So pretty much everyone felt that a rush linebacker was the biggest need the Patriots had going into the draft, and they finally addressed it with Jermaine Cunningham in the second round. I had watched some film on him, and mocked him to the Patriots at 53 in my "What the Patriots will do" mock of my mock sampler platter. Breaking him down, he seemed like a quality SEC defensive end, a little undersized but athletic, productive but not a tremendous standout in any area. Once the Patriots drafted him, I figured I'd go back and take a close look at him. The first thing that stands out is his rumored short shuttle time. Coming out of high school, he ran a confirmed sub 4.10 20 yard shuttle at a little over 200 pounds. Now at 266 pounds, he was rumored to have run between a 4.12 and 4.30 at his pro day. No matter where he truly fell in that range, if the time is accurate, that is an excellent result.
One trend I've noticed when evaluating pass rushers that made the transition to the NFL, especially this year and last, is that nearly all the successful smaller defensive ends and rush linebackers had good to great vertical leaps, broad jumps and short shuttle times. 40 times are almost irrelevant, as pass rushing is all about burst, flexibility to bend around the corner, and the ability to transfer speed to power. There isn't an elite pass rusher in the league that doesn't possess the ability to do at least one of those things at an elite level, and most possess two or all three. So about a month and a half ago, I started working on a stat to quickly compare prospects against current pros and each other in terms of how well they project as a pass rusher. When the Patriots drafted him, I quickly looked him up on my spreadsheet, and realized I hadn't put all his numbers in. Once I did, I ran it through a comparison of current rush linebackers, and he matched up well against some of the better pass rushers in the league. I didn't see anyone that he really resembled though, until I checked him against the 4-3 defensive ends, and one comparison became immediately obvious: Jared Allen.
Allen wasn't highly sought after in the 2004 draft. A 4th rounder, he tested pretty well athletically but didn't come from a major conference. What's interesting though, is that despite his pedestrian 40 time, 10 yard split, 3 cone time, vertical and bench press rep numbers, he had solid measurables in terms of weight (266, the same as Cunningham), height (6'5.4") and most importantly, broad jump (10') and short shuttle time (4.33 sec). The fact that he turned himself into one of the premier pass rushing specialists in the league should have been no surprise; at his size, those numbers indicated explosive ability on par with the better pass rushers already in the league. Comparing the Patriots' newest draftee Cunningham to Allen, we see some extremely similar numbers. Cunningham weighs the same amount, is an inch and a half shorter, but possesses superior vertical leap(35" to Allen's 33") and short shuttle numbers. The rest of their results are almost identical.
What does this mean? Nothing, right now. It's just a projection of athletic ability, and there are several other important factors that will come into play. But considering the level of competition Cunningham faced in college compared to Allen, his similar attributes in explosion oriented measures and size, and his superior athleticism, as evidenced by his ability to play in space at Florida, Cunningham's upside may be far greater than I originally estimated. Don't be surprised if he turns into a guy that is routinely in the top 10-15 players in the league in terms of sacks and pressures.
