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Power rankings laugher...

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PatsRI, Jan 11, 2006.

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  1. PatsRI

    PatsRI PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    this one from Aaron Schatz.
    http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5237156

    I usually don't even care but I do read them and had to share this one. He has Washington, at least they're in the playoffs, and the Bengals ahead of the Pats. A team that lost last week ahead of the Pats? Also says the 10 game win streak in the playoffs is overrated.

    Just read that they used a statstical formula to rank them. Still funny though.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2006
  2. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Aaron Schatz is overrated. See, anyone can do that, try it.
     
  3. Chris

    Chris On the Game Day Roster

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    id be interested in hearing from him why 10-0 in the playoffs is overrated? 16-0 in the reg season could be if you dont win the superbowl..
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2006
  4. onegameatatime

    onegameatatime Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    10-0 is not overrated as an accomplishment for a franchise. But as a predictor of future success, I would agree it is overrated. I believe that the only people who started in the 2001 playoffs and are starting now are TB, Tedy, Willie, and Seymour ... whichy makes the franchise accomplishment even greater.
     
  5. upstater1

    upstater1 Pro Bowl Player

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    Aaron Schatz

    his pants.
     
  6. alamo

    alamo praedica numerum! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Have you considered reading the other thread on this posted today?

    Oh, and I agree the 10-0 is overrated, because it's just a byproduct of winning three Super Bowls. The REAL accomplishment is the Super Bowls and the fact they missed the playoffs in 2002 instead of squeaking in with a 99% chance of losing and breaking the streak means nothing.

    I guarantee that if they lose this week they won't care one bit about the streak, and people here will be downplaying it as well.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2006
  7. GameDay

    GameDay Practice Squad Player

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    I do something similar to DVOA ranking as a hobby. I must agree with Aaron Schatz. (It's like game theory - See the movies "A Beautiful Mind").

    Look at it this way. Say a person (called him Pat) does marathon 10 times with results ranging from 3 hours to 5 hours, average is 4 hours.

    If you must guess what his time would be the next run, what can
    you say? 4 hours?

    Let's say a Broncos guy runs with average 2.5 hours, but ranges
    from 2 to 5 hours, we have to rank the Bronc guy above the Pat guy, right?

    But the next run, can we be sure that the Bronc guy will beat the Pat guy?

    I have to say that in my estimate, the Broncos has a better chance of winning than the Pats, as they are more well rounded (run offense, run defense, pass O, pass D, special/kicking...) based on past 16-game record .

    (but past performance is not predictive of future returns)

    If we model the game statistically (sort of like Madden game simulators), being well rounded has a much better chance of winning than being excel at a few, but worse at the others. It's multiplicative, not additive. Like this:

    (0.1 x 0.7=0.07, which is less than 0.4 x 0.4= 0.16, even though
    0.1+0.7 = 0.4 +0.4=0.8)

    Pats' weakness is their running game and suspect 2ndary.

    So I likens the Broncos and Pats' chance to a game of rolling the dices.
    Let's say whoever have a bigger total, wins. The Broncos have 2 dices,
    the Pats, just one. So, the Broncos' expected score is 7, the Pats': 3.5.

    They should indeed be favored. But that's if they play 100 times.

    Just for one time? The Pats may roll a six, and the Broncos may roll a snake eye.

    "That's why they play the game" (and why it's entertaining).

    For me, the fun part is the psychological aspect of the game. Mental
    toughness is not intangible. They are measurable effects on athletes'
    performance. We can have confidence in Brady and Pats' coolness under
    pressure, but what about the Broncos at home? They can be just as
    tough and confident. So this "edge" may not be as much as the hype.

    I have noticed the Pats' "prone to panic" early this year, worse than
    2003 season. If the Broncos is up 10-0 and the Pats start to
    go gun every down, and Brady gets frustrated, it'll be a long night.
     
  8. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    You bored the **** out of me.
     
  9. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    At least Scatz got it right about McGinest: "Underhyped: Willie McGinest setting the all-time postseason sack record. When you hear that McGinest passed Bruce Smith and Reggie White, you figure he only did it because the Patriots have played so many more postseason games — but you would be wrong. McGinest took only 17 games to break a record Smith and White set in 20 and 19 games, respectively. Impressive."

    Gameday, you're absolutely right, but we really need to take into account the fact that BB has exceptional ability in getting his team ready for the playoffs. It's almost as if the Pats become a different team in post-season. Whether that's true or not will be tested this week, and if the Pats win, you can figure out how to weigh that into your calculations!
     
  10. Na_polian

    Na_polian On the Game Day Roster

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    You have now offically annoyed me. As you are doing so under a screen name while using the internet, you are in violation of Federal Law.

    Now, where did I write down the FBI's number...? Hmmm... I know it'a around here somewhere....
     
  11. GameDay

    GameDay Practice Squad Player

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    Yes, it can indeed be stupendously boring. But do you
    know that Game theory and risk calculations govern $trillion of
    insurance and financial industry? Your health insurance rate,
    your car, home, and your 401 k retirement, portfolio in hedge fund...
    all depend on it. (And US Homeland Security too!)

    A couple years ago, Judy Battista (?) of NewYork Times had
    an article about BB seeking out an article on risk/success 4th-down
    calculated by an economist (BB's degree is econ). I would not be
    surprised that BB's secret is his private calculation of risk/(prob
    of success) of each down in each situation.

    IBM Big blue now routinely beats the best human chest player
    (Kasparov). It may not be long that game day management and play calling
    will be best done with a computer. If fact, I knew a founder of a
    company (start-up in Mass) many years ago produced a software
    for digital video analysis of football plays used in NFL. By looking
    at a line-up, the computer can recall the most probable play from the
    database; and the coach can call a play best to counter it.

    Yeah I know, very very boring. ;)
    One man's hobby is another's torture.
     
  12. GameDay

    GameDay Practice Squad Player

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    Try this: :cool:
    http://www.fbi.gov
     
  13. fleabassist1

    fleabassist1 In the Starting Line-Up

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    #12 Jersey

    Here is my ranking's

    1. Patriots - Best qb? Best running defense? Best o-line? Best Coach? Yeah... uh... nothing can stop the patriots. Lets leave it at that.
    2. Bears - Amazing overall defense. Easily the best in the NFC... all they need now is a QB
    3. Seahawks - Matthasselbeck, and Sean Alexander. Great pair, the two... but their defense, and receivers are just not enough to win this year.
    4. Steelers - With the good defense, and mediocre offense, bettis will carry them to the championship where they will loose to the pats.
    5. Broncos - Very good running game... thats about it.
    6. Colts - Amazing offense... amazing choke artists. Having that much skill is wasted when you cant do *#(% in the playoffs.
    7. Panthers - Good run, but it all ends against the bears. Steve smith should be traded.
    8. Redskins - Its a fluke they are in.
     
  14. Brady'sButtBoy

    Brady'sButtBoy 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    #12 Jersey

    Flea ROCKS! Not enough Californication for me........yet!!!
     
  15. fleabassist1

    fleabassist1 In the Starting Line-Up

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    #12 Jersey

    he sure does. iv made it a priority to learn most of his stuff on bass :p
     
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