I have one major question about potential prospects at #23: How important is career production for a Patriots first round pick? I ask because some are seriously being considered as the Pats first pick, yet only have one productive season coupled with impressive workouts. Is that enough for Belichick & Co. -- or do the Pats require more proven production?
Define "production."
As fans, most of us hear the word and think 100 tackle games, 1,200 yd seasons, etc. All of which is one measure of production. Another measure to combine with 'statistical' production is 'performance' production.
We see threads demanding Hobbs and Sanders be benched, Seymour and Maroney be traded, yet they're still with the team? Neither Hobbs or Sanders have many interceptions, or forced fumbles, yet they start - and while BB is crucified by the more contemplative amongst us, NE goes on 18-0 runs with Hobbs and Sanders as starters. It would appear BB has a different production standard that goes well beyond stats, and the TV camera's view pf performance.
Let's look at Barwin, the same process will apply for Ayers:
Barwin saw action as a true freshman on Special Teams and as a reserve TE:
What was his assignment on each play? How does he grade out for his assignment? What offensive system did he play in? Does it emphasize the TE as a receiver or a blocker? Is his quarterback capable of executing? Was Barwin open on his route? Who was covering him? On those rare occasions the ball was thrown to him, did he make the catch? Was it a difficult catch? Was it a hands catch? Did he maintain control of the ball while being hit? How does he react with the ball in his hands? Was the ball secured quickly? What grades did his coaches give him for that game?
How many starts did Matt Cassel have? Yes, he was a 7th round pick and we're arguing #23 overall, but the same evaluation process is involved. If you look at the body of Barwin's work on offense, special teams, defense, and basketball, then 'performance' production isn't in doubt. For his statistical production; 31 receptions as a TE is good production, 11 sacks is good production, 15.5 TFL is good production, 7 PD is good production, 3 blocked kicks is good production.
We like to focus on the negative when we're evaluating, when we do look at the positive we get wrapped up in the big numbers or the hype and miss the other elements that led to those numbers. There are enough stories on NE's warroom mindset floating around to know this, BB wants to know what this prospect can do well to make NE succeed. I think that's a new thread...
Career production is impotant to BB, as is career starts, but it seems pretty clear to me that BB's "career" production differs wildly from what fans consider "production." Ayers and Barwin are not workout warriors, Barwin is not a one year wonder - his track record is very solid, just not at the same position for four years. Ayers is branded a one year wonder, but who played in front of him? If he moved between multiple positions, did he play his assignments correctly and perform that way? Perhaps Mike Mayock's one year wonder isn't quite the NFL evaluator's reality.
