Thoughts about this draft.

[BelichickFan]

I would love for the chart and accompanying article to be wrong. Picking 21 would be awesome.

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.htm

 

[BelichickFan]

I've posted my halfway position a few times.

With #21 and about the same in round 2, I would like to see a best quick WR and best OL. Kaczur and Mankins can play T or G and Light could probably move inside too so I don't really care about the position. Those three plus Koppen and the new high pick would be a good group. I kind of feel bad throwing Neal under the bus but he's a FA and was a little disappointing this year. I also want another quickie WR like Branch. Those two plus the two TE would be very good. With two 3s I'd be looking at a young RB and LB to develop.

A few devil's advocate positions :

- Neal probably wouldn't cost too much to sign and getting Light and Koppen back plus the assumed development of Mankins and Kaczur is interesting by itself.

- Brushchi and McGinnest are getting old.

- Everyone in the secondary is good enough but are they REALLY good enough. It's all very well and good to throw out names like Hobbs, Samuel, Gay, but will they ever actually be above average ? Same at Safety with Wilson, Sanders, Scott.

The complicating factor is this is a very strong Safety draft. Imagine getting a 23 year old Harrison.

I think I'm re-thinking the OL thing as we should be able to sign Neal, or the like, for not too much.

Assuming appropriate value (and no drastic FA changes) I'm now thinking :

1) Safety (just because there's some big boys out there).
2) WR - unless we re-sign Givens.
3a) CB
3b) LB
4) RB

I'll take my chances with a pretty good OL and pray that Dillon can rebound a little. If he can't, we can draft a RB high in 2007 in my #4 pick doesn't work out. RB can usually be integrated quickly.

I don't disagree on the OL thing, I'm just worried that the Back Eight will disintegrate between age and mediocrity.

 

[drew4008]

1) Safety (just because there's some big boys out there).

The thing is, there isn't really any safety there to take at # 21. Huff is a helluva player, and I would love to have him, but he'll be gone before 15. After that the next best is Ko Simpson, who projects somewhere around 20-35, followed by Bing who projects as late 1st early 2nd and then Allen, Blue, and Pollard, who should go anywhere in Round 2 or 3. Greg Blue is a guy to look at though, early in the 2nd, he's a big hitter and plays a lot like Rodney.

 

[BelichickFan]

The thing is, there isn't really any safety there to take at # 21. Huff is a helluva player, and I would love to have him, but he'll be gone before 15. After that the next best is Ko Simpson, who projects somewhere around 20-35, followed by Bing who projects as late 1st early 2nd and then Allen, Blue, and Pollard, who should go anywhere in Round 2 or 3. Greg Blue is a guy to look at though, early in the 2nd, he's a big hitter and plays a lot like Rodney.

Yeah, you're probably right. But the lateish 2nd might be a little late. Santonio Holmes probably won't be there at #21 either. This may be the year we're forced to take a LB in the first round, barring a trade, because there looks to be some good depth there that should make it to #21.

 

[maverick4]

re:

Interesting reasoning. I agree Belichick loves drafting big guys early.

However, I think our line is already pretty solid.

What are the chances of Belichick trading out of the first round for a high second and an additional fourth from another team?

I've heard the depth of this draft is strong. Stock-piling picks might be the way to go this time.

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[BelichickFan]

What are the chances of Belichick trading out of the first round for a high second and an additional fourth from another team?

I've heard the depth of this draft is strong. Stock-piling picks might be the way to go this time.

The only problem with that is we already have : 1,2,3,3,4,4,5,6,7 and will get at least one more pick, maybe two, as comps for Andruzzi and Patten.

I wouldn't mind trading our #1 for a #2 and a 2007 #1 like we did with Baltimore and ended up with Wilson and Wilfork. You have to be the right team at the right time but I would be up for trading for 2007 picks if we get good value.

 

[maverick4]

The only problem with that is we already have : 1,2,3,3,4,4,5,6,7 and will get at least one more pick, maybe two, as comps for Andruzzi and Patten.

With those picks, I see Belichick and Pioli wheeling and dealing up and down the board all weekend.

For example, if they feel there are still many players in their value groupings left on the board, then I see them trading down from their #1 for a high #2 and #4.

Then, they would be using their extra 4's, 5th and 6th round picks to move up a few spots in the second and third rounds as the guys they wanted became available.

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[BelichickFan]

With those picks, I see Belichick and Pioli wheeling and dealing up and down the board all weekend.

They're so good with that stuff it makes my head spin.

They juggled picks last year to the point that we traded our #2 and #7 for Ellis Hobbs, Matt Cassell, Baltimore's #3 and Oakland's #5 (those picks this year). We basically get those two picks for free.

You can see it here :

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft05/news/story?id=2041490

We traded No. 64 overall for No. 84 (Ellis Hobbs), No. 195 and a third-round pick in the 2006 draft. Then we traded that 6th and a 7th for a higher 6th. Then we traded that 6th for a 7th (Cassell) and the Raiders' 5th in 2006.

And along the way we traded a 5th and a 6th for Detroit's 4th.

There was some top notch trading in those little deals.

 

[tombonneau]

With those picks, I see Belichick and Pioli wheeling and dealing up and down the board all weekend.

For example, if they feel there are still many players in their value groupings left on the board, then I see them trading down from their #1 for a high #2 and #4.

Then, they would be using their extra 4's, 5th and 6th round picks to move up a few spots in the second and third rounds as the guys they wanted became available.

.

Agreed. If the right player falls into the mid-teens, I could see BB packaging a combo of late day 1 picks to move up.

Much like last year, we simply won't have the roster room for more than 5-6 rooks, depending on how many FA signings are made.

 

[patsox23]

I see them trading down from their #1 for a high #2 and #4.

We traded our #19 overall a couple years ago and got a #2 and a future #1. Why on Earth would we settle for a #2 and a 4th rounder? I'd be pi$$ed if that's all they got for their #1 pick.

 

[drew4008]

We traded our #19 overall a couple years ago and got a #2 and a future #1. Why on Earth would we settle for a #2 and a 4th rounder? I'd be pi$$ed if that's all they got for their #1 pick.

Exactly, they'd get a lot more than that.

Here's a draft value chart:

 

[Richter]

While I wouldn't be surprised at anything the Patriots do in the draft, the offensive line just doesn't seem like a priority, especially with how weak the draft class is. There are likely to be 2 or 3 potential high quality safeties available where the Pats will be picking, as well as some very talented outside linebackers. I'd say the most likely scenario, assuming one of the stud RBs doesn't slide (which is no lock, plenty of good backs have slid recently), is:

1st: S Darnell Bing, USC/LaRon Landry, LSU
2nd: LB (Abdul Hodge? Quite a few instinctive linebackers with good football IQs in this year's draft, someone should slip)
3rd: C and WR (Mike Haas is my personal favorite here at WR)
4th: RB (Assuming a top back doesn't slip in the 1st)
5th, 6th and 7th: Offensive line and defensive back 7 depth

There is a tremendous opportunity to fill holes and create great depth in some of these units. My prediction for the Patriots draft surprise this year is that quite a few picks go towards areas of need, while still drafting for value. The chance to add a top safety or running back in the first round is tremendous though, which is why I'd be shocked if neither position was addressed there.

 

[Miguel]

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/draft/update

If you can disprove this, please do so.

Seriously.

I would love for the chart and accompanying article to be wrong. Picking 21 would be awesome.

That is not proof. That is Sportsline's opinion. This is proof.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9137410

The order among the playoff teams is subject to change, depending on how teams do in the postseason, although no team can fall below other teams with the same regular-season record unless it advances to the Super Bowl. The winner of that game would have the 32nd and last pick, the loser would pick 31st.

Thus New England and Washington (both 10-6) are Nos. 21 and 22. If the Patriots advance and the Redskins don't, Washington would move up one spot, but New England could not fall below 22nd.

This is proof.
Go back and look at past drafts and see what has happened in the past. Past drafts back up NFL.Com and disprove Sportsline.Com.

 

[drew4008]

1st: S Darnell Bing, USC/LaRon Landry, LSU

Bing's stock has dropped and he may not even go Round 1 now, and LaRon Landry is returning to LSU.