I'm going to go with 13-3. Here is how I see it playing out:
Mon 9/14 Buffalo W
Sun 9/20 at NY Jets W
Sun 9/27 Atlanta W
Sun 10/4 Baltimore L
Sun 10/11 at Denver W
Sun 10/18 Tennessee W
Sun 10/25 at Tampa Bay W
bye
Sun 11/8 Miami W
Sun 11/15 at Indianapolis W
Sun 11/22 NY Jets W
Mon 11/30 at New Orleans W
Sun 12/6 at Miami L
Sun 12/13 Carolina W
Sun 12/20 at Buffalo W
Sun 12/27 Jacksonville W
Sun 1/3 at Houston L
I see us losing to Baltimore. Two years ago, they had a vastly inferior team compared to what they have now and nearly pulled out the win against us with the Pats being undefeated at the time. I know it's just the preseason, but their defense looks sick again this year and, should Flacco stay healthy, they should be able to move the ball enough to keep up with the Pats as well. The other loss comes courtesy of the Dolphins at Miami since we always seem to have a ton of problems with them for at least one game of the season. Plus, they are now sending both Jason Taylor and Joey Porter at Brady. The third loss comes in garbage time to Houston as we have already wrapped up the #1 seed in the playoffs and are playing without Brady, Moss, Welker, and a few other starters.
Really, those are the only three games I could see us losing. I think we'll sweep the Jets and Bills this year for our other divisional games.