Shockingly Obvious: McDaniels, Don't Be Afraid of the Run!!!

[RayClay]

This offense feels very 2009ish right now. It's even worse, in the sense that 2009 had two players you had to shut down (Welker, Moss). Right now, just shutting down Edelman would cripple this offense. Look for opposing teams to focus on doing just that.

Can't really disagree but I think they can try to bulldoze teams more to make up for it. Might as well split Vereen out wide too, who's kidding who?

If Dobson's foot isn't healed (if that's his problem) I think he's done for the year. Those little bones don't heal quick.

 

[TyronePoole]

Well, if someone can complete 10-20 yard passes every play, they should never run, but (as the part I read and posted says) it's some equation about average gain per play.

You said it didn't say what I said, so I quoted it. Then that didn't count because i didn't prove I read every bit. I read it. It's a waste of time.

It doesn't relate to football, I explained why and all you could say is I'm wrong and it didn't say what i said it did (until I quoted it).

It didn't say that, it said that his past work had shown through average ypp that passes gain more than yards as a baseline for the NFL. That was a preface to the article that had zero to do with it's thesis or anything I posted.

It's not an equation about "average gain per play."

Not understanding something that isn't super easy to digest at first glance or is counter-intuitive to your awesome years as a REAL football fan who just KNOWS how the game is played doesn't mean you stomp your feet and start belligerently arguing from ignorance. I mean the fear that you just don't get it therefore your immediate reaction has to be to dismiss it could not be more transparent. Like the fact that you would conclude that hurr durr it's just some geek with a spreadsheet who hasn't considered all the amazing nuances of the game that RayClay football fan knows about and not a bunch of super smart analytics experts who are consulted with in a wide range of professional sports contexts is extremely telling here.

I mean that's your first reaction: this guy probably hasn't considered FIRST DOWNS!!!

LOL

Perhaps they could just run the ball for, say, the first 30 plays before beginning to pass.

As long as the defense doesn't catch on since otherwise that could be the fourth quarter. Of course if they throw two eighty yard passes in the first quarter, they could shut it down and hold with their 40 yard per play average, a sure winner.

Holy **** I'm actually amazed at how stupid this is. I'm pretty sure lolDeus is just trolling because he's lolDeus and that's pretty much all he does but I think you might actually believe this is a meaningful criticism or means anything at all. Just wow.

Have a good night fellas.

 

[fnordcircle]

Appeals to authority are always pretty lame, but it's especially rich when it comes from Deus. Next time you're inclined to criticize the personnel decisions, just remember that all criticism is rendered invalid by their winning percentage.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

Eating ice cream makes the weather warmer.

 

[fnordcircle]

Eating ice cream makes the weather warmer.

Holy ****, that's as perfect a post as I've read.

 

[Kontradiction]

Those are certainly the 2 biggest concerns that I have going in to the postseason, the defense, and our lack of a real downfield receiver. If they can overcome those issues, they should be in pretty good shape.

You should throw red zone offense in there, as well.

 

[ivanvamp]

The other side of that coin is that this is easily the worst passing offense that the Pats have had since 2006.

And yet still put up 4300 yards and a 25/11 TD/INT ratio.

 

[RIpats88]

This offense feels very 2009ish right now. It's even worse, in the sense that 2009 had two players you had to shut down (Welker, Moss). Right now, just shutting down Edelman would cripple this offense. Look for opposing teams to focus on doing just that.

Vereen, Amendola certainly have the ability to put up big games...look at vereen vs. the browns, he had 150+ yards. or Amendola vs the dolphins. the dolphins made an effort to take out vereen and amendola exploded for 130yards

not to mention a healthy Thompkins, or maybe Dobson if he can overcome this latest foot injury(hopefully they were being more precautionary after he re-injured it) both have the ability to play a solid game


I think if we can run like we have the past 2 weeks(where brady basically played game manager) we are in good shape offensively. I mean we put 30+ points on the ravens/Bills with brady barely passing the ball..that has to make you feel good. because as we saw against the dolphins/browns brady can still move the ball passing

 

[Deus Irae]

Vereen, Amendola certainly have the ability to put up big games...look at vereen vs. the browns, he had 150+ yards. or Amendola vs the dolphins. the dolphins made an effort to take out vereen and amendola exploded for 130yards

not to mention a healthy Thompkins, or maybe Dobson if he can overcome this latest foot injury(hopefully they were being more precautionary after he re-injured it) both have the ability to play a solid game


I think if we can run like we have the past 2 weeks(where brady basically played game manager) we are in good shape offensively. I mean we put 30+ points on the ravens/Bills with brady barely passing the ball..that has to make you feel good. because as we saw against the dolphins/browns brady can still move the ball passing

My point is that he's the only real and consistent 'threat' right now. Vereen is dropping too many passes and costing INTs, even when he's healthy. Gronk's on the shelf. Dobson's inconsistent even when in there. Amendola's a shell of what he needs to be. Thompkins isn't a player you have to worry about.

In 2009, Maroney had a 123 yard game in 2009 (7.69 y/a). That didn't mean teams needed to worry about him. Edelman had an 8 catch game and a 10 catch game. Same thing. As BB said on film, you shut down Welker and Moss and you shut down the Patriots.

In 2013, you shut down Edelman (2 catches against Bengals, 3 against Carolina, 5 for 44 against NYJ). There was a 6 game stretch were Edelman wasn't doing much (10/6-11/18), and the Patriots went 3-3 in that stretch.

 

[PATS16N0]

Yeah, I think we're all waiting to see if we're reliving 2001 or 2006.

 

[shmessy]

My original point - - which I think a minority of people here don't seem to see is that "... in 3 of those 4 losses, McDaniels had the Pass to Run ratio at greater than 2-1 (and the other was 8-5) even though the run was averaging in the mid 4's in each game.

To those having issue with that concern, do you actually want a STEEPER than 2-1 Pass-to-Run ratio in the playoffs for the Patriots given the differences in the WR/TE personnel vs. the RB personnel? Given how strong and deep the running game is compared to a shaky passing game - now missing any decent TE -do you really want running plays to be less than 33% of the play calling for the Pats in the playoffs?

 

[doesntmatter1]

I agree with pretty much everything that has been said like running the ball more frequently and stopping edelman stops us. But I disagree with it when it comes to the Panther game. The offense scored on almost every possession, which is its primary goal, and was very efficient. I entirely blame our third down defense for that loss. Cam scrambled and dinked and dunked us the entire game. If we had stopped one of the many third downs he converted, we win.

 

[shmessy]

I agree with pretty much everything that has been said like running the ball more frequently and stopping edelman stops us. But I disagree with it when it comes to the Panther game. The offense scored on almost every possession, which is its primary goal, and was very efficient. I entirely blame our third down defense for that loss. Cam scrambled and dinked and dunked us the entire game. If we had stopped one of the many third downs he converted, we win.

Great point, DM1.

Actually, the Panther game was NOT much of an outlier at all.

That loss was the ONLY one of the Pats 4 losses where there was NOT a steeper than 2-1 Pass-to-Run ratio! It was 40-25. And, not surprisingly, the offense was moderately efficient on the road against an excellent defense.

 

[supafly]

Yeah, I think we're all waiting to see if we're reliving 2001 or 2006.

Actually, it could be 2001; it could be 2006; or it could be 2005/2009 just the same.

No one really knows of course.

One positive aspect is that there seems to be more ability to tough out wins, while overcoming adversity than in the past. On the other hand, one negative aspect is the obvious lack of talent and depth in certain areas.

We all know that if we win one home game on 1/11, we'll be going to the AFFCG, so that's the first goal, then they'll see how the dice come up. I think many of us are concerned that they'll be a bit short this year, but there are aspects of the team that most are impressed with too. It's kind of a weird year in many ways.

 

[supafly]

You should throw red zone offense in there, as well.

For sure. I'm not exactly certain what the final numbers ended up being, but we went right back to struggling in the red zone all over again yesterday after a nice improvement at Baltimore the week before.

Of course, I think it's safe to say that the lack of any type of actual downfield receiving threat kind of goes hand in hand with the issues in the RZ too though. As much as people seem to be worried about Dobson's future this season, I honestly don't think he adds too much at the moment. Unfortunately, his injury kind of seemed to ruin any good momentum that he was building coming off of his peak in the Steelers game.

If Thompkins/Dobson aren't going to contribute too much, then we seriously have to hope that either Collie comes back and sets the world on fire (doubtful), the TEs somehow contribute (doubtful), or we continue to somehow get it done with Amendola/Edelman + Shane Vereen--which is scary to think about vs good teams.

Sheer luck and someone possibly beating Denver could go an awful long way towards helping this cause in the playoffs...an awful long way.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Maybe I'm doing this wrong, but it sure looks like the imbalance began before playing catch up in the fourth.

Drive Finder - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Drive Finder - Pro-Football-Reference.com

I think it has far more to do with basic offensive philosophies than it does with a particular coach or player. I'm certain there are cases where the Pats went pass happy early and won. Otherwise I'm sure an adjustment would have been made.

Daring the Pats to air it out isn't a recipe for victory, but it appears to be the only shot at it. Brady and the running game are just too efficient to sit back and hope they mess up. That said I'd still like to see the Pats run it a couple more times early in spite of what the defense is showing.

 

[TonyTucker]

I've got no problem with them throwing 45 times, if it's working. Clearly on Sunday, Brady could not complete a pass more than 5 yards, and the running game was gashing them for 6+ ypc. Yet Clown Shoes still felt the need to call passes in the dirt that ended up making that game closer at the end than it needed to be.

 

[supafly]

I've got no problem with them throwing 45 times, if it's working. Clearly on Sunday, Brady could not complete a pass more than 5 yards, and the running game was gashing them for 6+ ypc. Yet Clown Shoes still felt the need to call passes in the dirt that ended up making that game closer at the end than it needed to be.

Who exactly, is "clown shoes?" Possibly even more importantly, why is he referred to as clown shoes?

By the way, I take offense as I wear size 12's, and I even actually bought a pair of 13's the other day at Johnston and Murphy due to the fact that they were the only pair left and on sale

 

[supafly]

So here are the numbers to compare, along with the NFL averages in both wins/losses. As we suspected, the Patriots came in higher than the NFL average in their 4 losses, as they threw the ball about 70% of the time in those four games. As we know, those 4 games were all within one score, so it's not like they were coming from behind as much as some may believe.

One thing to keep in mind is that different opponents will warrant different gameplans, so it does make sense to think that we'd have gone pass heavy against teams like CIN.

(courtesy of Jeff Howe and the Boston Herald) :



"The Patriots’ play-calling splits clearly favored the running game in their 12 wins, when 55.4 percent of their plays were passes and 44.6 percent were runs. On the whole, 58.4 percent of the NFL’s offensive plays this season were passes, so the Pats were more run-heavy in victory.

In defeat, the Patriots threw the ball 69.1 percent of the time and ran it on 30.9 percent of their plays. Teams threw the ball 64.1 percent of the time in losses this season, so the Pats came in higher than the league average."

-------------

But it's this paragraph that may be most telling, and the source of the "issue" that many fans see, as we had leads in 3/4 of those four losses in the second half and were actually running at a better clip than in our 12 wins:

(again...courtesy of Jeff Howe and the Herald)

"It was also surprising to see the Patriots bail on the run in the second half when they gave away leads in losses to the Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, and it’s not really for a lack of execution. They actually averaged 4.39 yards per carry in wins but 4.41 yards per rush in losses."

 

[shmessy]

So here are the numbers to compare, along with the NFL averages in both wins/losses. As we suspected, the Patriots came in higher than the NFL average in their 4 losses, as they threw the ball about 70% of the time in those four games. As we know, those 4 games were all within one score, so it's not like they were coming from behind as much as some may believe.

One thing to keep in mind is that different opponents will warrant different gameplans, so it does make sense to think that we'd have gone pass heavy against teams like CIN.

(courtesy of Jeff Howe and the Boston Herald) :



"The Patriots’ play-calling splits clearly favored the running game in their 12 wins, when 55.4 percent of their plays were passes and 44.6 percent were runs. On the whole, 58.4 percent of the NFL’s offensive plays this season were passes, so the Pats were more run-heavy in victory.

In defeat, the Patriots threw the ball 69.1 percent of the time and ran it on 30.9 percent of their plays. Teams threw the ball 64.1 percent of the time in losses this season, so the Pats came in higher than the league average."

-------------

But it's this paragraph that may be most telling, and the source of the "issue" that many fans see, as we had leads in 3/4 of those four losses in the second half and were actually running at a better clip than in our 12 wins:

(again...courtesy of Jeff Howe and the Herald)

"It was also surprising to see the Patriots bail on the run in the second half when they gave away leads in losses to the Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, and it’s not really for a lack of execution. They actually averaged 4.39 yards per carry in wins but 4.41 yards per rush in losses."

Well put by Jeff Howe. It can't be any clearer than that, really.