Pro-Brady article in the NYT

[shmessy]

Not likely Dropped cases are almost always forgotten more easily, and quickly, than cases with controversial outcomes. That's been Goodell's smart play from the start. The idea that it's an unplayable move is ludicrous.

To the vast majority of the NFL fanbase, dropping this case would be the MOST controversial thing Goodell could do.

Do you really believe Jets, Colts, Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, etc fans are going forget a dropping of this case 'more easily and quickly'? Last time I looked, New England was only one team out of 32.

If he drops the case against Brady he is toast.

That is why this has to go to the courts. It is Goodell's only way to save his job. Have the courts adjudicate for Brady and he can still hope to keep the support of the other 31 teams by pointing out that he did whatever he could.

 

[shmessy]

Easy out for Goodell...

1. Zero game suspension for Brady.

2. Return draft picks to Patriots.

3a. Up penalty payment by Kraft to amount equal to Wells report.

or

3b. Sue Wells for $5 mil for shoddy reporting thus putting NFL in a bad position.

And then we woke up.........

 

[RunAmok]

To the vast majority of the NFL fanbase, dropping this case would be the MOST controversial thing Goodell could do.

Do you really believe Jets, Colts, Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, etc fans are going forget a dropping of this case 'more easily and quickly'? Last time I looked, New England was only one team out of 32.

If he drops the case against Brady he is toast.

That is why this has to go to the courts. It is Goodell's only way to save his job. Have the courts adjudicate for Brady and he can still hope to keep the support of the other 31 teams by pointing out that he did whatever he could.

At the end of the day, the 32 owners will decide Goodell's fate not the rage of the haters. Unless the fans of other NFL teams do something that impacts the owners bottom line then it's really just noise.

A smart Goodell would use this as an olive branch to the NFLPA and launch a much more comprehensive player conduct policy. He could then do sorta what Kraft did, fold for the good of the game while at the same time appearing to be magnanimous to the players association. Operative word here is "smart".

 

[PatsFanSince74]

To the vast majority of the NFL fanbase, dropping this case would be the MOST controversial thing Goodell could do.

Do you really believe Jets, Colts, Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, etc fans are going forget a dropping of this case 'more easily and quickly'? Last time I looked, New England was only one team out of 32.

If he drops the case against Brady he is toast.

That is why this has to go to the courts. It is Goodell's only way to save his job. Have the courts adjudicate for Brady and he can still hope to keep the support of the other 31 teams by pointing out that he did whatever he could.

I both agree and disagree with you on this.

I disagree in that I think the last thing Goodell wants is for this to end up in a Trial, where the NFL's dirty laundry will be exposed and where any ruling would likely excoriate the NFL in terms that would make his tenure as Commissioner short lived. He can't afford to have another embarrassing setback at the hands of an independent, third party.

However, I agree in that I believe that Goodell and the NFL's lawyers have concluded that the likelihood of a Court hearing this case is low and that, if it should take the case, the Court will rule on the very narrow point of whether the CBA affords players adequate due process by allowing the Commissioner to hear an Appeal of a decision made by someone who works for him. In that case, Goodell could argue that the problem was with the CBA to which the owners agreed.

The bottom line is that Goodell is in a very tough position. Does he throw a Hail Mary and hope that Brady takes a one or two game suspension without being exonerated? Or does he piss off 31 owners and their media lapdogs by exonerating him and taking the risk of going to Trial off the table? I think he throws the Hail Mary and hopes that the judge kicks the case back, should Brady go to court.

 

[shmessy]

At the end of the day, the 32 owners will decide Goodell's fate not the rage of the haters. Unless the fans of other NFL teams do something that impacts the owners bottom line then it's really just noise.

The 31 other owners ARE a subset of the haters.

I have yet to see Woody Johnson, Steve Bisciotti or Drunken Heir Irsay wearing a TB12 hat in public.

 

[The Brandon Five]

I don't really care if Brady can sue for defamation or not as long as he is exonerated of wrong doing in some court of law.

I want him to bring down the whole Jets cabal. Scorched earth policy. You think a competitive guy like Brady wants an asterisk next to all that he has accomplished? They f.cked with the wrong QB.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

3b. Sue Wells for $5 mil for shoddy reporting thus putting NFL in a bad position.

I'm not going to say Wells is exceptionally bright, but probably smart enough to have documented his marching orders (and have them electronically). Or, do you believe he reached his conclusion based on the evidence he found?

 

[Deus Irae]

To the vast majority of the NFL fanbase, dropping this case would be the MOST controversial thing Goodell could do.

Do you really believe Jets, Colts, Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, etc fans are going forget a dropping of this case 'more easily and quickly'? Last time I looked, New England was only one team out of 32.

If he drops the case against Brady he is toast.

That is why this has to go to the courts. It is Goodell's only way to save his job. Have the courts adjudicate for Brady and he can still hope to keep the support of the other 31 teams by pointing out that he did whatever he could.

Why do people keep making the broad generalizations about Goodell being toast? I wish it were true, but that claim's been made about a million times, yet he's still there. Anyone who's actually read the Wells report knows that the investigation found nothing. The easy out is to point out the lack of pre-existing data on the issue, mention that "we're going to study the situation", acknowledge that the data issue makes pinning anything on Brady an impossibility, and let it die. Those who wanted to see punishments can be directed to a $1 million fine and a pair of draft picks taken away.

Goodell wouldn't lose his job for that. Going to court and having the NFL look absolutely ridiculous, yet again, is far worse.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Rationality has no part in this

 

[Deus Irae]

Rationality has no part in this

This seems to be the biggest barrier. The easy out is there. The smart play is there. The right thing to do is there. The move that shows integrity is there.

And Goodell's probably not going to choose wisely.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

This seems to be the biggest barrier. The easy out is there. The smart play is there. The right thing to do is there. The move that shows integrity is there.

And Goodell's probably not going to choose wisely.

I have never been so wrong as with this brouhaha. I realized immediately on day one that the gas laws were in play. And after reading the many detailed & excellent analyses here by PhDs (I'm an engineer) I felt that certainly the league would completely exonerate the Patriots at the very least. In my fantasies I had Kensil outed and maybe the Colts lightly penalized. Dead wrong, as rationality was bypassed.

Given that I'm a science guy yet was dead wrong on what would happen with the science I've stayed out of these opinions on the law where I have no expertise.

Then again, I also thought that the Jets might have to swap a 4th or 5th rounder with us for tampering so I guess it shows I was completely out of touch with the NYFL.

 

[Oswlek]

Rationality has no part in this

Dead on. If it did, then Goodell would have announced that Brady's appeal hearing is unnecessary since all evidence suggests that not only did Brady have no knowledge of a deflation scheme, but there was no actual deflation.

Only someone committed to a presumption of guilt would even go through with the charade of an appeal, and, as such, we should expect no rational basis for whatever decision he makes.

 

[Ring 6]

To the vast majority of the NFL fanbase, dropping this case would be the MOST controversial thing Goodell could do.

Do you really believe Jets, Colts, Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, etc fans are going forget a dropping of this case 'more easily and quickly'? Last time I looked, New England was only one team out of 32.

If he drops the case against Brady he is toast.

Clearly Goodells job security is not going to be determined by how popular he is with various fan bases.

That is why this has to go to the courts. It is Goodell's only way to save his job. Have the courts adjudicate for Brady and he can still hope to keep the support of the other 31 teams by pointing out that he did whatever he could.

Why would owners fire him for doing his job and taking the Wells reports INVESTIGATION and giving his own CONCLUSION? I know that you will either respond that is was a waste of money or that he rendered the punishment. In response to that, part 1, I don't understand how an investigation with the wrong conclusion is money well spent, and an investigation with the correct conclusion is a waste. Only in the case where you think the NFL operates in a way that spending 5,000,000 to hurt the Patriots is fine, but spending 5,000,000 to clear them is wrong. Part 2, there is nothing unusual with hiring an investigator, accepting his conclusion, and then reviewing the other sides case in an appeal and finding it is more convincing.
Again, Goodell need not dispute a single fact, rather he must make a judgment on 2 very different interpretation of those facts.

 

[Ring 6]

Dead on. If it did, then Goodell would have announced that Brady's appeal hearing is unnecessary since all evidence suggests that not only did Brady have no knowledge of a deflation scheme, but there was no actual deflation.

Only someone committed to a presumption of guilt would even go through with the charade of an appeal, and, as such, we should expect no rational basis for whatever decision he makes.

I don't think it is realistic to expect Goodell to hire an investigator, read his report, and then disagree with his conclusion BEFORE having the other side argue its case.

 

[shmessy]

Clearly Goodells job security is not going to be determined by how popular he is with various fan bases.

It is with the 31 owners of those franchises however.

And not one of them possesses the blind, lap-dog loyalty to Goodell that Kraft does.

Kraft is clearly the outlier owner in the NFL.

They will drop him like a two ended lit cigar if he drops the Brady and Patriots punishments to nothing.

He will probably lighten Brady's punishment (and possibly, the Patriots' due to backroom dealing with his BFF for his loyalty). But complete vacating of the punishments would have to come in the second step from the court system.

Goodell completely washing it clean by himself means the end of his commissioner-ship.

 

[shmessy]

Again, Goodell need not dispute a single fact, rather he must make a judgment on 2 very different interpretation of those facts.

So you believe Troy Vincent acted completely on his own?

 

[BradyFTW!]

The Hardy reduction puts Gödel in a really bad bind, lmao.

Really, lmao, there's no way Gödel comes out of this looking good. The haters may be happy with him but to everyone else he is going to look every bit as bad as he should look, and that's hilarious imo.

Especially because the basis for Hardy's reduction is that the 10 games was inconsistent with past punishment for similar offenses. Even if we were to grant that balls were tampered with AND that Brady failed to cooperate with the investigation, prior precedent has established that the penalty for ball tampering is nothing and the penalty for refusing to turn over your phone is $50K.

So, based on the logic of the NFL's own hand-selected arbitrator, used in the appeal that was concluded three days ago, Brady's punishment should be reduced to a $50K fine and no suspension. And that's still operating under the assumption that a violation did occur in the first place.

 

[Oswlek]

Especially because the basis for Hardy's reduction is that the 10 games was inconsistent with past punishment for similar offenses. Even if we were to grant that balls were tampered with AND that Brady failed to cooperate with the investigation, prior precedent has established that the penalty for ball tampering is nothing and the penalty for refusing to turn over your phone is $50K.

So, based on the logic of the NFL's own hand-selected arbitrator, used in the appeal that was concluded three days ago, Brady's punishment should be reduced to a $50K fine and no suspension. And that's still operating under the assumption that a violation did occur in the first place.

Don't forget to add in that precedent disallows a "repeat offender" clause since the Jets/Suh weren't punished as such and Tom technically isn't a repeat offender.

There is no reasonable explanation for a suspension of any kind.

 

[RunAmok]

The 31 other owners ARE a subset of the haters.

I have yet to see Woody Johnson, Steve Bisciotti or Drunken Heir Irsay wearing a TB12 hat in public.

My point is that if Goodell decides to back off on Brady, the other owners will go along. Their fans may scream for a bit but that will not change anything. I am sure a number of jealous owners would want to see the Pats hamstrung but they will support Goodell. In fact the better play is for RG to fold - those same owners will be happy that the Pats lost 2 draft choices and the fans were distracted from the failures of their own teams.

 

[shmessy]

My point is that if Goodell decides to back off on Brady, the other owners will go along. Their fans may scream for a bit but that will not change anything. I am sure a number of jealous owners would want to see the Pats hamstrung but they will support Goodell. In fact the better play is for RG to fold - those same owners will be happy that the Pats lost 2 draft choices and the fans were distracted from the failures of their own teams.

I don't see many of those other owners as "lap-doggy" to Goodell as Kraft is.

How many of the Snyders, Irsays, Jerruhs are willing to "take one for the Commish" is arguable.