian Rapoport says he has a source saying that the Pats don't work with Condon.

sounds like a perfect story to leak to convince other teams that the Patriots aren't interested.

Indeed with the building hype over Watt and his role in the 3-4 his stock could rise to a point where he'd not be available to the Pats and they might need to trade up to get him.

If Belichick wants him the last thing he'd want to do is let that be known.

 

[Off The Grid]

JJ Watt, baby.

He's DYN ~ O ~ MITE!!!

 

[SyN65]

wait...would the patriots really not draft a guy based on his agent?? thats ******ed. what if that guy was perfect for your team? id be kicking myself if i didn't draft a guy based on hi agent rather than his talent

 

[tricktak]

Watt makes too much sense for the pats and that's exactly why he won't be the pick and he'll be terrorizing the Patriots in San Diego for the next 8 years.

 

[Sciz]

wait...would the patriots really not draft a guy based on his agent?? thats ******ed. what if that guy was perfect for your team? id be kicking myself if i didn't draft a guy based on hi agent rather than his talent

You weren't the one negotiating with him. Don't judge.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Watt makes too much sense for the pats and that's exactly why he won't be the pick and he'll be terrorizing the Patriots in San Diego for the next 8 years.

I just don't understand the enthusiasm for Watt as a DE. While I might be incorrect in my analysis I don't see anything from the footage I've see of him that he can anchor the line or collapse the pocket, he seems similar to Jared Allen in that he he'll run upfield a bunch and get after the other players but I don't him being that stout front 3 guy that is going to command a double team.

YouTube - JJ Watt Highlights

YouTube - JJ Watt vs. Ohio State

The role he's playing here is very different than he would in BBs defense, which seem to emphasize different things. Perhaps I'm not viewing things correctly, and if anyone can point that out I'd be grateful.

Thanks

 

[jays52]

I just don't understand the enthusiasm for Watt as a DE. While I might be incorrect in my analysis I don't see anything from the footage I've see of him that he can anchor the line or collapse the pocket, he seems similar to Jared Allen in that he he'll run upfield a bunch and get after the other players but I don't him being that stout front 3 guy that is going to command a double team.

YouTube - JJ Watt Highlights

YouTube - JJ Watt vs. Ohio State

The role he's playing here is very different than he would in BBs defense, which seem to emphasize different things. Perhaps I'm not viewing things correctly, and if anyone can point that out I'd be grateful.

Thanks

He's doing a lot of shooting in these. On those moves where he's instantly in the backfield you're seeing something drawn up for him. He's got one move here and that's the swim. There are a couple of things you can glean from those, though. First, look at that handspeed. It's amazing, violent, and fluid. Best of the potential picks in this regard. Second, watch how devastating that initial club is. Specifically the play where he shot the a gap against Ohio State when they had him at the 1-tech. He jumped that snap like a sumbeech, but look how off balance that club got the center. Even if he had a chance to slide (which he didn't) that club would have flat stoned it. Powerful hand technique and FAST.

Pass rush is an easy eval, he's decent enough. His agility is insane, too.

Here's the fun part of the applicapable eval. Unless he gets a great jump on the outside, he engages the o-lineman and either goes for the bull or looks for the ball to clog a lane. Nice awareness, yes, but when he engages the tackle watch his initial contact. This is as close as you're going to find for 2-gap comparison. Most bull rushers churn their legs and work their hands to drive the blocker up and back. (Matthews, Clay) Think your standard engage and lockout sled drill. Watt doesn't do this. He engages the player instead and works from there. When he takes the player note how his punch stands a 300+ pound man straight up. No wildman crazy bullrush, just a punch that is devastating. You need that to 2-gap well. Nobody this year has that punch.

That early Ohio State clip where he got washed was a nice read by the back keying the backside end (Watt). Flow away zone and Watt drives for the common backside cutback lane as it looked like an outside zone (at least to me) He actually had position on the tackle and was playing it pretty well. The back made a great read on the backside end (Watt), made a hell of a cut and made his tackle's job really easy. Stuff like that explains the washing knocks you frequently read. The truth is out there, albeit a tad more nuanced.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Nice insights Jay. I'm pretty sold on Watt for our team as well. I think he can get bigger and stronger and that 6'6 290 lb frame is a real nice base to build off. First, consider that this guy is just coming of fhis Junior year and he has plenty of time to grow into his full size and strength as a Pro.

Next consider that you can't teach the amazing length, explosiveness, and agility that Watt has for a man of that size. Watch the clips and you will quickly notice one thing - JJ Watt is a disruptive force. He gets into the backfield to tackle the back, to force the QB into hurried throws, to force the QB to try to throw over him on those outs and screens. Those were NOT easy conversions against Watt and minimal yardage was gained due to his early pressure.

Also with his long arms Watt manages to snag QBs and HBs a split second earlier converting some amazing shoestring tackles with just the force of one swat from his mitts. There's some power in them hands. How often have you seen a RB or QB go down with a 1 hand tackle? Well Watt can make em. I'd prefer wrap up form tackling, but that amazing reach and strength will create some freakish defensive plays that other defenders just can't make.

Finally, consider that we have Warren coming back and we signed Stroud. Wilfork is here for the long haul as well. Brace will return with another season of experience. We've got all the run stuffers we need. As Watt grows into his full body, he can still make an immediate impact at end on rush downs. Right now we don't use the base 3-4 as much because we don't generate enough pressure with that base look. Watt would change that and at a position closest in distance to the QB. I see Watt as the rush DE lining up over the left tackle. Warren is more of a natural run stuffing DE lining up over the right tackle.

Go back and watch the clips, there's one play where Watt ends up being triple teamed and is barely kept off the QB. JJ Watt = Constant Pressure and Relentless Motor. Something this team has been missing ever since Seymour left. If we draft Watt, he might just become the highest Motor defensive lineman in the BB era. And that's saying something.