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The 45 Man Squad - & The Final Choices

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by mgteich, Aug 29, 2010.

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  1. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    My projected 48 man squad includes 3 choices, so I really have only 45 solid projections. Some would disagree about keeping both Wheatley and Wilhite. I think it is clear to keep the extra corner. This 48 man squad is light at OLB. As is often the case, the backup OLB help will come from the players chosen as special teamers.

    OFFENSE - (23)
    QB 2 - Brady, Hoyer
    RB 4 - Maroney, Taylor, Morris, Faulk
    WR 5 Moss, Welker, Tate, Edelman, Price
    TE 3 Grankowski, Crumpler, Hernandez
    OL 9 Light, Connolly, Koppen, Neal, Vollmer, LeVoir, Ojinnaka, Wendell, Kaczur/Ghiaciuc

    DEFENSE - (22)
    DL 6 Wright, Wilfork, Warren, Brace, Pryor, Lewis/Deaderick
    OLB 3 Banta-Cain, Burgess, Cunningham
    ILB 3 Mayo, Spikes, Guyton, Alexander/McKenzie
    CB 5 Bodden, McCourty, Butler, Wheatley, Wilhite
    S 4 Meriweather, Chung, Sanders, McGowan

    SPECIALISTS (3)
    K 1 Gostkowski
    P 1 Mesko
    LS 1 Ingram

    SPECIAL TEAMERS AND LINEBACKER DEPTH (5)
    PICK 5 Aiken, Arrington, Woods, Murrell, Ninkovich
    CUTS Alexander/McKenzie, Lockett, Slater, Green-Ellis

    ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE "CUTS"
    Belichick may keep additional special teamers and cut one of the "locks". For example, I could see Belichick choosing to keep Lockett instead of McGowan, or Alexander instead of McKenzie. I even could see Belichick choosing Green-Ellis instead of the 9th offensive lineman. Finally I could see a final choice of Slater instead of the 5th corner, thus relying on Arrington as the emergency 5th corner.
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2010
  2. stinkypete

    stinkypete Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    I think Bussey makes it in the OT/OG role in place of Kaczur/Ghaicuic. Kaczur lands on PUP with hopes of playing late season.

    I think Alexander beats out McKenzie unless McKenzie proves himself equally adept a special teamer. McKenzie sits behind Mayo, Guyton and Spikes on the depth chart. They're all solid, young players with unique strengths who will be part of the defense for years. Where does McKenzie fit here? He better bring it on special teams if he hopes to find a place on the final 53.
  3. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Unfortunatley, you plan isn't in conformance with the rules of the nfl.

    Kaczur cannot be put on the PUP list. He has practices and is ineligible.

    Therefore, the question is whether to keep him on the 53 in the hopes of him playing later in the year. My choice would be to keep him unless the hopes of him being valuable later in the season are minimal.

    I prefer Ghiaciuc to Bussey, but that is simply a personal preference. In any case, our #4 OT is Ojinnaka who has been practicing at RT. Also, if it is a close decision, we should remember that Bussey is eligible for the Practice Squad. Ghiaciuc is not.

  4. fgssand

    fgssand PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #17 Jersey

    Nice job................I see Slater sneaking in there somehow(assuming he is healthy), but I cannot pull one of your 5 off to do it.....
  5. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa Rookie

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    I don't think Woods, Murrell and Ninkovich will all make it. Probably 2/3. I'll say no to Murrell. I feel we will carry an extra DL instead. Especially with Brace injury now. Don't think Deaderick will slip thru waivers. DL are always in demand. Someone would probably pick him up. Not sure about carrying 6 cb's either. I'll say BJGE instead of Arrington(Might be able to deal Wilhite for a draft pick and Keep Arrington). Other than those 2 tweaks. Don't see any difference. Not sure how staff evaluates the OL. But, I think 9 is the right number. Just not sure which ones.
  6. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Offense: 24
    QB: Brady, Hoyer (2)
    RB: Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Morris (4)
    TE: Crumpler, Gronkowski, Hernandez (3)
    WR: Moss, Welker, Edelman, Tate, Price, Aiken (6)
    OT: Light, Vollmer, Kaczur, LeVoir (4)
    OL: Connolly, Koppen, Neal, Wendell, Orhnberger (5)

    - Green-Ellis is not PSquad eligible, but he's a likely shadow roster candidate since he's a limited RB overall. Morris is slowing, but he's still a better receiver and blocker so he wins the final slot.
    - Aiken sticks for STs, for his veteran balance to the youngsters, and for his QB 'trust' factor.
    - Kaczur was kept on the active roster for four games in 2006 before he saw his first action. Unless he's made no progress since the surgery, and by now they should know, there's every reason to let him come back for the second half of the season.
    - Wendell is stepping into Connolly's role as the next Hochstein-like utility OL. Wendell appears to be the most versatile at the three interior positions and he's taken reps at FB and KR Wedge - all roles Connolly has been used in since Russ was traded to Denver.
    - Orhnberger seems to be the best reserve prospect for RG, so I can see NE protecting him on the roster as insurance behind Neal. Much the same way Yates would start ahead of Hochstein when Neal was out, leaving Russ free to cover all three positions and FB.

    Defense: 26
    DL: Wilfork, Wright, Warren, Brace, Pryor, Lewis, Deadrick (7)
    OLB: Banta-Cain, Burgess, Murrell, Cunningham, Ninkovich, Woods (6)
    ILB: Mayo, Guyton, Spikes, McKenzie (4)
    CB: Bodden, Butler, McCourty, Wilhite, Arrington (5)
    S: Meriweather, Chung, Sanders, McGowan (4)

    - Too many new players and young players on the D-line to risk keeping just 6 DL.
    - Woods is one the the teams leading STs tacklers each year and an adequate reserve OLB.
    - Ninkovich is a STs Ace and like Woods an adequate reserve OLB.
    - McKenzie gets a year to develop over keeping Alexander for STs.
    - Alexander has enough veteran tenure to have the option to turn down signing offers from other teams. Hopefully he deems it better for his situation to stick on the shadow roster rather then jump at playing for someone else.
    - Wheatley has PSquad eligibility, while Arrington lost his last season and Wilhite has none, if I recall the rules correctly.

    Specialists 3
    ST: Gostkowski, Mesko, Ingram

    Suspended: Ojinnaka (If NE wants him after his suspension they have the option of releasing Aiken or Ninkovich or Woods to make room.)
    Shadow: Alexander, Green-Ellis
    PSquad: Bussey, Larsen, Fletcher, Brown, Wheatley, Richard, Love, Robinson
  7. sbpatfan

    sbpatfan Banned

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    If Wheatley can't make the 53 in his third year as a former second round pick, why would they want to waste a spot on the PS for him? Seems like it would be time to cut ties.
  8. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Doesn't Wheatly have to make it through waivers to get to the practice squad???... as bad we think he is, another team might find him to be a good fit..
  9. bucky

    bucky Rookie

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    I think when you're making a roster prediction, this is exactly the right way to look at it:

    1) Who are going to be the 45 game day actives?
    2) Who are the next best 8 players based on depth/flexibility needs and developmental potential.

    The problem is I don't understand based from your original post who the game-day actives are.
  10. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Curiously, that is NOT the way to construct a roster. All the special teamers will be active in every game, and many of them are at the bottom of the roster.

    Last edited: Aug 30, 2010
  11. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    BEST RESERVE RIGHT GUARD
    Perhaps it is Ohrnberger. Perhaps it is Ojinnaka. Perhaps it is a player to be named.

    BACKUP AT TACKLE
    Ojinnaka also improves the backup position at RT. Your roster leaves us extremely vulnerable to an early season injury to one of the tackels.

    DEADERICK
    Why don't you think that this 7th rounder will make the Practice Squad? I would much rather have Wheatley if he is healthy (he will not make it to the Pracice Squad) or Alexander (he won't clear waivers).

    MCKENZIE
    I find the 4th ILB a total luxury. The only reason three ILB's will get a lot of reps is because we have no one player to play opposite Mayo. Last year Mayo and Guyton got almost all the reps except when Mayo was injured.

    In the end, we will need to decide how many developmental players to carry, losing a special teamer for each on we keep. Price is one. McKenzie would be our second. You even have a 3rd in Deaderick. Cunningham is the 4th. That is too much drag on the roster for me.

    Last edited: Aug 30, 2010
  12. bucky

    bucky Rookie

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    Maybe they're at the bottom of your roster. But if they're on the active 45, they're one of the top 45 players on the roster. And it's actually a lot easier to think about it that way.
  13. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Here is a projected Active Roster for Game 1.

    To me, this has little to do with roster decisions. The active roster is the list of the 45 roster players who are active against a given opponent. It has little to do with critical roster decisions. For example, Price and Cunningham are likely to be inactive against Cinci. However, they are not in any way in danger of being cut.

    OFFENSE - (19)
    QB 2 - Brady, Hoyer
    RB 3 - Maroney, Taylor, Faulk
    WR 4 Moss, Welker, Tate, Edelman
    TE 3 Grankowski, Crumpler, Hernandez
    OL 7 Light, Connolly, Koppen, Neal, Vollmer, LeVoir, Wendell

    DEFENSE - (18)
    DL 5 Wright, Wilfork, Warren, Brace, Pryor
    OLB 2 Banta-Cain, Burgess
    ILB 3 Mayo, Spikes, Guyton
    CB 4 Bodden, McCourty, Butler, Wilhite
    S 4 Meriweather, Chung, Sanders, McGowan

    SPECIALISTS (3)
    K 1 Gostkowski
    P 1 Mesko
    LS 1 Ingram

    SPECIAL TEAMS (5)
    ST Aiken, Arrington, Woods, Murrell, Ninkovich
    .



  14. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Perhaps is your word choice, I made my decision based on what I saw in preseason and read in the camp reports.

    This is the first roster after final cutdown, it's subject to change before each and every game, including game one.

    I'm not concerned with Deadrick making the PSquad because I'm not looking to stash him there, I want seven DL for depth and he's currently the 7th man. Wheatley hasn't played CB in a regular season game since his rookie season, he was inactive a lot last season, and he's had minimal reps against starters this preseason, if he doesn't clear waivers it's sadly only a minor setback for NE - I expect him to clear waivers.

    Luxury is your depth assessment, developmental prospect is mine. I keep him on the 53 for the practice reps and to flesh out STs.

    Price is a Gunner, Vice, and Returner = STs. He's not a wasted space.
    McKenzie can be developed on STs, again no waste.
    Deadrick is a depth consideration, he just happens to be one who needs more development, no harm, no foul.
    Cunningham is a potential edge rusher, I'll take all the depth I can get there.


    Key: H = healthy inactive, I = injured

    A projected 45-man roster for game one would leave: Kaczur (I), Ohrnberger (H), Deadrick (H), Cunningham (I), Arrington (I), Edelman (I), Hernandez (I), and Hoyer as the emergency QB for the inactive list. Two of your "drag" would be needed for STs, one is coming off injury or is still injured, and the other was planned depth. This isn't rocket science, Herm Edwards used to do it. :cool:
  15. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Alexander does not need to clear waivers as he is a vested veteran.. (6 years)

    Personally, Wendell has been uninspiring from what I've seen.
  16. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    MCKENZIE
    McKenzie can be developed on ST's so there is no waste???? Isn't that true of almost any player? I think that Mckenzie will indeed make the roster. And yes, he will play special teams when there are injuries, significantly weakening the special teams. It isn't rocket science to believe that Alexander would be much more valuable this year and next than McKenzie. But, we can see how many reps he gets this year, outside of garbage time.

    DEADERICK
    Keep him instead of Lewis if he is good enough. After all, the 6th DL gets almost no reps (5% last year). We have two developing youngsters from last year who will likely play more this year. BTW, when was the last time we carried 7 DL's and how many reps did the 6th and 7th DL's get in that year.

    And just BTW, if you aren't concerned with Deaderick passing through waivers, then what is the advantage of him on the inactive roster instead of the Practice Squad?

    If Wheatley isn't worth a roster spot, then fine. He'll play for someone this year, whether or not he passing though waivers this week. There are lots of teams that could use him as their dime back or emergency 10th defensive back.



  17. bucky

    bucky Rookie

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    Well every decision you make is connected. If you're saying that Cunningham won't be active in week 1, you better be sure that you have enough OLBs on your active roster. In your case, you have Woods, Nink and Murrell (although you list them under ST). If Cunningham were on the 45 man roster, then perhaps you could drop Nink from the 53 and replace him with another OL or DL.

    Another example is Burgess - you know the guy doesn't play ST, so you need to keep guys like Nik and Woods around for ST value. But if Burgess doesn't crack your OLB rotation, and we know he doesn't play ST, then he's not on the 45 and you don't keep him around and take up a valuable roster spot just for OLB depth.

    Another example is at RB. You say you're only carrying 3 RBs on the 45. That makes it kind of hard to justify keeping 5 RBs total.
  18. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Who said Wheatley isn't worth a roster spot? There are any number of guys getting cut or waived who would appear to be worth roster spots, it's how you build the roster that often determines who lost out on the numbers game. As of today Alexander is worth more to the roster then McKenzie, the difference in trying to assign value is McKenzie is believed to offer more future value and he won't achieve it if he can't get practice reps. I projected keeping Aiken, Woods, Arrington, and Ninkovich as core STs players, with Sanders, McGowan, Morris, Wilhite, McCourty, Butler, Chung, Meriweather, Tate, Edelman, Guyton, Mayo, and Banta-Cain in STs roles, which lets McKenzie and Price be brought along on the teams.

    You're hung up on Deadrick, tough. NE has Wilfork and Wright returning from their experienced 3-4 DL. Warren, Lewis, Brace, and Pryor are all new to the defense, Deadrick has a small head start in a similar 3-4, has the size, strength, and talent to play, and has done enough in preseason to my eye to warrant retaining him. Whether he's inactive or active on game day will depend on the health of the guys in front of him and the role Pepper and Patricia have planned for the DL, I expect there will be games when all seven DL are active. I'm not going to count on scooping up a veteran 3-4 DL after final cut down, I'm advocating hanging onto an extra DL body because the trenches are where it all starts.
  19. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Tough is it?

    You are inventing a whole defense if you need seven active DL's for any games. I've only been watching this team for 30 years but I don't think we've ever had seven defensive linemen active. Why would a game play require seven DL's? I don't think all six were ever active last year, although it is possible that six were active and one didn't get any reps.

    We do not have defensive reps for more than five defensive linemen. The primary reason for that is the many of the reps go to linebackers. As you know, only 5 defensive linemen were involved in more than 25% of the defensive reps last year. The #6 was in on only 5% of the reps.

    We will see soon. If we do have seven defensive linemen, I would expect it to be temporary.

  20. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    My point was that Alexander would be playing for someone else soon after we cut him. He is not going to play Seau's role waiting around for Belichick's call to play a few games. Alexander is still a reasonably competent special teamer.

    I agree that Wendell has not exactly been aweinspiring; ditto for LeVoir. But they do know the system, and dante is comfortable with them. There is a REASON why Ojinnaka and Ghiaciuc are on the squad. They may make the squad and be starters if players are injured.

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