Over the last 5 games, here's what the Pats and Giants have done in terms of points scored. I'm going to refer to each opponent's defensive ranking in terms of points allowed. NYG (#9 scoring offense, 24.6 ppg) at NYJ #20 (22.7) - NYG scores 29 vs Dal #16 (21.7) - NYG scores 31 vs Atl #18 (21.9) - NYG scores 26 at GB #19 (22.4) - NYG scores 37 at SF #2 (14.3) - NYG scores 20 AVG RANK: 16.8 (20.6) - NYG scores 28.6 NE (#3 scoring offense, 32.1 ppg) at Den #24 (24.4) - NE scores 41 vs Mia #6 (19.6) - NE scores 27 vs Buf #30 (27.1) - NE scores 49 vs Den #24 (24.4) - NE scores 45 vs Bal #3 (16.6) - NE scores 23 AVG RANK: 17.4 (22.4) - NE scores 37.0 Over the past 5 games, the Giants have scored 4.0 ppg above their season's average. They've scored 8.0 on average more than what their opponents' defenses typically allow. Over the past 5 games, the Patriots have scored 4.9 ppg above their season's average. They've scored 14.6 on average more than what their opponents' defenses typically allow. The opposing defenses that the Giants and Patriots have faced over the last 5 games have been remarkably similar, and the two teams have scored roughly the same points per game more over this 5-game stretch than their season's average. So they're performing at roughly the same level relative to their offense's capability. One would expect, given the slightly below average nature of the average defenses these teams have faced, that both the Giants and Patriots would be scoring a little more than normal. And that's what we find. Over the course of the season, the Giants' defense was ranked #25 in points allowed (25.0 ppg) while the Patriots' defense was ranked #15 in points allowed (21.4 ppg). Over this 5-game stretch, the Giants have allowed 13.4 ppg, an improvement of 11.6 ppg from the regular season. Meanwhile, the Pats have allowed 19.6 ppg, an improvement of 1.8 ppg. So the Giants have really turned it up a notch on defense. Their 13.4 ppg allowed would have them ranked #1 in the NFL if that lasted a whole season. I would expect the Patriots to score under their season's average. The Patriots have also improved on defense. Their 19.6 ppg allowed would have them ranked #6 in the NFL if that lasted a whole season. I expect the Giants to score around their season's average. So if the Giants score around their season's average, +/- 3 points, we're looking at somewhere between 22-28 points scored by them. If the Pats score under their average somewhere between 3-10 points (which is reasonable given their performance against Baltimore and Miami, the other two good defenses they've played recently), we're looking at somewhere between 22-29 points scored by them. In other words, we should have a really close game with the scores in the 20's. And it totally could go either way. Get ready for a nail-biter, people.