Roster projections after week 3 of the preseason..

[Brady6]

Below is my roster projection after 3 weeks of the preseason.

QB (2) Brady, Mallett
RB (5) Ridley, Vereen, Blount, Bolden, Washington
WR (6) Amendola, Thompkins, Dobson, Boyce, Edelman, Slater
TE (4) Gronkowski, Sudfeld, Ballard, Fells
C (2) Wendell, Stankiewitch
G (3) Mankins, Cannon, Connolly
T (3) Solder, Vollmer, Svitek
DE (6) Jones, Ninkovich, Benard, Buchanan, Cunningham, Francis
DT (3) Wilfork, Kelly, Forston
ILB(2) Spikes, Beauharnais
OLB(4) Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Fletcher
CB (5) Talib, Dennard, Arrington, Dowling, Ryan
SS (3) Wilson, Gregory, Wilson
FS (2) McCourty, Harmon
ST (3) Gostkowski, Mesko, Aiken
PUP (2) Armstead, Harrison

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: Pats Picker 2013

Given how poorly Bequette has played in year 1 and now in the preseason I think he can be cut and retained on the practice squad. I’ve cut Cole and Ebner but would likely bring them back in the early season once we make some determinations on guys like Dowling and Cunningham, I am confident they both will linger on the free agent market.

Please share your roster projections

 

[JMC00]

Below is my roster projection after 3 weeks of the preseason.

QB (2) Brady, Mallett
RB (5) Ridley, Vereen, Blount, Bolden, Washington
WR (6) Amendola, Thompkins, Dobson, Boyce, Edelman, Slater
TE (4) Gronkowski, Sudfeld, Ballard, Fells
C (2) Wendell, Stankiewitch
G (3) Mankins, Cannon, Connolly
T (3) Solder, Vollmer, Svitek
DE (6) Jones, Ninkovich, Benard, Buchanan, Cunningham, Francis
DT (3) Wilfork, Kelly, Forston
ILB(2) Spikes, Beauharnais
OLB(4) Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Fletcher
CB (5) Talib, Dennard, Arrington, Dowling, Ryan
SS (3) Wilson, Gregory, Wilson
FS (2) McCourty, Harmon
ST (3) Gostkowski, Mesko, Aiken
PUP (2) Armstead, Harrison

Yep 100% agree with this.

Although I can see it being either Cole or Dowling.

Or who knows maybe there is a surprise CB cut from another team that Bill thinks could contribute on ST and be a good enough dependable 4th or 5th CB

 

[mgteich]

This guess is as good as any at this point.

A) I would expect Gronkowski to be on the PUP list. The roster spot would go to Devlin or Hooman.

B) I would have Cole over Beauharnais.

C) I agree with the interesting call on Cunningham. He seems worth keeping for this season, given just how little that we have gotten from Francis, Buchanan and Bequette.

D) I'm still not convinced that we are carrying all five of these running backs. Washington and Bolden seem especially vulnerable. Also, I am at all sure of Fells, but I also have them all on the 53 for now.

E) I expect 2-3 players from other teams to make this roster by Game 2.

Below is my roster projection after 3 weeks of the preseason.

QB (2) Brady, Mallett
RB (5) Ridley, Vereen, Blount, Bolden, Washington
WR (6) Amendola, Thompkins, Dobson, Boyce, Edelman, Slater
TE (4) Gronkowski, Sudfeld, Ballard, Fells
C (2) Wendell, Stankiewitch
G (3) Mankins, Cannon, Connolly
T (3) Solder, Vollmer, Svitek
DE (6) Jones, Ninkovich, Benard, Buchanan, Cunningham, Francis
DT (3) Wilfork, Kelly, Forston
ILB(2) Spikes, Beauharnais
OLB(4) Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Fletcher
CB (5) Talib, Dennard, Arrington, Dowling, Ryan
SS (3) Wilson, Gregory, Wilson
FS (2) McCourty, Harmon
ST (3) Gostkowski, Mesko, Aiken
PUP (2) Armstead, Harrison

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: Pats Picker 2013

Given how poorly Bequette has played in year 1 and now in the preseason I think he can be cut and retained on the practice squad. I’ve cut Cole and Ebner but would likely bring them back in the early season once we make some determinations on guys like Dowling and Cunningham, I am confident they both will linger on the free agent market.

Please share your roster projections

 

[Brady6]

Re: Re: Roster projections after week 3 of the preseason..

This guess is as good as any at this point.

A) I would expect Gronkowski to be on the PUP list. The roster spot would go to Devlin or Hooman.

B) I would have Cole over Beauharnais.

C) I agree with the interesting call on Cunningham. He seems worth keeping for this season, given just how little that we have gotten from Francis, Buchanan and Bequette.

D) I'm still not convinced that we are carrying all five of these running backs. Washington and Bolden seem especially vulnerable. Also, I am at all sure of Fells, but I also have them all on the 53 for now.

E) I expect 2-3 players from other teams to make this roster by Game 2.

Good stuff as usual MG, I can't argue against anything you've said.

I actually hope we can add some type of depth at DT/NT in the form of a veteran, even if we play small a lot an injury to Wilfork or Kelly would devastate us.

 

[JMC00]

This guess is as good as any at this point.

A) I would expect Gronkowski to be on the PUP list. The roster spot would go to Devlin or Hooman.

If Week 4-6 was against Cleveland, Carolina and Miami and not their toughest 3 game stretch of the season I might agree with that.

But right now the report was he was on track for a mid-September return.

 

[mgteich]

It depends what "a mid-Sepetember" return means. If it means that he will be in game shape, ready to play by mid-September, then he certainly won't be put on the PUP List.

If Week 4-6 was against Cleveland, Carolina and Miami and not their toughest 3 game stretch of the season I might agree with that.

But right now the report was he was on track for a mid-September return.

 

[supafly]

It depends what "a mid-Sepetember" return means. If it means that he will be in game shape, ready to play by mid-September, then he certainly won't be put on the PUP List.

Keeping him on the PUP list would mean that he could not take part in any practices for the next 9 weeks. Do you find that to be reasonable to think that Belichick won't want Gronk taking part in any practices at all for at least 9 weeks?

That would mean that he'd likely start to practice 9 weeks from now and then it'd take him another 2-3 weeks to get back into "game ready shape," meaning that he'd then be playing in 11-12 weeks from now...

In other words, since it's currently the end of August (month 8), that would then put him on track to play in an actual game at the end of November (month 11). That's when Terrell Suggs came back last year from his supposedly season ending Achilles injury. So, if Gronk is put on the in-season PUP list, we can realistically expect him to return for the stretch run of the post-Thanksgiving season/playoffs.

Unless we're not expecting Gronk to play until the month of November, he's going to be on the 53 man roster. If he isn't on the 53 man roster, it's VERY bad news to the progression of his recovery, because that is a long, long way off from the "mid-September" reports that we've heard since day one, along with all of the recent positive reports about him being "on pace," and "ahead of schedule."

 

[Sciz]

QB (2) Brady, Mallett
RB (5) Ridley, Vereen, Blount, Washington, Develin
WR (6) Amendola, Thompkins, Edelman, Dobson, Boyce, Slater
TE (3) Gronkowski, Sudfeld, Ballard
C (1) Wendell
G (4) Mankins, Connolly, Cannon, Zusevics
T (3) Vollmer, Solder, Svitek
DE (5) Jones, Ninkovich, Cunningham, Francis, Benard
DT (4) Wilfork, Kelly, Forston, Vellano
ILB(3) Spikes, Fletcher, Beauharnais
OLB(3) Mayo, Hightower, Collins
CB (5) Talib, Dennard, Arrington, Ryan, Dowling
SS (3) Wilson, Wilson, Ebner
FS (3) McCourty, Harmon, Gregory
ST (3) Gostkowski, Mesko, Aiken

NFI: Armond Armstead, Mark Harrison

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: Pats Picker 2013

I actually only had 51 guys going through the first time. Benard and Gregory are the guys that I wish wouldn't make it, but added because I expect them to. No Hoomanawanui or Fells, with the much cheaper Develin filling the role as the extra run blocker and STer. Gronk avoids PUP with the goal of returning week 4. Ebner may be a candidate for the temporary IR, but I'll include him for now. Probably add Cole if he's not there.

 

[mgteich]

Being on PUP, Gronk starts practice in mid-October and is available for all of November

If Gronk is ready to go mid-September, then he will available for all of October.

It is certainly worth the roster spot to have Gronk a month earlier. The open question is one for the medical and training staff to answer.

Keeping him on the PUP list would mean that he could not take part in any practices for the next 9 weeks. Do you find that to be reasonable to think that Belichick won't want Gronk taking part in any practices at all for at least 9 weeks?

That would mean that he'd likely start to practice 9 weeks from now and then it'd take him another 2-3 weeks to get back into "game ready shape," meaning that he'd then be playing in 11-12 weeks from now...

In other words, since it's currently the end of August (month 8), that would then put him on track to play in an actual game at the end of November (month 11). That's when Terrell Suggs came back last year from his supposedly season ending Achilles injury. So, if Gronk is put on the in-season PUP list, we can realistically expect him to return for the stretch run of the post-Thanksgiving season/playoffs.

Unless we're not expecting Gronk to play until the month of November, he's going to be on the 53 man roster. If he isn't on the 53 man roster, it's VERY bad news to the progression of his recovery, because that is a long, long way off from the "mid-September" reports that we've heard since day one, along with all of the recent positive reports about him being "on pace," and "ahead of schedule."

 

[mgteich]

To be clear, you are voluntarily limiting us to 2 TE's for at least 4 games and perhaps more.
I don't see this happening. Even the emergency backup blocking TE (Cannon) is injured.

And yes, I still prefer Cole to Beauharnais. (I figure that if I post it often enough, it might happen).

QB (2) Brady, Mallett
RB (5) Ridley, Vereen, Blount, Washington, Develin
WR (6) Amendola, Thompkins, Edelman, Dobson, Boyce, Slater
TE (3) Gronkowski, Sudfeld, Ballard
C (1) Wendell
G (4) Mankins, Connolly, Cannon, Zusevics
T (3) Vollmer, Solder, Svitek
DE (5) Jones, Ninkovich, Cunningham, Francis, Benard
DT (4) Wilfork, Kelly, Forston, Vellano
ILB(3) Spikes, Fletcher, Beauharnais
OLB(3) Mayo, Hightower, Collins
CB (5) Talib, Dennard, Arrington, Ryan, Dowling
SS (3) Wilson, Wilson, Ebner
FS (3) McCourty, Harmon, Gregory
ST (3) Gostkowski, Mesko, Aiken

NFI: Armond Armstead, Mark Harrison

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: Pats Picker 2013

I actually only had 51 guys going through the first time. Benard and Gregory are the guys that I wish wouldn't make it, but added because I expect them to. No Hoomanawanui or Fells, with the much cheaper Develin filling the role as the extra run blocker and STer. Gronk avoids PUP with the goal of returning week 4. Ebner may be a candidate for the temporary IR, but I'll include him for now. Probably add Cole if he's not there.

 

[supafly]

Being on PUP, Gronk starts practice in mid-October and is available for all of November

Either way, we're still 2 full weeks+ away from the start of the season, so he wouldn't be eligible to practice for another 8 weeks right?

Not even being able to practice for 2 more months seems awfully strange for a procedure that they figured they'd get out of the way now instead of at the end of the season due to his plate replacement in May.

If he practices in 2 months from now, he certainly would need a couple more weeks to be in game shape, so we'd be looking at him missing at least 50% of the season. The bye occurs in week ten, so if he can't even practice until the week of the 7th game, there's the off chance that they choose not to play him prior to the bye.

Even if he did play before the bye, 50% of the season is much different from "2-3-4" games...

Somebody's time table is way off here if he's put on PUP.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with your statements.

I also believe that it is in the best interest of the patriots to be publicly optimistic.

I will be overjoyed if Gronkowski is not put on the PUP list.

Even if he did play before the bye, 50% of the season is much different from "2-3-4" games...

Somebody's time table is way off here if he's put on PUP.

 

[Sciz]

To be clear, you are voluntarily limiting us to 2 TE's for at least 4 games and perhaps more.
I don't see this happening. Even the emergency backup blocking TE (Cannon) is injured.

And yes, I still prefer Cole to Beauharnais. (I figure that if I post it often enough, it might happen).

I have Gronk coming back week 4, so it's only three weeks, and those games are against the Bills, Jets, and Bucs. They can get through those three games with only two TEs, or even with only one TE if there's an injury. Now that the #3 WR is better than Branch and with an actual fullback on the roster, that's a risk I'd be willing to take. I don't see Hoomanawanui or a recovering Fells as worth the $1.3M salary to be the #3 TE for three games and then the #4 for the rest of the season.

 

[supafly]

I agree with your statements.

I also believe that it is in the best interest of the patriots to be publicly optimistic.

I will be overjoyed if Gronkowski is not put on the PUP list.

My main concern is that if he's put on PUP he cannot practice, and the lack of being able to practice for another 2+ months may have an enormous negative aspect involved for this particular season. We'd be looking at a significant time in the future for him to return, and possibly even another couple of games before he's fully back to "himself."

I don't personally think we have a "need" to put him on PUP just for the added roster spot. The negatives far outweigh the positives for a player of his caliber and importance.

If the player wasn't Rob Gronkowski (or Brady, Wilfork, etc) then I'd be in more agreement with placing him on PUP to free up a roster spot. Of course as you said, the possibility exists that he's far away from returning still, but his presence on the sidelines at camp etc tends to hint otherwise, at least in my opinion.

I still think the benefit of the mini-bye after week 2 may come into play regarding some extra time for his recovery, as we have those two games to start the season within 4 days of each other. He may have been expected to miss those first two games for awhile now, with an eye on returning in time for the end of September for week 3 or week 4.

 

[supafly]

Now that the #3 WR is better than Branch and with an actual fullback on the roster, that's a risk I'd be willing to take. I don't see Hoomanawanui or a recovering Fells as worth the $1.3M salary to be the #3 TE for three games and then the #4 for the rest of the season.

So you have Hooman and Fells as cuts then, or you have Devlin beating out a guy like either Bolden or Washington for the 5th RB spot?

Or both?

 

[Joker]

Develin's a nice kid, Supa...I will be Casablanca'd if he's NOT cut....

 

[doesntmatter1]

I'm still undecided on some guys but I have a hard number on certain posistions. I see no reason to have more than 4 de. I thought 6 last year was overkill and it was. Jones and Ninko played almost all of the snaps and the other guys became redundant and played dt or not at all like bequette. I'm also not a big fan of them playing dt when we should just go and find a real pass rushing dt that weighs at least 300lbs.

Year after year I always say 5 rb is too much. Simply not enough carries for them all to justify. Most teams get by with just three. I don't like rb to be st aces like slater and with 5 that is what bolden and/or washington would become. 4 is my max for this position.

I want tebow gone and I am undecided on A. wilson, ballard, dowling, and ebner. I noticed they like adrian as a lb but I honestly feel tavon is a better lb(i didn't say safety). I haven't seen a pass in ballard's direction and it looks like he is running in slow motion. Dowling needs to play and our shaky st performances have me questioning if we should cut ebner.

 

[Sciz]

So you have Hooman and Fells as cuts then, or you have Devlin beating out a guy like either Bolden or Washington for the 5th RB spot?

Or both?

I see it as a 4-way competition between Ho-oh, Fells, Ballard, and Develin, with Bolden being cut but being pretty unrelated to the other four, including Develin. In the 4-way competition, I'm making a few assumptions:
1. If either Hoomanawanui or Fells makes the roster, it'd be as the #3 TE until Gronk is hurt and the #4 when Gronk is healthy.
2. Sudfeld is entrenched as the #1 receiving TE when Gronk is hurt and #2 when Gronk is healthy.
3. While none of Ballard, Hoomanawanui, and Fells have shown a great ability to run block, Ballard has the most potential to improve in that regard as his knee gets healthier.
4. Any TEs outside of Gronk and Sudfeld will have very minor receiving roles.
5. The primary roles of any TE/FB outside of Gronk and Sudfeld are run-blocking and STs.
6. With rough rounding, each of Ho-oh and Fells costs $1M more to keep than each of Develin and Ballard.

Take all of those points into account, and I don't think the Pats would be losing much at all in the passing game by keeping Develin over an extra TE, but save money and add the extra dimension of a true fullback. He also replaced Hoomanawanui on the kick return unit in last night's game. Now one thing that wouldn't completely surprise me is if they leverage Hoomanawanui into taking a pay cut in order to keep his job, but I can't see the #4 TE for the majority of the season being worth $1.3M. That's not a big number taken in the context of the whole cap, but it's a lot if you think of it as almost triple what it'd cost to keep Develin.


Basically, I don't see any of these borderline TEs making any impact in the passing game, so they might as well go with the cheaper fullback that can fill the run-blocking and ST roles.

 

[supafly]

I haven't seen a pass in ballard's direction and it looks like he is running in slow motion.

I think his main strength is blocking, which is exactly why I wasn't one to reserve his bust in Canton during the offseason when so many here were automatically predicting it.

That said, I don't think there's any way that Ballard is cut. He played pretty much the entire half last night after only seeing 12 and 19 snaps in the first two games.

He isn't known for his speed, but it's possible that he continues to progress and adds more in the passing game as the year goes on. Either way, I don't think he catches anything more than 20-25 balls, but he's still worth keeping around for sure.

 

[supafly]

I see it as a 4-way competition between Ho-oh, Fells, Ballard, and Develin, with Bolden being cut but being pretty unrelated to the other four, including Develin. In the 4-way competition, I'm making a few assumptions:
1. If either Hoomanawanui or Fells makes the roster, it'd be as the #3 TE until Gronk is hurt and the #4 when Gronk is healthy.
2. Sudfeld is entrenched as the #1 receiving TE when Gronk is hurt and #2 when Gronk is healthy.
3. While none of Ballard, Hoomanawanui, and Fells have shown a great ability to run block, Ballard has the most potential to improve in that regard as his knee gets healthier.
4. Any TEs outside of Gronk and Sudfeld will have very minor receiving roles.
5. The primary roles of any TE/FB outside of Gronk and Sudfeld are run-blocking and STs.
6. With rough rounding, each of Ho-oh and Fells costs $1M more to keep than each of Develin and Ballard.

Take all of those points into account, and I don't think the Pats would be losing much at all in the passing game by keeping Develin over an extra TE, but save money and add the extra dimension of a true fullback. He also replaced Hoomanawanui on the kick return unit in last night's game. Now one thing that wouldn't completely surprise me is if they leverage Hoomanawanui into taking a pay cut in order to keep his job, but I can't see the #4 TE for the majority of the season being worth $1.3M. That's not a big number taken in the context of the whole cap, but it's a lot if you think of it as almost triple what it'd cost to keep Develin.


Basically, I don't see any of these borderline TEs making any impact in the passing game, so they might as well go with the cheaper fullback that can fill the run-blocking and ST roles.

Good thoughts as always. Thanks for the response.

In my opinion, we keep 4 TE's: Gronk, Sudfeld, Ballard, and Fells (as long as he isn't too injured--so I'm not sure of that aspect).

I haven't felt that keeping Hooman was in the cards for awhile now. He was worth tendering and served his purpose last season with Ballard out, Fells banged up for the duration, and both Hernandez/Gronkowski missing significant time; but I don't see much reasoning in keeping him at this point.

If Devlin is kept, I think he'll be taking one of the RB spots, which will be 5 if we don't keep Tebow and 4 if we do. Either way, I'd wipe Hooman right off the board automatically, and would think that the battle would then lie between Fells, Devlin, Bolden (and even potentially Tebow).