Shockingly Obvious: McDaniels, Don't Be Afraid of the Run!!!

[shmessy]

Okay, can someone explain to me why our pass run ratio is McDaniels' fault and not Bill's? We were passing a lot when McDaniels first became O-Coordinator under BB's tutelage, we were still passing when he left and O'Brien replaced him, and we are pretty much doing the same the second time round for McDaniels. BB has seen this offense work through the years, it is his system and the O'coordinators are assistants that are implementing exactly what he wants.
The two constants in our system have been Belichick and Brady, no matter who the offensive coordinator is. So if we need to put the blame somewhere, let's put it where it makes sense.

Excellent point. Brady and Belichick most certainly do have input and effect on the offensive gameplan.

That being said, I would venture to say that McDaniels has the majority of the gameplanning responsibility. The only time I ever see BB talking to an offensive player is before or after the game. I cannot remember seeing him kneeling down surrounded by the OL, or the RB's or the WRs - - he DOES a lot of hands on coaching during the game - but it's always with a defensive squad. Secondly, while Brady does indeed check off plays at the line from time to time, he does not send in the personnel packages - McDaniels does. When they have Blount and Develin lining up, Brady cannot call a 5 wide.

But I see your point, the thread title could easily read ""Patriots! Don't Be Afraid of the Run!"

 

[Deus Irae]

...But, I'm inclined to think that this is also a case of "where there's smoke, there's fire." I'm not saying that the Pats lost those four games because of the Run/Pass ratio, but it's also hard to deny that the running game plays a more important role when the receiving weapons are, let's say, "less robust" without Gronkandezker and where the pressure on the O to keep the D off the field is greater without Mayfork on D.

I also think it's fair to suggest that Josh's "default state of mind" is to pass rather than run.

When I think that the Pats could have to play the AFCCG in Denver in a few weeks, where one of the objectives will be to keep Peyton Manning off the field with our at times challenged secondary for as long as possible, I think that I like the idea of three RB's getting half the touches on long, productive possessions and opening things up for TB's brilliance.

Happy New Year to you, as well.

Here's the thing, though. It's one thing to say that the Patriots default (It's not just McDaniels, as history shows us) is pass oriented. It's another to act as if that's a problem. This team has TFB under center. It should be a pass oriented team. Ideally, you also want a great ground game, but you go with your strength, and this team's greatest strength is the guy at QB.

Let me give you a suggestion, since this year's losses are being pointed to in this annual waste of time, and Shmessy seems fixated on the Dolphins game. Go take a look at the runs in that game.

Drives that failed to score....

11 yard run for a 1st down, followed by a -3 yard run that put the team in 2nd and 13.

Run on 2nd and 6 gets only 1 yard, setting up 3rd and 5

Missed field goal

Run on 1st down gets just 2 yards, sets up 2nd and 8

Final drive where Brady is picked in the endzone after no PI was called.


Other than the drive that led to a missed field goal, every non-scoring drive got bogged down by a bad run, which led to the Patriots being put into passing down situations. It's not that runs were being avoided. It's that runs were failing.


Because situational football

 

[BradyFTW!]

So here are the numbers to compare, along with the NFL averages in both wins/losses. As we suspected, the Patriots came in higher than the NFL average in their 4 losses, as they threw the ball about 70% of the time in those four games. As we know, those 4 games were all within one score, so it's not like they were coming from behind as much as some may believe.

One thing to keep in mind is that different opponents will warrant different gameplans, so it does make sense to think that we'd have gone pass heavy against teams like CIN.

(courtesy of Jeff Howe and the Boston Herald) :



"The Patriots’ play-calling splits clearly favored the running game in their 12 wins, when 55.4 percent of their plays were passes and 44.6 percent were runs. On the whole, 58.4 percent of the NFL’s offensive plays this season were passes, so the Pats were more run-heavy in victory.

In defeat, the Patriots threw the ball 69.1 percent of the time and ran it on 30.9 percent of their plays. Teams threw the ball 64.1 percent of the time in losses this season, so the Pats came in higher than the league average."

-------------

But it's this paragraph that may be most telling, and the source of the "issue" that many fans see, as we had leads in 3/4 of those four losses in the second half and were actually running at a better clip than in our 12 wins:

(again...courtesy of Jeff Howe and the Herald)

"It was also surprising to see the Patriots bail on the run in the second half when they gave away leads in losses to the Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, and it’s not really for a lack of execution. They actually averaged 4.39 yards per carry in wins but 4.41 yards per rush in losses."

That absolutely does hit the crux of it. The Pats have a really odd tendency of abandoning the run when they're both

A) leading late in the game, and
B) the run is working

They did it again this past Sunday for a stretch in the middle of the fourth quarter, before finally going back to the run to seal the deal after an interception made it a one-score game.

Hopefully it doesn't happen yet again in the playoffs.

 

[shmessy]

This team has TFB under center. It should be a pass oriented team. Ideally, you also want a great ground game, but you go with your strength, and this team's greatest strength is the guy at QB.

Here's news for you: Brady cannot both throw AND catch the ball. Someone has to catch the ball also.

Even a tall, Brazilian supermodel knows that.

 

[Double TE]

Here's news for you: Brady cannot both throw AND catch the ball. Someone has to catch the ball also.

Even a tall, Brazilian supermodel knows that.

Now thats funny!

Unfortunately its also true. I am hopeful Management sees that next year and gets TB at least two more weapons. We likely won't see Gronk until week 8 or so (again..sigh). Amendola should be better and hopefully Edelman is back but I hope they go and get Decker from Denver. A big red zone target, sure hands and still in his prime. Either that or trade for Fitz. Brady has maybe three more excellent years left. I'd hate for him to be throwing to Thompkins and Dobson as his primary targets for those years if Gronk and Amendola continue to be plagued with injuries and if Edelman is not back.

 

[Deus Irae]

Here's news for you: Brady cannot both throw AND catch the ball. Someone has to catch the ball also.

Even a tall, Brazilian supermodel knows that.

Here's news for you. You, and all the rest of the people who were so thrilled about having all the rookie receivers, got what you wanted. Rookie receivers played a lot. They got a lot of opportunities. That's what you all clamored for, while the rest of us warned that this would probably lead to issues because of the overall makeup of the group, and the fragility of the veterans. Not only that, but 3 of the 4 losses had at least two of the Amendola/Edelman/Gronk trio playing, and all 3 played in the Carolina game.

Now, looking back at a 4-loss season, you're crying because of what you perceive as a run/pass imbalance, ignoring the evidence that undermines that gripe, and falling back on receiver woes.


Cake/eat/etc...

 

[BradyFTW!]

Now thats funny!

Unfortunately its also true. I am hopeful Management sees that next year and gets TB at least two more weapons. We likely won't see Gronk until week 8 or so (again..sigh). Amendola should be better and hopefully Edelman is back but I hope they go and get Decker from Denver. A big red zone target, sure hands and still in his prime. Either that or trade for Fitz. Brady has maybe three more excellent years left. I'd hate for him to be throwing to Thompkins and Dobson as his primary targets for those years if Gronk and Amendola continue to be plagued with injuries and if Edelman is not back.

I don't think this problem was unforeseen, or anything. The FO has been pretty proactive about making sure that Brady has weapons, but this season was just the perfect storm for taking them all away. Between injuries and jail most of the guys that were supposed to be headlining the offense are gone now. There's not a ton that you can do to stop that train once it gets a head of steam and the season starts.

This offseason will give Gronk, Amendola and Dobson time to heal, Dobson, Thompkins, and Boyce time to grow as players (and WRs do typically show a lot of improvement between years 1 and 2) and an opportunity to move forward knowing that Hernandez is gone, since by the time he got arrested there was no real opportunity to replace him.

I'm pretty optimistic that, even if they stand pat and let development and healing do the work, they'll have a much better receiving corps next year than they do right now. And that's even if they lose Edelman in FA.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Heh, "if" is a nice way to put it...maybe if they ran the ball more, there would be no "if" and the Patriots would have home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The point is that running the ball only 22 times was not the reason they lost the game. They lost the game because they couldn't make the catch when needed and their defense allowed a TD in the closing minutes.

 

[RobertWeathers]

If Gronk caught a TD pass that day it would have broken the NFL rules because he was on the IR.

Had Gronk been available, I'd be a LITTLE more comfortable with the 55-22 pass-run ratio. No Gronk, no Dobson, no Thompkins. Brady had an amazing game under the circumstances, but should not have left the Lamborghini parked in the garage.

Our two TE's were Hoomanawanui (who unexpectedly made the catch of his lifetime) and Mulligan.

Of course Gronk was on IR.

My point was that they lost because their WRs couldn't pull in a TD pass and their D couldn't come up with the stops on the final MIA drive.

They did not lose the game because the didn't run it 32 times instead of 22.

 

[Double TE]

Here's news for you. You, and all the rest of the people who were so thrilled about having all the rookie receivers, got what you wanted. Rookie receivers played a lot. They got a lot of opportunities. That's what you all clamored for, while the rest of us warned that this would probably lead to issues because of the overall makeup of the group, and the fragility of the veterans.

Now, looking back at a 4-loss season, you're crying because of what you perceiver as a run/pass imbalance, ignoring the evidence that undermines that gripe, and falling back on receiver woes.


Cake/eat/etc...

What? Hold on here. It was supposed to be primarily based on Amendola, Gronk and Vereen. Amendola tore his groin, Vereen broke his hand and Gronk was out longer than expected AND then obviously hurt his knee. Thompkins and Dobson are OK but far from great and are also HURT!!

The 12-4 is an absolute miracle but many games were nailbiters (Houston, Clev, Buffalo (1st meeting), Jets, New Orleans....The key for the playoffs has to be the running game. You can throw any stat at me you like. If they go empty backfield and throw 75% of the time in the playoffs they WILL LOSE!

The strength of this team at this time consists of the O Line, the RBs and and a GOAT QB who can make an undrafted FA Rookie and a 2nd round pick rookie WR and make them look decent. But lets be honest, other than Edelman no one on the Pats receiving corp. scares the oppositions D coordinator and requires double teams. If we had Gronk it would be a completely different story.

 

[Double TE]

I don't think this problem was unforeseen, or anything. The FO has been pretty proactive about making sure that Brady has weapons, but this season was just the perfect storm for taking them all away. Between injuries and jail most of the guys that were supposed to be headlining the offense are gone now. There's not a ton that you can do to stop that train once it gets a head of steam and the season starts.

This offseason will give Gronk, Amendola and Dobson time to heal, Dobson, Thompkins, and Boyce time to grow as players (and WRs do typically show a lot of improvement between years 1 and 2) and an opportunity to move forward knowing that Hernandez is gone, since by the time he got arrested there was no real opportunity to replace him.

I'm pretty optimistic that, even if they stand pat and let development and healing do the work, they'll have a much better receiving corps next year than they do right now. And that's even if they lose Edelman in FA.

I do not disagree. I only say if you have a GOAT QB and his time is running out is it enough to have decent receivers with the hope of them becoming very good or do you go and get an excellent weapon to complement Gronk and Amendola...NOW? Thats all I am saying. If Brady was 32, then I'd be fine with seeing what Boyce, Thompkin and Dobson will become. He is 36.

 

[Nunchucks]

The point is that running the ball only 22 times was not the reason they lost the game. They lost the game because they couldn't make the catch when needed and their defense allowed a TD in the closing minutes.

Maybe if they ran the ball more and used more time, they wouldn't have to rely on a short WR to make a contested catch for the win, the outcome would have been different.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Maybe if they ran the ball more and used more time, they wouldn't have to rely on a short WR to make a contested catch for the win, the outcome would have been different.

You cannot prove that.

What I can prove is that if Edelman or Amendola make their respective catches and score or the Pats stop MIA on 4th and 5 or 3rd and whatever, they win the game and we aren't having this discussion.

 

[Nunchucks]

You cannot prove that.

What I can prove is that if Edelman or Amendola make their respective catches and score or the Pats stop MIA on 4th and 5 or 3rd and whatever, they win the game and we aren't having this discussion.

Your "what if" is just as far fetched as my "what if" except that we know they didn't catch the ball. And to honestly expect them to make those catches is asking more than you should.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I don't think this problem was unforeseen, or anything. The FO has been pretty proactive about making sure that Brady has weapons, but this season was just the perfect storm for taking them all away. Between injuries and jail most of the guys that were supposed to be headlining the offense are gone now. There's not a ton that you can do to stop that train once it gets a head of steam and the season starts.

This offseason will give Gronk, Amendola and Dobson time to heal, Dobson, Thompkins, and Boyce time to grow as players (and WRs do typically show a lot of improvement between years 1 and 2) and an opportunity to move forward knowing that Hernandez is gone, since by the time he got arrested there was no real opportunity to replace him.

I'm pretty optimistic that, even if they stand pat and let development and healing do the work, they'll have a much better receiving corps next year than they do right now. And that's even if they lose Edelman in FA.

Go look at every NFL team with a very good record and there are handful of plays a game that decide the outcome. Even teams like SEA, DEN, SF have them. Especially SEA.

You can make just as good an argument that the Pats could be 15-1, 14-2 or 9-7.

Bottom line is that good teams make plays when plays need to be made. Could be due to talent level, play selection, luck, bounces, preparation, urgency, etc. Doesn't matter. Bottom line is that for the most part, this team makes plays to win regardless of how often the run or pass the football.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Your "what if" is just as far fetched as my "what if" except that we know they didn't catch the ball. And to honestly expect them to make those catches is asking more than you should.

Amendola makes the catch (which was not as difficult for an NFL WR to make as you say it is) or they stop MIA on 4th and 5 the game is over.

 

[shmessy]

Maybe if they ran the ball more and used more time, they wouldn't have to rely on a short WR to make a contested catch for the win, the outcome would have been different.

Exactly.

What Deus fails to understand in his zeal for Brady to throw the ball 55 times in a game where he had only two proven WRs is that the Jets and Bills beat that same team the following 2 weeks by a combined 39-7 by running a combined 97 times.

The Jets averaged a mere 3.7 YPC and won easily.

The Bills averaged a mere 4.0 YPC and won easily

Meanwhile, the Pats had to abandon a running game that averaged 4.4 so that Brady could throw to Hoomanawanui/Mulligan,Amendola/Edelman/Boyce/Develin and lost.

 

[letekro]

It is a nice sentiment, but practically, if the running game is not working, it is virtually impossible to just stick with it if your team falls behind, particularly in the playoffs, on blind faith that it will start to work. I would like to see them run more in the red zone--seems like their best option.

 

[shmessy]

It is a nice sentiment, but practically, if the running game is not working, it is virtually impossible to just stick with it if your team falls behind, particularly in the playoffs, on blind faith that it will start to work. I would like to see them run more in the red zone--seems like their best option.

I agree.

The Jets averaged 3.7 YPC.

The Bills averaged 4.0 YPC.

They won while sticking with their run with those averages.

The Pats panicked away from a 4.4 YPC and had Brady force it to Amendola/Edelman and.......Hoomanawanui/Mulligan/Boyce.

 

[Nunchucks]

Maybe not David Tyree difficult, but still pretty tough.