Predict Patrots 2010 record

[Kontradiction]

Not that I support AndyJohnson but with your logic let's look at the Jets, that is the supposedly number 1 defense of all time according to some.

Week; Team; (Offensive Rank)
1. St Louis (29th) Allowed 23 Points.

2. Ravens (13th) Allowed 24 points.

3. NY Giants (8th) Allowed 25 points.

4. Eagles (11th) Allowed 27 points.

After that the jets had some good defense stops even shutting out the Raiders 38-0 however they did lose to the Dolphins twice first time giving up 31 points and the second time giving up 30 points.

Again I'm not saying the pats defense was the number 5 defense however it's not as bad as some on this board make it out to be. Normally I just read everyone's comments but this just bugged me to much to ignore.

I didn't say the Pats were terrible. They were what they were: a decent defense. Good enough to shut down the lesser teams but not good enough to hang with the big boys. My other point is that points allowed isn't the know all, end all. You have to look deeper into it than that. You have to look at things such as offensive competition and what we allowed to that offensive competition through the air and on the ground. Last year, we had a hard time stopping anybody on the ground.

By the way, I'm not sure what you're referencing here. The Jets didn't play any of the four teams you mentioned. Maybe I'm just confused...

 

[gobesmug]

Wow what?

I think the Jets did have the number 1 defense last. My argument was not to discredit the Jets D, it was to show how rediculous it is to say that because the Pats D allowed the number 1 offense to score 34 points against them automatically makes them suck. As cleary the points don't tell the whole story.

 

[Rex Ryan's Gut]

Why would you post the preseason game stats?

 

[Kontradiction]

Wow what?

I think the Jets did have the number 1 defense last. My argument was not to discredit the Jets D, it was to show how rediculous it is to say that because the Pats D allowed the number 1 offense to score 34 points against them automatically makes them suck. As cleary the points don't tell the whole story.

LOL. Whatever you're on, I want some. I want you to find the part in my post where I said the defense sucked. I didn't. I just said they were a decent defense, but were not the 5th best defense in the NFL. And no, points don't tell the whole story. They only tell part of it. That's why I referenced offensive ranks, rushing stats, and passing stats along with them. Andy's argument is that points tell the whole story.

 

[gobesmug]

Face palm.

My mistake, I posted the preseason games. Sorry about that.

 

[gobesmug]

I never said that you thought the pats D sucked. I actually enjoy reading your post's as you're one the most sensible poster's on this forum. I just read this board and some people over react to any positive comment made about the defense.

 

[dhamz]

Wait, I thought it was the Colts and their fans who love their stats and quote them endlessly?

Isn't it about situational football here in NE? Haven't we have learned over the last decade that not all the numbers that make up those stats are created equal. Isn't it what you do in the clutch that matters infinitely more than what you do in the 4th quarter of a 24 point game?

 

[Kontradiction]

I never said that you thought the pats D sucked. I actually enjoy reading your post's as you're one the most sensible poster's on this forum. I just read this board and some people over react to any positive comment made about the defense.

While this is true, some people also overreact to the defense's ranking last season. Like I said, they were what they were: a decent defense. Glad you like my posts. I work... uh, hard on them.

 

[Rex Ryan's Gut]

While this is true, some people also overreact to the defense's ranking last season. Like I said, they were what they were: a decent defense. Glad you like my posts. I work... uh, hard on them.

I enjoy your posts as well Kontra. I think you always provide an honest assessment and are one of the more objective posters here.

Even though you think Faneca was a big loss.

 

[gobesmug]

I agree with your thoughts on the D. I think it has the potential in a couple of years to be a top D. The newbies just need mature along with Chung and Spikes taking thier rightfull spot as the vocal leaders on this D.

 

[Ring 6]

Points are what decide games. Only in your head does that translate to points allowed being the only valid way to judge a defense.

Only in your head did I say that. I said it is the BEST tool to judge with. Which one do you think is better?


[qote]If you're acknowledging that the Pats weren't a top-5 defense last year, then you've outright admitted that that's not the case. [/quote]

I have no clue what you are talking about here. I have said the Patriots were in the top 5 in points allowed, and that is the most important statistic.

The reality of the matter is that there are a ton of factors, based on the type of opponent and the team's offense, that strongly influence what a defense has to do. If the offense fumbles the ball away on the 10, , but the defense stonewalls the opponent and holds them to a FG, are you honestly going to claim that that D did the same job as one that surrenders a FG after a 70 yard march down the field? Are you going to ignore how heavily dependent scoring offense is on field position, and completely fail to acknowledge that defenses that get takeaways strongly influence points scored as well as points allowed?

Nope, those facts and how they differ from team to team would be your argument to adjust the meaning and significance of being ranked 5th.
If you were to show overwhelming evidence that the Patriots defense was more heavily affected than others by those factors in either direction, then it would warrant consideration. The fact that these differences exist does not mean the Patriots #5 ranking is not valid, the fact that their defense was aided more than others to the degree the difference between points allowed would be pertinent.

Eh, screw it, I'm done with this debate, not going to have it again. Everyone but you gets it.

I don't think you even understand what the argument is.
You are not reading what I am saying but rather reading what you want me to say.

 

[Ring 6]

You may want to try reading my posts. I'm using points on top of offensive competition to make my point. You keep sticking with points while ignoring the fact that we faced some VERY sub-par offensive competition. It's really that simple, Andy. But for argument's sake, and since we already saw how badly our defense fared against better competition, let's take a look at the other offenses we faced last year...

Week; Team; (Offensive Rank)
1. Buffalo (30th) - We allowed 24 points to the Bills, allowed Trent Edwards to go 15/25 for 212 yards and 2 TD's. Not exactly what you would want to see our defense doing against a sub-par quarterback leading a sub-par offense as we only forced Edwards into 10 incompletions.

2. Jets (20th) - Pretty decent game against another sub-par offense. We only allowed 16 points which looks like a good outing and, to be honest, we lost this game because of our offense. However, my previous assertion (that the run defense was not very good last year) stands out here still as we allowed the Jets a total of 119 yards on the ground in spite of the fact that we knew they were going to be run-heavy going into the game.

3. Falcons (16th) - Only allowed 10 points here. Pretty decent outing by the defense again but this game was a product of the Falcons playing poorly on both sides of the ball.

4. Ravens (13th) - This was probably our first true test of the season and while we only allowed 21 points, it could have (and should have if you ask Ravens fans) easily been 28-30+. We allowed 264 yards through the air but the most alarming stat was that we allowed Ray Rice to rumble for 103 yards on just 11 carries. Once again, points allowed isn't the end all, be all for this defense. They did not play like a top 5 defense in this game either and, sadly, this game would serve as a warning for what would happen later on in the season.

5. Broncos (15th) - This was really the first clue that something was off about this defense and that they weren't as good as they looked early on in the season. Even though they only allowed 20 points, they let Orton have whatever he wanted through the air. He had a career day against our defense (CAREER day) and only missed on 13 passes despite throwing 48 of them. The defense got absolutely picked apart by competition that wasn't even top shelf. On top of that, they once again allowed the opposing running game to have an good day. The Broncos offense put up 430 yards of total offense against our "5th best defense in the league". In the red zone (an important stat since our defense is supposed to bend, but not break), the Broncos were two for three for two TD's.

6. Tennessee (12th) - If any game shouldn't count because a team didn't show up, it's this game. The Titans simply did not show up to play at all. They quit from the moment they got into the snow and, not to mention, Kerry Collins was still their quarterback. EVEN THEN, though, we still allowed Chris Johnson over 100 yards on the ground. Funny because we knew it was coming but still couldn't stop it. This game, a farce for Tennessee, is one of the main reasons for our #5 ranking.

7. Tampa Bay (28th) - What else is new? This was the story of our defense in 2009. Pick on the Little Sisters of the Poor. Tampa Bay was just horrible all the way around last season so I guess we did what we should have here.

9. Miami (17) - Good win here. But it should have been. Henne was a new starting quarterback with limited weapons around him yet still threw for almost 220 yards for 1 TD. Once again, we couldn't stop the run to save our lives. The Brown/White/Williams trio rushed for a grand total of 133 yards against us. Miami also shot themselves in the foot a good amount of this game on offense as well as defense. But make no mistake, this was a very winnable game for them.

10. Indy (9) - As has already been explained, we got torched. Just like we did against every other top ten defense we played.

11. Jets (20th) - The Jets vaunted 20th ranked offense came into town and our defense quickly took advantage of the second worst starting QB in the league last year, which they should have. Even though we demolished Sanchez, we still allowed Thomas Jones 103 yards on the ground. Once again we got chewed up by the run even though we knew it was coming.

12. Saints (1) - I believe this was the first time in the Belichick era that we allowed 5 TD's through the air to a single quarterback. Brees ate this defense for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. We also allowed their running game over 100 yards on the ground. Look at what teams like the Jets did to this offense. Hell, even the Dolphins fared better. Against our defense, the Saints' racked up 465 yards in total offense. Top 5 defenses are supposed to play better against offensive competition like this.

13. Dolphins (17) - While you'll miss the point and undoubtedly point to points allowed here, I'll point to that on top of what else happened. Top 5 defenses are supposed to allow Chad Henne, Devone Bess, and Brian Hartline to put up huge days. Henne, in particular, looked like Montana at times there and threw for 355 yards and 2 TD's. He completely picked us apart. On the bright side, we only allowed the Dolphins' running game 88 yards. But when Chad Henne throws for 355 yards against you, allowing 88 yards on the ground looks like a minor accomplishment to say the least.

I'm going to stop there because I think I made my point. In case you're interested, the defense once again beat up on the Little Sisters of the Poor for three weeks straight before being torched by Houston again. Even then, they still allowed the Panthers (19) and Bills (30) to run for over 100 yards while holding the Jaguars (18) to a more modest amount of 98. You see, my point stands. This team did not play a lot of quality offensive competition. That's why their ranked is skewed. Top five defenses hold their opponents to under 100 yards on the ground more often than they don't. Top five defenses don't allow passing offenses the calibur of the Dolphins and the Broncos to have career days against them. Top five defenses do what they're supposed to against lesser offensive teams and still show up against the big dogs. While we were able to pick on the lesser offensive teams, we still didn't show up against the big dogs. So if you want to throw out the Houston game than be my guest. You should know that it only hurts your argument more than it helps it. On top of that if you're going to throw out the Houston game then you should also throw out the Tennessee game.

But you have not made any point. At least none relevant to my argument.
We allowed the 5th fewest points against a schedule that was basically exactly average.
No description of what you think a 5th best scoring defense should look like changes that.
You have described the 5th best scoring defense. Fine. How does that go anywhere near saying they were undeserving of that ranking.?
Describing what the 5th ranked defense did doesnt make the 6th ranked better, because they did worse.

 

[Ring 6]

Yeah, I guess we should remember that we're trying to argue with the guy who was, earlier in the offseason, attempting to defend Sam Aiken as a viable third option in our offense. This was only a 5th ranked defense last year due to below average offensive competition. Like I said, throw in games against teams like Green Bay, Minnesota, and San Diego (all teams we play this year), we're very likely out of the top ten.

OK, bolster your argument by making up something and attributing it to me? Nice.
Kontra, I went through the entire schedule and showed you our average opponent scored the average # of points of all NFL teams. How is that weak competition? That just makes no sense.
You are applying your opinion of the teams on the schedule without considering the facts.
Any team would have allowed more points if they faced more good teams.
You do realize that stats compiled against teams that duplicate the league average is the definition of unaffected by competition level, right?

 

[Ring 6]

I didn't say the Pats were terrible. They were what they were: a decent defense. Good enough to shut down the lesser teams but not good enough to hang with the big boys. My other point is that points allowed isn't the know all, end all. You have to look deeper into it than that. You have to look at things such as offensive competition and what we allowed to that offensive competition through the air and on the ground. Last year, we had a hard time stopping anybody on the ground.

By the way, I'm not sure what you're referencing here. The Jets didn't play any of the four teams you mentioned. Maybe I'm just confused...

But the teams that allowed more points either couldnt stop the bad teams as well or got lit up worse by good teams.
27 teams allowed more points, 4 allowed less. The ones that allowed more couldn't have beaten up on good teams and bad.
Maybe in your opinion the team that allowed the 5th fewest points wasnt very good, but how many of the teams that were less successful in stopping thier opponent from scoring were better?

 

[Ring 6]

I didn't say the Pats were terrible. They were what they were: a decent defense. Good enough to shut down the lesser teams but not good enough to hang with the big boys. My other point is that points allowed isn't the know all, end all. You have to look deeper into it than that. You have to look at things such as offensive competition and what we allowed to that offensive competition through the air and on the ground. Last year, we had a hard time stopping anybody on the ground.

By the way, I'm not sure what you're referencing here. The Jets didn't play any of the four teams you mentioned. Maybe I'm just confused...

Also, if you want to look deeper than points allowed, you can't just make things up, such as the competition was weak. The team should face good teams, bad teams and average teams as they did.
You would also have to compare the factors that you think make the ranking invalid to other teams.
I have not said that the Patriots were or were not the 5th best defense in the NFL. I have said based upon the most important factor about a defense they finished 5th best, yet fans of the Patriots are so spoiled by past success, they want to rip the defense and say it sucked, without justificaiton.
You are welcome to give justification as to how you would adjust that 5th ranking based on all the factors you think apply, but you have to consider if and how those factors affected the other teams which you are assuming they didnt apply to.

Here is an example.
The Colts allowed more points than the Patriots did.
However, while the Patriots allowed a lot with reserves on the field vs Houston the Colts mailed in 2 games and allowed 59 points to the Bills and Jets. Those games must be considered. By the same token, the Colts competition was pretty weak at first glance (the actual numbers may prove or disprove). On the other hand, the Patriots outscored the Colts, yet had a worse record. Again the Colts competition may have an impact on that, but they appear to have allowed points that were less devastating. If I am ranking defenses I would rank the Colts higher than the Patriots in 2009. Conversely if we took the same analysis of SF we would probably see how the Pats more difficult schedule overcomes the couple of points allowed difference.

Again, the point was never to rate the defenses in the NFL.
The point was to state that while 27 teams allowed more points than the Patriots, fans typically say our defense sucked, because they are spoiled.
There are no adjustments that can be made that would amount to the defense that allowed the 5th fewest points (not the only yardstick, but the most important one) to be less than above average.

 

[Ring 6]

Andy's argument is that points tell the whole story.

Show me where I ever said that. You made that up.
This is what is so stupid.
I am saying they ranked 5th in the most important category. Do you dispute that points allowed is the most important category of a defense?

 

[captain stone]

Yeah- if at all that is true, how does the team manage 8 wins?

Well, they do play Buffalo twice, plus Chicago & Detroit, and ManJudas...

 

[Deus Irae]

While this is true, some people also overreact to the defense's ranking last season. Like I said, they were what they were: a decent defense. Glad you like my posts. I work... uh, hard on them.

Perhaps a team by team vote?

For example:

Better defense, NE or BAL?

I'd expect that BAL, DAL, NYJ, SF, GB, SD and MIN would be agreed upon without too much argument, and you could go from there. Teams like Denver and Pittsburgh would be more difficult to place, because of their Jekyll/Hyde situations, but some approximate range could be worked out.

 

[Ring 6]

Yeah, I guess we should remember that we're trying to argue with the guy who was, earlier in the offseason, attempting to defend Sam Aiken as a viable third option in our offense. .

This is lame and you really owe an apology for that.
Please, please show me where I said that. Go search.
What you will find is that I said 3rd WR was not a huge problem for this team, because we had a 1 and 2 who caught over 200 balls, so the need for a #3 was minimal. Never, ever did I argue Sam Aiken was a good 3rd option, and you know that. Its disgraceful that you would stoop to that level to try to make he futile argument you are making sound better. You should have just taken the time to read the posts and realize you arent eve understanding what I said in this thread to begin with. (Either that or you are incapable of understanding that stats compiled against a set of teams that averaged the league average is competition neutral)

 

[captain stone]

Wait, I thought it was the Colts and their fans who love their stats and quote them endlessly?

Isn't it about situational football here in NE? Haven't we have learned over the last decade that not all the numbers that make up those stats are created equal. Isn't it what you do in the clutch that matters infinitely more than what you do in the 4th quarter of a 24 point game?

The fools who preach the "5th in Points Allowed" gospel need to read this; maybe, just maybe, they'll begin to understand.

This is not a 5th, or 10th, or even 15th-caliber defense. Period.